基于建筑业货币政策非对称效应研究

发布时间：2018-06-05 01:39

本文选题：货币政策产业非对称 + 形成机理　；参考：《西南大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着金融全球化的不断深化,对于如何把握好货币政策的执行力度俨然成为了各国中央银行遇到的棘手问题。为什么相同力度下的政策却未能达到过去良好的调控效果?为什么等量的降息或加息对经济冲击的幅度却不尽相同?为什么有的地方对货币政策反应灵敏,而另一些地方反应迟缓?经济学家们对于这些现实问题苦苦思索,最终得出结论,是由于货币政策存在非对称效应。现实生活中,由于不同地区、行业在各自的经济阶段中对同一货币政策的敏感程度有所差异,所以中央银行难以准确估量货币政策对宏观经济的影响程度,从而难以把握货币政策的调控力度。货币政策的有效性是伴随着客观条件而呈现出的规律性变化,通常将这种现象称之为货币政策的非对称效应。货币政策的非对称效应体现在四个方面：一是时间层面,货币政策在经济衰退期的效果强于货币政策在经济繁荣期的效果；二是区域层面,货币政策在金融欠发达地区的效果强于货币政策在金融发达地区的效果；三是产业层面,货币政策对劳动密集型产业的影响效果强于货币政策对资本密集型产业的影响；四是企业层面,货币政策对中小型企业的作用强于货币政策对大型企业的作用。本文根据先前学者的研究,发现货币政策非对称性在产业层面的研究十分浅薄,因此本文意图着力研究货币政策产业非对称性。本文从不同角度分析货币政策产业非对称的形成机理。首先,主观预期的非对称调整。古典经济学假定经济人是完全理性的。事实上,完全理性经济人的假设并不符合现实状况。现实社会中,经纪人的心里会受到多种因素的预期影响,每个行业经济主体所掌握的信息不可能是完全对称的,因而经济人很难最大化地按照理性想法来进行预期决策。所以,有限理性的假设是货币政策产业非对称性假设的存在前提。行业经济人的心理预期会受到通货膨胀趋势、边际报酬率和市场情绪等多种因素的影响,并且公众预期和市场情绪调整是不对称的,种种因素都使得货币政策传导机制具有了不确定性,并最终产生货币政策的产业非对称效应；第二,名义粘性与实际粘性。工资和价格之所以不会随着冲击灵活调整,是因为存在交错工资合同、菜单成本、工会力量和政府干预等。因此名义粘性会随着冲击的方向和幅度不同而存在非对称性。凯恩斯主义假设,行业的工资和价格向下调整存在刚性、向上调整十分灵活,以及要素的边际报酬递减,使得总供给曲线为凸。正因为总供给曲线是凸型,我们很容易判断出货币政策对真实产出具有非对称的影响；第三,货币政策传导渠道。Lamont将产业的“债务积压”定为货币政策非对称性的潜在原因,即新项目的投资收益都流向了债权人,造成新项目的流动性支持不足。此外,金融加速效应在经济周期不同阶段亦会产生不同。资产负债表状况差的小规模行业投资受影响最大,而对中等规模及以上规模的行业,在非经济衰退期和经济衰退期金融加速器的效果都不明显。再者,在市场经济体制下,经济结构调整不再单纯体现为政府的主导行为,而是由微观经济主体根据价格信号的引导来选择配置的渠道、数量和结构。作为资本价格信号的利率显然成为配置资源的基础。因此选择利率政策作为分析货币政策的行业的非对称机理问题。利率变化对行业的影响程度受制于很多因素,如：行业发展阶段、规模报酬因子、技术水平、市场结构、产品的需求因素、要素密集度等。为了说明原理起见,本文引用一个对资本具有有同等偏好的两部门模型的例子,该例子说明：存在资本约束和两部门对资本有同等偏好的情况下,要素密集程度不同会产生不同的货币政策产业效应；最后,产业结构的非对称。EMU曾经是世界上唯一的跨国单一货币区,此外欧洲中央银行(ECB)在区域内计划了统一的货币政策,这些计划的实施为研究货币政策效应非对称性与产业结构之间的关系提供了大量的素材。本论文的研究思路严格遵循着理论与实践相结合的发展规律。首先,导论中叙述了本论文的选题依据与意义、研究思路与目标、技术路线以及研究内容与方法。同时概括了国内外考察货币政策非对称的研究现状,重点阐述货币政策在产业层而非对称效应的文献。第二章阐述货币政策产业非对称性的相关理论。第三章论述该现象的形成机理。第四章以建筑业为例,利用具体实证分析证实的确存在货币政策产业的差异性。第五章提出相应的政策建议。最后一章进行本论文的结论与不足。全文通过建立建筑业子行业的VAR系统,发现不同行业的产出对广义货币供应量(M2)滞后一、二期时反应的方向与大小不同,这说明建筑业子行业的确存在货币政策产业非对称性。同时通过脉冲响应函数,可以具体得到广义货供应量(M2)冲击各个子行业的不同趋势和程度方向,并且每个子行业的受到M2的影响持续周期也有差异,所以本文的实证从各个方面均可证明货币政策效应在建筑业的子行业中具有差异性,即非对称性。本文也存在不足,第一，全文由于数据的局限性,没有对建筑业行业进行整体研究。