三次日元升值及其对日本经济影响的比较研究

发布时间：2018-06-12 01:08

本文选题：日元升值 + 广场协议　；参考：《河北大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：自从1973年布雷顿森林体系崩溃之后，日本开始实行浮动汇率制度，并持续了升值的趋势，，尤其是广场协议后日元相对于美元大幅度升值，由于不当的政策导向作用，最终带来了泡沫经济。日元持续升值使日本对外直接投资增加，加剧了日本产业空心化问题，并且使日本国内企业的利润大大缩减，严重影响了日本经济的正常秩序。特别是，人民币在2005年汇率制度改革之后一直呈现出升值之势，2010年人民币大幅度升值，严重影响我国经济正常运行，因此，研究日元三次大幅度升值及其对日本经济的影响，并吸取其经验和教训，对缓解人民币升值具有理论和现实意义。本文在研究日元升值的相关理论以及货币升值对本国经济影响理论的基础上，比较研究了广场协议后、泡沫经济崩溃后以及国际金融危机后三次日元升值及其对日本经济的影响。通过对三个时期日元升值的背景、原因进行深入研究和比较分析得出，三次日元升值的相同原因是来自美国强大的外压，但是不同时期日元升值的主要原因有所差别。广场协议后日元升值的主要原因是日本经济实力增强、贸易收支急剧增加；泡沫经济崩溃后日元升值的主要是由日本对美巨额贸易顺差以及急剧调低利率等综合作用造成的；国际金融危机后日元升值主要是投机性资金大量进入日本市场推高了日元，具体很明显的投机性。在三个时期不同的背景和原因下，日元升值对日本经济的影响也不是完全相同的，第一、二次日元升值都使日本贸易条件改善、对外直接投资增加，但是第三次日元升值却使日本贸易条件恶化、对外直接投资减少；对于股票和房地产价格的影响，第一次日元升值价格急剧上升，后两次升值却使价格下降。最后对三次日元升值背景、原因以及影响问题进行了比较总结，并得出了我国应对人民币升值的启示。
[Abstract]:After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1973, Japan began to implement a floating exchange rate system and continued the trend of appreciation, especially after the Plaza Accord, when the yen rose significantly against the dollar, due to improper policy guidance. Eventually, it brought about a bubble economy. The sustained appreciation of the Japanese yen increases Japanese foreign direct investment, exacerbates the hollowing of Japanese industry, and greatly reduces the profits of Japanese domestic enterprises, which seriously affects the normal order of the Japanese economy. In particular, after the exchange rate regime reform in 2005, the RMB has been showing a trend of appreciation. In 2010, the RMB appreciated significantly, which seriously affected the normal operation of our economy. Therefore, the study of the three large appreciation of the yen and its impact on the Japanese economy, It is of theoretical and practical significance to mitigate the appreciation of RMB. Based on the theory of yen appreciation and the influence of currency appreciation on domestic economy, this paper compares and studies the square agreement after studying the relevant theories of yen appreciation and the influence of currency appreciation on domestic economy. After the collapse of the bubble economy and the international financial crisis, the yen rose three times and its impact on the Japanese economy. Through in-depth study and comparative analysis of the background of yen appreciation in three periods, it is concluded that the same reason of yen appreciation comes from the strong external pressure of the United States, but the main reasons for yen appreciation in different periods are different. The main reasons for the yen appreciation after the Plaza Accord are the strengthening of Japanese economic strength and the sharp increase in trade balance, the appreciation of the yen after the collapse of the bubble economy is mainly caused by Japan's huge trade surplus with the United States and the sharp lowering of interest rates. After the international financial crisis, the appreciation of the yen is mainly due to the large amount of speculative funds entering the Japanese market and pushing up the yen, which is clearly speculative. Under different backgrounds and reasons in the three periods, the impact of the appreciation of the yen on Japan's economy is not exactly the same. First, the second appreciation of the yen both improved Japan's terms of trade and increased its foreign direct investment. However, the third appreciation of the yen has worsened Japan's terms of trade and reduced its outward direct investment. For the impact of the stock and real estate prices, the first yen appreciation has sharply increased, but the latter two have led to a drop in prices. Finally, the background, causes and effects of the three revaluation of the yen are compared and summarized, and the enlightenment of China's response to the appreciation of the RMB is obtained.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F823.13;F131.3

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