汇率变动、贸易自由化与中国经济协调发展研究

发布时间：2018-06-10 09:08

本文选题：汇率 + 贸易自由度　；参考：《东北师范大学》2012年博士论文

【摘要】：自1978年改革开放以来的34年中,中国经济高速增长,经济实力和综合国力显著增强。我国经济总量在世界经济中所占的份额由2002年的4.4%提高到2011年的10%左右,对世界经济增长的年平均贡献率超过20%,成为仅次于美国的世界第二大经济体。但与此同时,资源消耗和环境压力巨大,能源消费总量已经占世界总量的20.3%。产业结构不尽合理,城乡居民收入差距持续扩大,到2011年达到3.13：1。经济发展不协调、不平衡的问题日益突出。因此,如何处理好我国经济的协调发展问题就值得深入的研究。中国经济的发展不可能脱离世界经济的大环境,伴随着外部经济环境的日益开放,特别是中国在2001年加入WTO以后,进一步融入了国际经济体系。随着商品、资本和劳动力等要素国际流动的加强,中国经济与世界经济的相互依存度不断增加。同时,自2005年7月21日中国人民银行宣布对人民币汇率形成机制进行改革以来,截止到2012年12月2日人民币对美元汇率中间价为6.22,累计升值逾32%。因此,中国的经济是伴随着贸易自由化进程的不断推进和汇率水平的变动中发展和改变的。作为调节一国经济同外界联系的重要政策杠杆的汇率水平与贸易自由度是如何影响和改变国家间和区域间的总产出水平等宏观经济变量呢?本文尝试给出一些解答。首先,本文回顾了汇率变动和贸易自由化对经济发展影响的历史和现状；其次,从理论上分析二者对宏观经济的影响作用；最后,提出合理的政策搭配来促进我国经济的协调发展。本文的结构安排如下：第一章介绍了研究问题的背景及意义、研究目标、研究思路和研究方法等。第二章界定了相关概念和本文研究的范畴以及文献综述。第三章回顾了人民币汇率的变化特点,以及中国经济在贸易自由化进程中表现出来的不同的阶段性特征,并概括性地描述了我国经济发展不同时期的目标和存在的问题。第四章和第五章进入本文核心内容的分析。第四章首先建立了包含汇率水平和贸易自由度两个变量的一般均衡分析框架模型。其次,通过对模型的求解和数值分析提出四个命题,最后,在此基础上提出了相应的政策建议。第五章共分为五个小节,第一节主要是建立了只包含贸易自由度的两国三区域的分析框架模型。第二节有针对性的讨论了在贸易自由度的几种组合下,各经济参与区域会面对的问题。本章的第三节是在第一节的基础上引入汇率变量,建立包含汇率水平和贸易自由度的两国三区域模型,第四节讨论了在不同贸易成本下国家间和区域间经济发展的规律。第五节给出相应的政策启示。最后是本文的总结。本文在注重经验分析的同时,更偏好理论的研究。并通过对模型中相关参数提出的各种假设,得出了许多具有启发性的结论。
[Abstract]:In the 34 years since the reform and opening up in 1978, China's economic strength and comprehensive national strength have increased significantly. The share of China's total economic output in the world economy has increased from 4.4 percent in 2002 to about 10 percent in 2011, and the annual average contribution rate to world economic growth has exceeded 20 percent, becoming the second largest economy in the world after the United States. But at the same time, resource consumption and environmental pressure are enormous, the total energy consumption has accounted for 20.3 percent of the world total. The industrial structure was unreasonable, and the income gap between urban and rural residents continued to widen, reaching 3.13: 1 by 2011. The problem of uncoordinated and unbalanced economic development is becoming increasingly prominent. Therefore, how to deal with the coordinated development of China's economy is worthy of further study. China's economic development cannot be separated from the global economic environment, and with the increasing openness of the external economic environment, Especially after China joined WTO in 2001, it has further integrated into the international economic system. With the strengthening of international flows of commodities, capital and labor, the interdependence between China's economy and the world economy is increasing. Meanwhile, since the people's Bank of China announced the reform of the RMB exchange rate mechanism on July 21, 2005, as of December 2, 2012, the central exchange rate of RMB against the dollar was 6.22, with a cumulative appreciation of more than 32 yuan. therefore China's economy is developing and changing along with the process of trade liberalization and the change of exchange rate level. As an important policy lever to regulate a country's economic relations with the outside world, the exchange rate level and trade freedom are as follows How do macroeconomic variables such as total output levels between countries and regions change and change? This paper tries to give some answers. First, this paper reviews the history and current situation of the impact of exchange rate changes and trade liberalization on economic development; secondly, theoretically analyzes the impact of the two on the macroeconomic; finally, The structure of this paper is as follows: the first chapter introduces the background and significance of the research, research objectives, research ideas and research methods. The second chapter defines the related concepts, the category of this study and literature review. The third chapter reviews the characteristics of RMB exchange rate and the different stages of China's economy in the process of trade liberalization, and describes the objectives and problems of China's economic development in different periods. The fourth and fifth chapters enter the analysis of the core content of this paper. In chapter 4, a general equilibrium analysis model is established, which includes two variables: exchange rate level and trade degree of freedom. Secondly, four propositions are put forward by solving the model and numerical analysis, and finally, the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward. The fifth chapter is divided into five sections. In the first section, the analytical framework model of two countries and three regions including the degree of freedom of trade is established. In the second section, we discuss the problems that each region will face under the combination of trade freedom. The third section of this chapter introduces the exchange rate variable on the basis of the first section, and establishes a two-country three-region model which includes the level of exchange rate and the degree of freedom of trade. The fourth section discusses the law of inter-country and interregional economic development under different trade costs. The fifth section gives the corresponding policy enlightenment. Finally, it is the summary of this paper, which pays more attention to empirical analysis and preference theory. Many enlightening conclusions are obtained through various hypotheses about the relevant parameters in the model.
【学位授予单位】：东北师范大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F124;F832.6;F752

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