我国创业板上市公司股利分配现状研究

发布时间：2018-05-24 21:35

本文选题：创业板 + 股利分配　；参考：《西南财经大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：股利政策是一个悠久且经典的研究领域,也是截止现在仍然带着一层神秘面纱的一个谜题。股利政策,或者说股利分配,尽管是一个老生常谈的议题,但相关的研究却源源不断地为这一领域注入新的活力。从早期的股利无关论、信号传递理论、代理理论到后来的行为股利理论,研究视角不断扩展,使得这一领域的研究永远保持活力。目前难以用一个完整的框架将股利政策的所有研究囊括其中,股利分配主要的研究方向有股利是否影响公司价值、公司为什么要发放股利、股利水平的影响因素等。研究思路也呈现出百花齐放、百家争鸣的景象,公司的治理结构、股利的市场反应、管理层和投资者心态等这些因素均陆续被纳入到股利政策的研究中。由于股利分配作为财务管理活动的最后一环,理解股利政策其中的奥秘对于公司的治理有着很好的反馈作用。目前我国学者对于股利政策的研究都基于主板市场,目前尚无统一的结论可以完整剖析我国上市公司的各种“股利现象”。2009年,我国的创业板市场在深圳证交所拉开帷幕。由于主板和创业板存在宏观(制度)和微观(公司特征)上的二重差异,因此两个市场上市公司的股利分配也可能会呈现不同的模式,本文的研究目的就在于分析创业板上市公司的股利分配现状以及产生这种现象的原因。鉴于对于主板市场股利政策的研究目前尚未达成共识,这意味着在对创业板上市公司的股利分配现状进行分析时不能将思维局限在某一理论框架中。本文的分析思路是立足于实际情况,寻找可能能够解释该现象产生的原因,再将研究结果反馈到实践,提出相关的建议。本文的研究目的在于：第一,分析创业板上市公司的股利分配现状。第二,分析产生该现象的原因。第三,通过本文的分析为投资者决策提供参考。本文主要的研究内容包括股利分配现状描述、理论和现实原因阐述和实证检验三大部分。在对创业板上市公司的股利分配现状进行描述后,总结出其“高转增”、“高派现”和“集中派现”三个特点。由于创业板上市公司股本规模较小且资本公积充足,转增行为无可非议,因此本文将研究重点放在“派现”上,这也是创业板上市公司股利分配最吸引人眼球的地方。所谓的“高派现”并非绝对的,而是与主板上市公司进行对比后的相对结果,本文认为,主板上市公司的股利水平是一个合理的参照物,二者同处中国资本市场这一大环境下。而且,主板上市公司相对更为成熟理论上应发放更多的现金股利实际却不如创业板上市公司“大方”,更能体现创业板市场的“高派现”特征。根据对国内外关于股利政策研究的回顾和梳理,结合创业板上市公司的实际情况,本文从对上市公司管理层即股利决策制定者的心理分析出发,并同时考虑到上市公司自身特征,从而在一个较为完整的框架下展开分析。首先,以行为股利理论为切入点,将社会心理学运用到对股利分配的研究当中,提出羊群行为和管理层套现动机两个假设。羊群行为是指公司管理层在股利分配决策中的相互模仿。该理论既可以解释创业板上市公司的“集中派现”行为也可以用于解释“高派现”。管理层套现动机则是基于创业板上市公司普遍存在管理层持股这一事实,由于高管所持的股份流通存在一定限制,面对创业板市场的高市盈率却无法兑现获利,通过现金股利来获取现金利益则顺理成章。其次,从创业板上市公司的基本面信息为根据,提出超募资金回流和盈利持续能力两个假说。创业板上市公司在工P0期间融得大量超募资金,监管机构对于超募资金的使用有着严格的限制,当资金闲置无处可去时,公司可能将募得的资金作为现金股利返还给股东。提出盈余持续能力假说则是因为股利产生的最终来源是公司的盈余,从盈余的角度去分析公司的股利分配既能检验分红的合理性,也能考察这种分红行为在未来是否可持续。本文的实证结论为：(1)公司每股股利与行业内其他公司的股利水平没有显著的相关性,羊群行为假设不成立。创业板上市公司管理层在决定公司股利水平时并没有跟风行业内其他公司,说明市场的“集中高派现”现象并非由管理层的非理性因素导致。(2)公司每股股利与管理层持股比例正相关,管理层套现假设得到验证。创业板上市管理层确有通过发放现金股利从公司套取现金的嫌疑,但这种“套现”经后文的检验后并不损害公司的盈利能力,因此不能把管理层的套现动机视为一种非理性倾向。(3)公司每股股利与融资性净现金流成正比,超募资金回流假设得到验证。创业板上市公司现金股利其中一个来源是闲置的超募资金。尽管创业板上市公司被贴上了“高成长性”的标签,但实际的投资机会并不一定可观,超募资金作为现金股利回流到投资者手中,可能表明创业板上市公司暂时没有良好的投资机会或者是对超募资金的运营存在一定问题。(4)公司每股股利与扣除非经常损益后的每股收益成正比且公司的每股收益具有一阶自相关性,盈利持续能力假设得到验证。创业板上市公司很可能是在借股利向投资者传递公司未来发展和盈利能力的信息。尽管数据的限制使得我们无法对股利是否能传递有关公司未来盈余状况的信息进行验证,但由于我们相信特定一家公司的盈余持续能力在短期内不会改变,因此我们可以根据对历史数据的检验推出在未来盈余依然具有一定的持续性。本文的研究结论认为,创业板上市公司的“集中派现”和“高派现”行为主要是公司具有的持续盈利能力所致,非理性因素掺杂较少。当公司预计未来可以保持增长势头的情况下,将公司创造的现金用于回报股东是理所当然的,但与此同时,由现金股利所反映出的创业板上市公司可能存在的投资瓶颈问题也值得关注。根据研究结论,提出两点建议：(1)合理规划和使用超募资金。作为尚未步入成熟期的创业板上市公司,未来潜在的大量投资机会要求公司将超募资金留存并对其进行合理的规划和投放,不应因为暂时的投资瓶颈而将资金返回给投资者,而应运用超募资金为公司创造投资机会(比如进行研发、合作等)。同时监管机构也应在“引导”层面进一步去解决超募资金所带来的问题,而非停留在“要求披露”层面上。(2)严格监管创业板市场的股票流通。尽管公司管理层通过现金股利套现的动机并不影响公司的盈利能力,但这并不能排除依然存在一些持股管理人员抱有短期获利心理,尤其是面对市场如此高的市盈率而无法与之沾边。因此,监管机构应在保持创业板股票活力的同时配合相关措施使股票的波动控制在合理的风险范围内,缓解管理层由于无法在高股价的情况进行变现便转向上市公司内部进行套现的心理,也可以从软性氛围入手,培养投资者的长期投资意识。本文的预期贡献是：(1)结合行为财务的研究视角,同时考虑到上市公司的实际情况,克服了以往研究从单一角度研究问题的缺陷。(2)首次系统研究创业板上市公司的股利分配行为,为股利研究开辟了新领域。(3)对创业板上市公司股利分配的剖析可以深入理解公司治理和发展方面的问题以及管理层的心理行为,从而为完善公司的治理和发展提供相关建议,通过对股利分配这一行为的解读,也能为创业板市场的投资者提供关于股利现象的合理性的依据。本文研究的局限性在于：(1)创业板设立时间不足三年,因此本文研究所采用的数据只有2009和2010年两年,样本量不够大可能会使得研究结论的准确性有所下降。(2)在研究管理层动机时,本文只考虑了他们的羊群行为倾向和套现动机,然而目前关于讨论管理者行为因素对股利政策的影响的文献中还涵盖了比如管理者过度自信等更多的研究视角,本文并未建立一个完整的框架来尽可能将管理者心理和行为方方面面的因素囊括其中。(3)本文只能证实股利的确作为信号传递了公司盈利方面的信息,股利越高说明了公司截止当期的盈余持续性越高,但对于股利是否能反应未来盈余的持续性尚不能验证。