第二,有待进一步研究股票和汇率的引入是放大了还是缩小了货币政策的产业非对称效应。在清楚掌握货币政策非对称性效应的形成机理后,根据全文实证得到的相应结论,中央银行应当根据经济发展阶段的不同以配合相应的货币政策,并根据产生的非对称性规律实施有差别的货币政策,充分发挥货币政策结构性功能,实施部分差别化操作。可以从以下三方面考虑：一,依照经济周期灵活调节货币政策力度；二,依照经济发展阶段调整货币政策力度；三,依照产业非对称特点实施结构化的货币政策。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of financial globalization, how to grasp the implementation of the monetary policy has become a difficult problem for the central banks of all countries. Why does the policy under the same dynamics fail to achieve good control effect in the past? Why are the same amount of interest rate reduction or interest rate increasing to the extent of the economic impact? Why Some places are sensitive to monetary policy, and other places are slow to react? Economists are painfully thinking about these real problems and finally come to the conclusion that there is an asymmetric effect in monetary policy. In real life, the industry is less sensitive to the same monetary policy in their respective economic stages because of different regions. Therefore, it is difficult for the central bank to accurately estimate the degree of monetary policy's impact on the macro economy, so it is difficult to grasp the intensity of monetary policy regulation.
The effectiveness of monetary policy is a regular change accompanied by objective conditions, which is often referred to as the asymmetric effect of monetary policy. The asymmetric effect of monetary policy is reflected in four aspects: one is the time level, and the effect of monetary policy in the economic recession is stronger than the effect of monetary policy in the period of economic prosperity. Two is the regional level, the effect of monetary policy in the underdeveloped areas is stronger than the effect of monetary policy in the developed areas; three is the industrial level, and the effect of monetary policy on labor intensive industries is stronger than the effect of monetary policy on capital intensive industries; four is the enterprise level, and the monetary policy is made to small and medium enterprises. The role of a large enterprise stronger than monetary policy.
