山东省金融景气监测预警研究

发布时间：2018-05-24 06:44

本文选题：金融景气 + 指标指数　；参考：《中国海洋大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：当今世界的基本特征就是金融对经济发展的作用越来越大。随着全球化、市场化、区域化经济的发展，金融业自身的发展受到的极为重要的关注。金融市场、金融机构、金融人才、金融创新、金融国际化、金融生态环境等不断发展变化，金融业发展呈现出自己的规律和特点，时而繁荣、时而萧条，影响了经济社会的健康发展和群众对金融的预期。随着宏观经济景气监测预警的不断成熟，国民经济各个部门和产业的景气监测预警的研究逐步提上日程。金融业作为国民经济的重要行业，对其进行金融景气监测预警的研究，对制定合理的金融经济政策显得尤为重要。山东省是我国改革开放较早的东部沿海省份，经济较为发达，也是金融业发展最为迅速和繁荣的省份之一。金融的发展对山东省经济发展的重要性已经显现，省内诸市也是越来越重视其金融的发展，但由于种种原因，山东省尚未开展对金融业发展景气的监测预警研究，金融业发展的周期问题长期受到忽视。尤其是2008年发生的金融危机，金融业持续不景气，严重影响了山东省经济社会的发展。因此，，全面、深入、系统、科学的研究山东省金融景气的发展，及时掌握金融发展的波动情况，对山东省及早应对危机、制定合理的措施和方案，缓解对国民经济和社会发展的冲击，具有重大的理论意义和现实意义。论文梳理了金融景气监测预警的相关文献，整合了金融监测预警的基础理论和模型方法，给出了金融监测预警的相关概念的界定。结合山东省金融景气的影响因素的自身特点，设计了山东省金融景气监测预警的指标体系，根据数据特点，划分了山东省金融监测预警的先行、同步、滞后指标，构建了山东省金融景气综合指数、一致合成指数、一直扩散指数，开展了山东省金融景气分析及其与中国金融景气的相关性分析。在此基础上，根据数理统计方法，进行了金融景气监测的信号灯设计和区间划分，预测了金融景气指数的未来2年状态，进行了预测预警，根据预警情况，给出了山东省金融发展的相关政策建议。论文共分为五个部分：第一部分：基础研究，包括第一、二章。第一章立足于经济学视角，结合宏观经济监测预警相关概念，给出金融景气、先行、一致、滞后指标、经济预警、警源、警兆、一致扩散指数和一致合成指数等相关概念；界定金融发展综合水平的定义等内容。第二章阐述金融景气监测预警的基础理论，包括金融发展理论、经济预警理论、金融波动与金融周期理论、系统分析与评价理论和景气监测预警模型理论等理论，为后续开展金融景气监测预警研究奠定理论基础。第二部分为山东省金融监测预警指标的设计，包括第三、四章。第三章从金融环境和金融自身运行方面分析了山东省金融波动的影响因素，找出金融景气的关键指标。第四章根据指标体系设计的原则和依据，科学合理全面的构建山东省金融景气监测预警指标体系，并对指标体系的具体意义做了相关的解释。第三部分为山东省金融景气监测指数的构建和景气分析，包括第五、六章。第五章根据第二部分设计的指标，将指标分为先行、同步、滞后三类，构建金融景气一直扩散指数和一致合成指数，根据山东省金融发展综合水平构建山东省金融景气综合指数，根据扩散指数、合成指数和综合指数进行山东省金融发展水平的波动分析，分析金融周期的影响因素，在此基础上，分析了山东省金融景气与中国金融景气之间的相关性。第四部分为山东省金融景气预测预警分析。第七章设计金融景气信号，利用区间划分方法划分警戒度，明确警戒区间；根据组合预测模型预测山东省2年的金融指标数据，根据预测的结果确定金融景气情况，开展相关的监测预警，在此基础上确定警戒度，进行金融预警分析，给出相关的政策建议。第五部分为论文的最后一章，全文的总结与展望。这部分内容主要是对论文的研究意义、研究内容、研究结论做一个概括性的总结；给出论文在写作过程中存在的问题和不足，下一步需要改进的地方，进一步对论文做出完善。
[Abstract]:With the development of globalization , market - oriented , regional economy and financial innovation , financial internationalization , financial ecological environment and so on , the development of financial industry is becoming more and more important . With the development of financial market , financial institutions , financial talents , financial innovation , financial internationalization , financial ecological environment and so on , the development of financial industry presents its own laws and characteristics .

Shandong province is one of the provinces in the eastern coastal province of China , which is earlier in China ' s reform and opening up , the economy is more developed , it is one of the most rapid and prosperous provinces in the financial industry .

Based on the characteristics of data , the indicator system of financial distress monitoring and early warning in Shandong province is set up . According to the characteristics of data , the indicator system of financial distress monitoring and early warning in Shandong province is designed . According to the characteristics of data , the indicator system of financial distress monitoring in Shandong province is analyzed and its correlation analysis is carried out . According to the characteristics of data , the paper gives a forecast and early warning . According to the pre - warning condition , the paper gives the policy suggestion of financial development in Shandong province .

The first part is the basic research , including the first chapter and the second chapter . The first chapter is based on the perspective of economics , combines the concepts of macro - economic monitoring and early warning , and gives the relevant concepts such as financial prosperity , leading , consistent , lagging indicator , economic early warning , police source , warning sign , consistent diffusion index and consistent synthetic index .
The second chapter expounds the basic theory of financial distress monitoring and early warning , including the theory of financial development , economic pre - warning theory , financial fluctuation and financial period theory , system analysis and evaluation theory and the theory of early warning model theory , and lays a theoretical foundation for the follow - up on the early warning research of financial distress .

The second part is the design of the financial monitoring and early warning index in Shandong province , including the third chapter and the fourth chapter . The third chapter analyzes the influence factors of the financial fluctuation in Shandong province from the aspects of the financial environment and the financial self - operation , finds out the key index of the financial prosperity .

The third part is the construction and the economic analysis of the financial prosperity monitoring index in Shandong province , including the fifth chapter and the sixth chapter . According to the index of the second part design , the index is divided into three categories : first , synchronous and lagging behind , the financial prosperity index and the consistent synthetic index are constructed . According to the comprehensive level of the financial development in Shandong province , the fluctuation analysis of the financial development level in Shandong province is carried out , and the influence factors of the financial period are analyzed .

The fourth part is divided into the forecasting and early - warning analysis of the financial distress in Shandong Province . Chapter 7 designs the financial distress signal , divides the vigilance degree by the interval division method , and makes clear the warning interval ;
According to the combined forecasting model , the financial index data of Shandong province is predicted , and the financial prosperity is determined according to the results of the forecast , and relevant monitoring and early warning is carried out . On the basis of this , the vigilance degree is determined , financial early warning analysis is carried out , and relevant policy recommendations are given .

The fifth part is the final chapter of the thesis , the summary and prospect of the whole text . This part is mainly about the research significance , the research content and the research conclusion of the thesis .
The problems and shortcomings of the thesis in the process of writing are given . The next step should be improved , and the paper will be further improved .
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.7;F224

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