[Abstract]:Dividend policy is a long and classic field of research, and it is still a mystery that still has a mysterious veil. Dividend policy, or dividend distribution, is an old topic, but the related research has inject new vitality into this field. From the early dividend unrelated theory, signal transmission The theory, the agency theory and the later behavior dividend theory, the research perspective continues to expand, making the research in this field always alive. It is difficult to cover all the studies of dividend policy with a complete framework. The main research direction of dividend distribution is whether dividends affect the company value, and why the company pays dividends, The factors such as the influencing factors of the dividend level, and so on. The research ideas also show a hundred flowers blossom, a hundred schools of view, the corporate governance structure, the dividend market reaction, the management level and the investor mentality are all included in the dividend policy research. As the dividend distribution is the last ring of the financial management activities, the dividend policy is understood. The mystery of them has a good feedback effect on the corporate governance. At present, the research on dividend policy in China is based on the main board market. At present, there is no unified conclusion that can fully analyze the "dividend phenomenon" of Listed Companies in China for.2009 years. The GEM market in China opens in Shenzhen stock exchange. And there is a double difference between the macro (institutional) and microcosmic (corporate characteristics) of the gem, so the dividend distribution of the two listed companies may also present different models. The purpose of this study is to analyze the current situation of dividend distribution in the GEM listed companies and the reasons for this phenomenon.
In view of the lack of consensus on the dividend policy of the main board market, it means that the thinking can not be limited to a theoretical framework when analyzing the current situation of dividend distribution of the GEM listed companies. The analysis of this paper is based on the actual situation, looking for the possible explanation of the causes of the phenomenon, and then the research will be studied. The result is feedback to practice and relevant suggestions are put forward.
The purpose of this study is: first, analyze the current situation of dividend distribution of the GEM listed companies. Second, analyze the causes of the phenomenon. Third, through the analysis of this paper to provide reference for investor decision-making.
