货币国际化进程中的金融风险与对策研究

发布时间：2018-06-12 18:29

本文选题：货币国际化 + 货币政策失效　；参考：《上海社会科学院》2012年博士论文

【摘要】：本文以货币国际化带来的资本项目逐步开放及离岸金融市场出现为背景，对货币国际化、金融风险、金融稳定进行界定和分析，从货币政策失效、经常收支失衡、汇率高估及货币投机四个方面分析了货币国际化与金融稳定的关系，并从资本项目开放策略的角度探讨了防范货币国际化风险的举措，最后落足到探讨人民币国际化进程中的风险防范。本文在结构上分为四个部分共七章。其中，第一章是文献综述，第二、三、四、五章分析货币国际化风险，第六章探讨风险防范举措，第七章为主要结论及政策建议。在序章之后，第一章对国内外关于货币国际化、金融风险、金融稳定的研究进行了综述，并在此基础上从货币国际化的角度对金融稳定的衡量进行分析与界定。第二章研究货币国际化与货币政策失效风险。首先，区分货币政策的有效性与独立性，并分析货币国际化背景下的货币政策独立性问题；其次，，通过分析制约货币政策有效性的因素，来探讨人民币国际化进程下维持货币政策独立性的策略。第三章研究货币国际化与经常收支失衡风险。首先，分析经常收支失衡与货币国际化的相互影响，并探讨特里芬难题及超主权货币；其次，通过模型来分析货币国际化对经常收支失衡的影响；再次，通过分析美元与美国收支赤字的关系，来研究人民币国际化进程中，经常项目下的结构性人民币输出策略。第四章研究货币国际化与汇率高估风险。首先，分析货币国际化与汇率变动间的关系，并探讨货币国际化背景下的汇率高估及汇率制度选择问题；其次，通过对比分析德国和日本的本币非国际化政策的影响，来探讨人民币国际化背景下的汇率高估问题及汇率制度的选择策略。第五章研究货币国际化与货币投机风险。首先，分析货币国际化与货币投机风险间的相互影响；其次，分析货币国际化背景下影响货币投机的主要因素，并通过分析20世纪90年代欧洲货币危机案例，来探讨人民币国际化进程中对热钱的监管策略。第六章探讨货币国际化背景下，资本项目开放对前述风险的影响，并通过分析亚洲金融危机案例，来探讨人民币国际化进程中的资本项目开放策略。第七章归纳和总结本文的主要结论及政策建议。本文的主要观点是，虽然，人民币国际化能增强其国际地位、降低汇率风险，但从中国目前的经济规模、金融环境及相关的制度建设来看，人民币国际化将会是个渐进过程。不合时宜地推进人民币国际化将会给我国经济及金融稳定带来挑战。人民币国际化初期，在资本项目没有完全开放及汇率波动弹性相对较小的背景下，货币政策的失效风险较小，经常收支仍能维持顺差，汇率高估及货币投机风险相对较小。不过，随着人民币国际化程度的不断提高，资本项目的逐步开放，这些潜在风险可能会逐渐显现，将对中国的金融稳定产生不利影响。因此，资本项目的有序开放、汇率制度弹性的增大、金融市场发展和深化、加强金融监管有效性及推动推动国际货币体系改革等策略，有助于人民币国际化风险的降低。
[Abstract]:Based on the gradual opening up of capital items and the emergence of offshore financial market, this paper defines and analyzes currency internationalization, financial risk and financial stability, and analyzes the relationship between monetary internationalization and financial stability from four aspects of monetary policy failure, balance of payments imbalance, exchange rate overvaluation and currency speculation. From the perspective of open policy, this paper probes into the measures to prevent currency internationalization risks, and finally falls to the risk prevention in the process of RMB internationalization.
This article is divided into four parts and seven chapters. The first chapter is literature review, second, third, four and five chapters to analyze the risk of currency internationalization, the sixth chapter discusses the risk prevention measures, the seventh chapter is the main conclusion and policy recommendations. After the preface chapter, the first chapter studies the domestic and foreign research on currency internationalization, financial risk and financial stability. On the basis of this, we analyze and define the measurement of financial stability from the perspective of currency internationalization. The second chapter studies the risk of currency internationalization and monetary policy failure. First, to distinguish the effectiveness and independence of monetary policy, and to analyze the independence of monetary policy under the background of currency internationalization; secondly, through analysis. The factors that restrict the effectiveness of monetary policy to explore the strategy of maintaining the independence of monetary policy under the internationalization of RMB. The third chapter studies the risk of currency internationalization and balance of payments imbalance. First, it analyzes the mutual influence of the balance of payments imbalance and the currency internationalization, and discusses the Terry Finn problem and the supersovereign currency; secondly, through the model To analyze the influence of currency internationalization on the balance of payments imbalance; thirdly, through the analysis of the relationship between the dollar and the United States budget deficit, this paper studies the structural RMB output strategy under the current account in the process of RMB internationalization. The fourth chapter studies the currency internationalization and the overvaluation of the exchange rate. The relationship between exchange rate overvaluation and exchange rate regime selection under the background of currency internationalization is discussed. Secondly, through comparison and analysis of the influence of the non internationalization policy of German and Japanese native currency, the problem of exchange rate overvaluation under the background of RMB internationalization and the choice strategy of exchange rate regime are discussed. The fifth chapter studies the currency internationalization and currency speculation. First, analyze the mutual influence between currency internationalization and currency speculative risk; secondly, analyze the main factors that affect currency speculation under the background of currency internationalization, and discuss the regulatory strategy of hot money in the process of RMB internationalization by analyzing the European monetary crisis case in 1990s. The sixth chapter discusses the currency internationalization back. In the seventh chapter, the seventh chapter summarizes and summarizes the main conclusions and policy suggestions of this article.
The main point of this paper is that, although the internationalization of RMB can enhance its international status and reduce the risk of exchange rate, the internationalization of RMB will be a gradual process in terms of the current economic scale, financial environment and related institutional construction of China. In the early period of RMB internationalization, the failure risk of monetary policy is smaller in the background of incomplete opening of capital items and relatively small elasticity of exchange rate fluctuations. The current balance of payments can still maintain surplus, exchange rate overvaluation and currency speculative risk are relatively small. However, with the continuous improvement of the degree of national currency, capital projects are gradually open. These potential risks may be gradually emerging and will have a negative impact on China's financial stability. Therefore, the orderly opening up of the capital account, the increase in the flexibility of the exchange rate system, the development and deepening of the financial market, the strengthening of the effectiveness of financial supervision and the promotion of the promotion of the reform of the international monetary system will help to reduce the risk of the internationalization of the RMB.
【学位授予单位】：上海社会科学院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6

【引证文献】