人民币升值速度对中国区域产业的影响研究——基于MS-VAR的非对称效应分析

发布时间：2018-06-01 22:47

本文选题：人民币升值 + 产业产出波动　；参考：《中国工业经济》2013年12期

【摘要】：人民币升值速度的快慢不同,可能会对中国东中西部区域的三大产业产生非对称的冲击。本文将2004—2012年期间中国31个省份三大产业季度产出数据加总为东中西部区域总产出数据,使用MS-VAR模型分析了人民币汇率升值对东中西部地区第一、二、三产业产出波动的非对称影响。研究表明,汇率制度改革以来的人民币升值对三大区域第一、二产业产出的影响表现出明显的两区制特征,对第三产业产出的影响则没有明显差异,这种不同的区制可划分为快速升值区制和缓慢升值区制。脉中响应分析表明,人民币汇率升值在快速升值区制中对各区域第一、二产业产出的冲击更大。从区域产业比较的角度看,人民币快速升值会对东部地区的第一产业、中部地区的第二产业,以及西部地区的第一、二产业的产出产生较大不利影响。因此,人民币汇率制度的改革应充分考虑快速升值对东中西部地区不同产业、特别是中西部地区主导产业的不利影响。
[Abstract]:The rate of appreciation of the yuan varies, which may have an asymmetric impact on the three industries in China's east, west and west. In this paper, the quarterly output data of the three major industries in 31 provinces of China from 2004 to 2012 are added to the total output data of the eastern, central and western regions, and the MS-VAR model is used to analyze the first and second effects of RMB exchange rate appreciation on the eastern, western and western regions. The asymmetric effect of output fluctuation in three industries. The study shows that the effect of RMB appreciation on the output of the first and second industries in the three major regions has obvious characteristics of two regions since the reform of the exchange rate regime, but there is no obvious difference in the impact on the output of the tertiary industry. This kind of district system can be divided into rapid appreciation zone system and slow appreciation zone system. The in-pulse response analysis shows that the appreciation of RMB exchange rate has a greater impact on the output of the first and second industries in the rapid appreciation zone system. From the perspective of regional industrial comparison, the rapid appreciation of RMB will have a great negative impact on the output of the primary industry in the eastern region, the secondary industry in the central region and the output of the first and second industries in the western region. Therefore, the reform of RMB exchange rate system should fully consider the adverse effects of rapid appreciation on different industries in the east, west and west, especially the leading industries in the central and western regions.
【作者单位】：武汉大学经济发展研究中心;武汉大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大项目“完善宏观金融调控体系研究——基于针对性、灵活性和前瞻性的视角”(批准号12&ZD046) 教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“逆周期宏观调控政策与中国经济平衡增长研究”(批准号10JJD790003)
【分类号】：F832.6;F121.3;F224

【参考文献】