The main research contents of this paper include the description of current dividend distribution, theoretical and practical reasons and empirical testing three parts. After describing the current situation of dividend distribution of the GEM listed companies, it summarizes the three characteristics of "high transfer", "high school cash" and "centralized cash". In this paper, the focus of the study on the dividend distribution is the most attractive place for the dividend distribution of the GEM listed companies. The so-called "high school cash" is not absolute, but the relative results compared with the main board listed companies. This article believes that the main board listed companies are listed. The dividend level is a reasonable reference, and the two are in the same environment as China's capital market. Moreover, the listed companies of the main board should pay more cash dividends in theory than the "generous" of the GEM listed companies and reflect the "high school cash" characteristics of the GEM market.
According to the review and combing of the research on dividend policy both at home and abroad, combining the actual situation of the GEM listed companies, this paper starts with the psychological analysis of the listed company management, that is, the dividend policymaker, and takes into account the characteristics of the listed company at the same time, so as to analyze it in a more complete framework. First, behavior stock. The theory of profit is the breakthrough point. It applies social psychology to the study of dividend distribution, and puts forward two hypotheses: herd behavior and management level motivation. The herd behavior refers to the mutual imitation of the corporate management in the dividend distribution decision. The management level incentive is based on the fact that there is a general management shareholding in the GEM listed companies. Because there are some restrictions on the stock circulation held by the executives, the high earnings ratio of the gem is not profitable, and the cash benefit is reasonable by cash dividend. Secondly, from the gem. Based on the basic information of the listed companies, two hypotheses are put forward for the reflux of excess funds and the ability to sustain profits. The listed companies of the listed companies have a large amount of excess funds during the period of P0, and the regulatory agencies have strict restrictions on the use of super funds. When the funds are idle and there is no place to go, the company may raise funds as cash dividends. The hypothesis of earnings sustainability hypothesis is that the ultimate source of the dividend production is the company's surplus. The analysis of the dividend distribution from the perspective of earnings not only can test the rationality of the dividend distribution, but also can examine whether the dividend behavior is sustainable in the future.
