基于突变级数的创业板成长性研究

发布时间：2018-05-20 13:49

本文选题：创业板 + 成长性指数　；参考：《证券市场导报》2013年04期

【摘要】：本文以2009-2011年度创业板上市公司财务指标为样本,应用突变级数方法计算出创业板公司的成长性指数,并以上市公司的总股本为标准确定权重计算整个创业板的加权成长性指数,进行成长性指数化研究。主要结果表明,2010年加权成长性指数涨幅为24%,如此高速的成长性却换来了2011年创业板价格指数高达35%的下跌,主要原因在于:第一,尽管有宏观政策的因素,但三高现象难辞其咎,其过度透支了创业板的成长性。因此,创业板发行方式应有所变革。第二,创业板上市公司大部分集中于产业链的中上游,属于制造密集型企业群体,这样单一化的行业结构也导致创业板整体成长性易于大幅波动。因此,今后应鼓励产业链下游企业的IPO来丰富创业板的行业结构,进而提高创业板整体成长的稳定性和代表性。
[Abstract]:Based on the financial indexes of gem listed companies in 2009-2011, the growth index of gem companies is calculated by using the method of abrupt progression, and the weighted growth index of the whole gem is calculated by determining the weight of the total share capital of listed companies. The index of growth is studied. The main results show that the weighted growth index rose by 24% in 2010, but such a high growth rate resulted in a 35% decline in the gem price index in 2011. The main reasons are: first, despite macroeconomic policy factors, But the three high phenomenon is to blame, its overdraft gem growth. Therefore, the gem issue mode should be changed. Second, the gem listed companies mostly concentrate in the upper and middle reaches of the industrial chain, belong to the group of manufacturing intensive enterprises, such a single industry structure also leads to the growth of gem as a whole easy to fluctuate significantly. Therefore, the IPO of the downstream enterprises of the industry chain should be encouraged to enrich the industry structure of the gem, and then to improve the stability and representativeness of the growth of the gem as a whole.
【作者单位】：吉林大学数量经济研究中心;吉林大学商学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目(2009JJD790015) 国家社科基金重大项目(10ZD&010) 国家自然科学基金项目(11071026)
【分类号】：F224;F832.51

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