我国对外贸易结构对OFDI的影响研究

发布时间：2018-05-26 20:28

本文选题：对外贸易结构 + OFDI　；参考：《浙江工商大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：20世纪80年代,特别是90年代以来,经济全球化已表现出不可逆转的发展态势。进行国际贸易实现商品的流动,以及开展对外直接投资实现生产要素的流动,是一个经济体融入经济全球化的重要途径,二者之间存在着什么样的作用机制以及如何协调二者的发展以促进国家或地区的经济发展就成为了政府和经济学界亟待研究的重要课题,具有十分重要的理论意义和现实意义。本文通过对国内外有关对外贸易与对外直接投资关系的相关研究进行系统梳理发现,关于对外贸易对OFDI影响的研究往往只注重对外贸易规模方面,忽略了对外贸易结构方面的研究。因此,本文从我国对外直接投资动因的视角出发对贸易结构影响OFDI的内在机制进行了理论分析,然后运用我国对外贸易与对外直接投资数据,在构建相应的贸易结构指标基础上,采用动态面板模型,使用GMM估计方法对我国对外贸易结构对OFDI的影响以及影响OFDI的其他因素进行了实证考察,从而为政府决策者提供了有关制定贸易政策和“走出去”战略的理论和经验依据。通过研究,本文得到了一下主要结论：第一,尽管从总体上来说,我国对外贸易结构呈现出了良好的发展趋势,但是,现阶段的对外贸易结构还是存在着贸易商品结构层次不高和贸易区域结构过度集中化等诸多矛盾和问题；我国对外直接投资发展迅猛,但规模与传统对外投资大国差距仍然较大；行业分布较广泛,但重点突出；并且主要流向亚洲和拉丁美洲,洲际分布比较集中；从发展基本趋势来看,我国对外贸易结构与对外直接投资之间存在紧密的联系。第二,对我国与发达国家组的实证分析表明：工业制成品出口比重和贸易结合度指数对我国在发达国家的直接投资有显著的促进作用,而总产品出口竞争力却会产生抑制作用；初级产品进口比重和集中度以及工业制成品出口集中度和竞争力对OFDI的影响并不显著。不同的是,对我国与发展中国家组的分析显示：制成品出口竞争力与我国在发展中国家的直接投资显著正相关,而初级产品进口集中度和贸易结合度指数却为显著负相关；我国制成品出口比重和总产品出口竞争力对OFDI没有显著的影响。第三,为促进我国企业对外直接投资的发展,企业应选择正确的对外投资区位战略；扩大对发达国家制成品的出口,进而带动和促进我国对发达国家的投资；加大我国具有比较优势的制造业对发展中国家的直接投资,这样不仅可以解决国内市场这些产业产品供过于求的问题,而且还可以集中资源发展国内优势产业,促进国内产业结构优化升级。
[Abstract]:Since the 1980's, especially since 1990's, economic globalization has shown an irreversible development trend. The flow of goods through international trade and the flow of factors of production through outward direct investment are important ways for an economy to integrate into economic globalization, What kind of mechanism exists between the two and how to coordinate their development to promote the economic development of the country or region has become an important subject to be urgently studied by the government and the economic circles, which has very important theoretical and practical significance. This paper makes a systematic study on the relationship between foreign trade and foreign direct investment, and finds that the research on the impact of foreign trade on OFDI is usually focused on the scale of foreign trade. The research on the structure of foreign trade has been neglected. Therefore, from the perspective of the motivation of China's foreign direct investment, this paper makes a theoretical analysis of the internal mechanism of the influence of trade structure on OFDI, and then applies the data of China's foreign trade and foreign direct investment. On the basis of constructing corresponding trade structure index, using dynamic panel model and GMM estimation method, this paper makes an empirical study on the influence of China's foreign trade structure on OFDI and other factors affecting OFDI. Therefore, it provides the theoretical and empirical basis for government policy makers to formulate trade policy and "go out" strategy. The main conclusions are as follows: First, although on the whole, China's foreign trade structure has shown a good trend of development, At the present stage, there are still many contradictions and problems in the foreign trade structure, such as the low level of the structure of trade commodities and the over-centralization of the regional structure of trade. However, there is still a large gap between the scale and the traditional large countries of outward investment; the industry is widely distributed, but the focus is prominent; and the main flows are to Asia and Latin America, and the intercontinental distribution is relatively concentrated. From the basic trend of development, There is a close relationship between China's foreign trade structure and foreign direct investment. Secondly, the empirical analysis between China and the developed countries shows that: the proportion of manufactured products export and the trade combination index have a significant role in promoting China's direct investment in developed countries, while the total export competitiveness of products will have a restraining effect; The import proportion and concentration of primary products and the export concentration and competitiveness of manufactured goods have little effect on OFDI. The analysis of China and developing countries shows that the competitiveness of manufactured goods exports is significantly positively correlated with China's direct investment in developing countries, while the primary commodity import concentration and trade combination index are significantly negative correlation; The proportion of manufactured goods and the competitiveness of total exports have no significant effect on OFDI. Third, in order to promote the development of foreign direct investment of Chinese enterprises, enterprises should choose the correct location strategy of foreign investment, expand the export of manufactured goods to developed countries, and then promote and promote the investment of our country in developed countries. By increasing direct investment in developing countries by manufacturing industries with comparative advantages, China can not only solve the problem of oversupply of these industrial products in the domestic market, but also concentrate resources to develop domestic superior industries. To promote the optimization and upgrading of domestic industrial structure.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F752;F832.6

【参考文献】