The empirical conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) there is no significant correlation between the dividend per share of the company and the dividend level of other companies in the industry. The hypothesis of herding behavior is not established. The management layer of the GEM listed company does not follow the other companies in the company's dividend level. It shows that the "centralized high cash" phenomenon of the market is not the management level. The non rational factors lead to. (2) the dividend per share of the company is positively related to the proportion of the managerial ownership, and the management level is verified. The management layer of the gem does have the suspicion of cash withdrawal from the company by issuing cash dividends, but this "arbitrage" does not damage the company's profitability after the test. Therefore, it can not manage the management layer. The arbitrage motivation is regarded as a non rational tendency. (3) the dividend per share of the company is proportional to the net cash flow of the financing, and the hypothesis of the backflow backflow is verified. The cash dividend of the GEM listed company is one of the unused excess funds. Although the GEM listed companies are labeled with "high growth", the actual investment machine It may not be considerable, as the cash dividend returns to the investor in the hands of the cash dividend, it may indicate that the GEM listed companies have no good investment opportunities for the time being or have some problems with the operation of the excess funds. (4) the dividend per share of the company is proportional to the earnings per share after deducting non regular profit and loss and the earnings of the company are per share. The first order autocorrelation, the assumption of profitability sustainability is verified. The GEM listed companies are likely to be the information to transfer the future development and profitability of the company to the investor. Although the data restrictions make it impossible for us to verify whether the dividend can pass on the information about the future earnings of the company, but we believe that The sustainability of a particular company will not change in the short term, so we can prove that the future surplus still has a certain sustainability based on the test of historical data.
The conclusion of this paper is that the "centralism" and "high cash" behavior of the GEM listed companies are mainly caused by the company's sustained profitability, and the irrational factors are less doped. When the company expects to maintain the momentum of growth in the future, it is of course to use the company's cash for return to shareholders, but it is the same as this. At the same time, the potential investment bottlenecks of the GEM listed companies, reflected by cash dividends, are also worth paying attention to. According to the conclusions of the study, two suggestions are put forward: (1) rational planning and use of super fund. As a GEM listed company that has not entered the mature period, the future potential of a large number of investment opportunities will require the company to reserve funds. It should not be returned to investors because of the temporary investment bottleneck, but should be used to create investment opportunities for the company (such as R & D, cooperation, etc.). On the level of "request disclosure". (2) strictly supervise the circulation of stock market in the gem. Although the motivation of corporate management through cash dividend does not affect the profitability of the company, it does not exclude that some managers still have short-term profit psychology, especially in the face of such high market earnings ratio. Therefore, the regulatory agency should keep the volatility of the stock in a reasonable risk range with relevant measures while keeping the vitality of the gem stock. Long term investment awareness.
The expected contributions of this paper are: (1) combining the research perspective of behavioral finance and taking into account the actual situation of listed companies, it overcomes the shortcomings of the previous research from a single angle. (2) the first systematic study of the dividend distribution behavior of the listed companies of the gem has opened up a new field for the research of the dividend study. (3) the dividend of the GEM listed companies. The analysis can deeply understand the problems of corporate governance and development and the psychological behavior of management, so as to provide relevant suggestions for the improvement of corporate governance and development. Through the interpretation of the dividend distribution, it can also provide the rationalization for investors in the GEM market.
The limitations of this study are as follows: (1) the setting time of the gem is less than three years, so the data used in this study are only in 2009 and 2010, and the lack of sample size may reduce the accuracy of the research conclusions. (2) in the study of management motivation, this paper only considers their herd behavior tendency and the motivation of cash. At present, the literature on the influence of managers' behavior factors on dividend policy also covers more research perspectives such as overconfidence of managers. This paper does not establish a complete framework to include the factors of managers' psychological and behavioral aspects as much as possible. (3) this paper can only prove that dividends do serve as a signal. The higher the dividend information of the company, the higher the dividend is, the higher the earnings persistence of the company's cut-off period, but it can not be verified whether the dividend can reflect the sustainability of the future earnings.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.51;F233;F224

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