我国货币政策非对称性的实证研究和政策建议

发布时间：2018-06-11 14:28

本文选题：货币政策 + 非对称性　；参考：《复旦大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：货币政策作用的非对称性是指,通过扩张的货币政策刺激经济增长的效果不如通过紧缩的货币政策抑制经济过热的效果明显。也就是说货币政策在治理通货膨胀的效果要好于治理通货紧缩的效果。本文通过数据采集2000年第1季度-2011年第3季度的货币政策工具的季度数据、以及货币中间目标的季度数据、以及最终经济目标的季度数据,力求从货币政策的实施源头即中央银行的货币政策操作起点出发,通过实证检验我国货币政策在传导过程中是否的确存在非对称性特征。本文运用计量经济方法寻找这种非对称性特征存在于哪个阶段,原因是什么,最后对货币政策的非对称效应进行总结,并针对具体问题分析原因,找出合理、现实的解决方法并提出政策建议。本文建议通过缩短货币政策作用时间、加强利率的风险管理、推进汇率形成机制改革、改进存款准备金制度、完善再贴现政策、发展社会保障体系、改善银行信贷结构等各方面入手,利用好这种非对称性,提高我国货币政策的实施效果,以使货币政策更准确地执行决策者的意图。
[Abstract]:The asymmetric effect of monetary policy is that the effect of expanding monetary policy to stimulate economic growth is less obvious than that of restraining economic overheating through tight monetary policy. That is to say, the effect of monetary policy in controlling inflation is better than that of controlling deflation. This paper collects the quarterly data of monetary policy instruments from the first quarter of 2000 to the third quarter of 2011, as well as the quarterly data of the intermediate target of currency and the quarterly data of the final economic target. From the source of the implementation of monetary policy, that is, the starting point of the central bank's monetary policy operation, In this paper, we use econometric method to find out which stage this asymmetric characteristic exists and why. Finally, this paper summarizes the asymmetric effect of monetary policy, analyzes the reasons for the specific problems, finds out reasonable and realistic solutions and puts forward some policy suggestions. This paper suggests that the risk management of interest rate should be strengthened by shortening the time of monetary policy action. To promote the reform of the exchange rate formation mechanism, to improve the deposit reserve system, to improve the rediscount policy, to develop the social security system, and to improve the bank credit structure, and to make good use of this asymmetry to improve the implementation effect of China's monetary policy. In order to make monetary policy more accurate implementation of the intentions of policy makers.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F822.0

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