According to the previous scholars' research, we find that the asymmetry of monetary policy is very shallow at the industrial level. Therefore, this paper aims to study the asymmetry of the monetary policy industry. This paper analyzes the asymmetric formation mechanism of the monetary policy industry from different angles. First, the asymmetric adjustment of the subjective pre term. The classical economics assumes the economy. A man is completely rational. In fact, the hypothesis of a fully rational economic person does not conform to the reality. In a real society, the heart of a broker will be influenced by many factors, and the information mastered by the economic subject of each industry can not be completely symmetrical, so it is difficult for the economic man to make the expected decision according to the rational idea. Therefore, the hypothesis of limited rationality is the precondition of the asymmetric hypothesis of the monetary policy industry. The psychological expectation of the industry economy person will be influenced by a variety of factors such as inflation trend, marginal return rate and market sentiment, and the public expectation and market sentiment adjustment are unsymmetrical, and all kinds of factors make the monetary policy transmitter It has an industrial asymmetric effect that has uncertainty and ultimately produces monetary policy; second, nominal stickiness and real stickiness. Wages and prices are not adjusted flexibly with the impact, because there are interlaced wage contracts, menu costs, Union forces and government intervention. Therefore, the nominal stickiness will follow the direction and extent of the impact. According to the Keynes hypothesis, the adjustment of wages and prices in the industry is rigid, the adjustment is very flexible, and the marginal return of the factors decreases, which makes the total supply curve convex. Because the total supply curve is convex, we can easily determine the asymmetric effect of monetary policy on real output. Third, the monetary policy transmission channel.Lamont determines the "backlog of debt" in the industry as a potential reason for the asymmetry of monetary policy. That is, the investment income of the new project flows to the creditor, resulting in the lack of liquidity support for the new project. In addition, the financial acceleration effect is also different in the different stages of the economic cycle. The balance sheet situation is poor. The small scale industry investment is most affected, and the effect of the financial accelerator in the non economic recession and the recession period is not obvious to the medium scale and above scale industry. Furthermore, under the market economic system, the adjustment of the economic structure is no longer simply reflected as the leading behavior of the government, but is based on the price signal based on the microeconomic subject. The interest rate policy as the basis of the allocation of resources is obviously the basis of the capital price signal. Therefore, the interest rate policy is chosen as the asymmetric mechanism of the analysis of the monetary policy industry. The impact of the interest rate change on the industry is subject to a lot of factors, such as the development stage of the industry, and the cause of scale reward. In order to illustrate the principle, this article quotes an example of a two sector model with equal preference for capital. This example shows that in the case of capital constraints and the two sector is equally good in capital, the difference in factor density will produce different factors. The effect of monetary policy industry; finally, the asymmetric.EMU of the industrial structure was once the only multinational single currency area in the world, and the European Central Bank (ECB) planned a unified monetary policy in the region. The implementation of these plans provided a large amount of material for the study of the relationship between the asymmetric effect of monetary policy and the industrial structure.
The research ideas of this paper strictly follow the law of combination of theory and practice. First of all, the introduction describes the basis and significance of the topic, the research ideas and objectives, the technical route and the content and method of research. At the same time, it summarizes the current research status of the study of monetary policy at home and abroad, and focuses on the production of monetary policy in production. The second chapter expounds the relative theory of the asymmetric effect of the monetary policy industry. The third chapter discusses the formation mechanism of the phenomenon. The fourth chapter takes the construction industry as an example, and uses concrete empirical analysis to confirm the difference in the monetary policy industry. The fifth chapter puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions. The last chapter carries out this theory. The conclusion and deficiency of the article.
Through the establishment of the VAR system of the construction industry, it is found that the output of different industries is lagging behind the broad money supply (M2), and the direction and size of the reaction are different in the two period. This shows that the construction industry does have the asymmetry of the monetary policy industry. At the same time, the generalized cargo supply (M2) can be obtained by the impulse response function. There are different trends and degrees in each sub industry, and the continuous cycle of the impact of M2 on each sub industry is also different. So the empirical analysis of this paper can prove that the monetary policy effect is different in the sub industry of the construction industry, that is, the asymmetry. This paper also has shortcomings. First, the full text is limited to the data. There is no overall research on the construction industry. Second, it needs to further study whether the introduction of stock and exchange rate has enlarged or narrowed the asymmetric effect of the monetary policy.
After a clear grasp of the formation mechanism of the asymmetric effect of monetary policy, according to the corresponding conclusion of the full text, the central bank should cooperate with the corresponding monetary policy according to the different stages of economic development, and carry out the different monetary policy according to the unsymmetrical law of the production, give full play to the structural function of the monetary policy and implement it. Some differential operations can be considered from the following three aspects: first, flexible regulation of monetary policy in accordance with the economic cycle; two, to adjust monetary policy in accordance with the economic development stage; and three, to implement structured monetary policy in accordance with the asymmetric characteristics of industry.
【学位授予单位】：西南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F821.0;F407.92;F224

【参考文献】