人民币国际化所面临的困难及其解决途径

发布时间：2018-06-06 15:45

本文选题：人民币国际化 + 离岸国债　；参考：《山东大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文的研究内容是将人民币国际化中会碰到的三个主要的困难,即国际化清算网络、货币海外留存和离岸国债市场,以简单明了的方式进行量化分析,并及阐述三者之间的前后顺序关系,提出个人存款保险制度保障金额、离岸市场发行地点和资金来源的安排方案,以及人民币发行数量增幅的计算要扣除海外留存和进行顺逆差调整。具体调整公式如下：ΔM2-美元海外流失系数=(1+△GDP)*(1+△CPI)也就是式子左边等于美元的国内实际ΔM2,式子右边等于名义GDP。由上述式子可见,在计算人民币是否超发的时候首先要减掉境外人民币留存量。2013年中国流通中货币(Mo)年末余额5.86万亿元,全年净投放现金3899亿元。全年GDP增长7.7%,CPI增长2.6%。年末,国家外汇储备余额为3.82万亿美元。人民币汇率为1美元兑6.0969元人民币。3899/(58558-10000)*100%=8.02%即人民币的实际增发率为8.02%在实行金属货币时之所以不会形成内贬外升的货币现象是因为多于的金属货币会自动进入贮藏阶段。所以货币发行量还要进行贸易的顺逆差调整：国内货物实际增加量=[(当期GDP-当期NX)-(前期GDP-前期NX)]/(前期GDP-前期NX)
[Abstract]:The research content of this paper is to analyze the three main difficulties in the internationalization of RMB, namely, the international clearing network, the offshore currency retention and the offshore treasury bond market, and make quantitative analysis in a simple and clear way. It also expounds the order relationship between the three, and puts forward the plan of arranging the amount of personal deposit insurance system, the place of issue and the source of funds in the offshore market. And the amount of renminbi issued to increase the calculation of overseas retention and adjustment of the deficit. The specific adjustment formula is as follows: 螖 M _ 2-US dollar overseas loss coefficient / (1 GDP / 1 CPI) is the actual domestic 螖 M _ 2 on the left side of the formula equal to the US dollar, and the right side is equal to the nominal GDP. The formula shows that the first step in calculating whether the yuan is overissued is to reduce the amount of renminbi retained outside the country. China's currency in circulation in 2013 ended the year with a balance of 5.86 trillion yuan, with a net cash of 389.9 billion yuan for the year. GDP growth for the whole year was 7. 7% and CPI was 2. 6%. At the end of the year, the balance of the State's foreign exchange reserves was US $3.82 trillion. The RMB exchange rate of RMB 1 is RMB 6.0969 RMB. 3899 / 10000 RMB / RMB 8.02%, that is, the actual increase rate of RMB issuance is 8.02%. The reason why the phenomenon of internal devaluation and extraneous appreciation does not occur when the metal currency is implemented is because more than one metal currency will automatically enter the storage stage. So currency circulation has to adjust the trade deficit: the real increase in domestic goods = [(current GDP- current NX- (Prophase GDP- Prophase NX)] / (Prophase GDP- Prophase NX)
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F832.6

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