个人住房抵押贷款和房价的长期均衡与短期波动关系:1997—2009

发布时间：2018-05-27 23:24

本文选题：个人住房抵押贷款 + 住房价格　；参考：《湘潭大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2010年04期

【摘要】：利用1997—2009年个人住房抵押贷款和住房价格水平的时间序列数据,采用协整和格兰杰因果检验方法以及误差修正模型。从长期来看,个人住房抵押贷款和住房价格存在长期均衡关系和双向影响机制。从短期来看,当个人住房抵押贷款的短期波动偏离长期均衡时,将以-0.67的调整力度把非均衡状态拉到均衡状态。为了防范和化解个人住房抵押贷款快速增长和住房价格波动带来的消极后果,政府应加快金融市场建设、居民应提升风险防范意识等。
[Abstract]:Based on the time series data of individual mortgage loan and housing price level from 1997 to 2009, cointegration and Granger causality test method and error correction model are used. In the long run, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship and two-way influence mechanism between personal housing mortgage loan and housing price. In the short term, when the short-term fluctuations of individual mortgage loans deviate from the long-term equilibrium, the non-equilibrium will be pulled to equilibrium with the adjustment of -0.67. In order to prevent and resolve the negative consequences of the rapid growth of individual housing mortgage loans and the fluctuation of housing prices, the government should speed up the construction of financial markets, and residents should enhance their awareness of risk prevention.
【作者单位】：湘潭大学商学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目(项目编号:09BJL017) 教育部项目(项目编号:08JA790112) 湖南省社科规划办项目(项目编号:09YBB374)
【分类号】：F831

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