我国沿海地区金融发展水平评价研究

发布时间：2018-06-15 12:23

本文选题：金融发展 + 灰色关联分析　；参考：《中国海洋大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：金融是现代经济的核心,某地区金融发展水平的高低决定了该区域金融资源利用效率以及金融效益的大小和金融抗风险性的强弱。在“十一五”期间不断提高的金融发展水平，帮助我国顺利度过2008年以来的全球金融危机，极大提高了金融业在我国经济发展中的地位，而接下来的第十二个五年规划中金融业的发展至关重要。沿海地区作为中国经济最发达的区域，已经成为支撑我国经济发展和提升国家竟争力的主要动力区域。沿海地区的经济持续稳定增长事关我国国民经济发展的大局，而沿海各省市金融发展水平基本可以代表目前我国金融发展最高水平。本文的研究目的是对沿海地区金融发展现状梳理以及对沿海地区金融发展水平横向和纵向的评价及预测研究，得出沿海地区金融发展水平的清晰定位以及未来沿海地区金融发展趋势。本文首先对分析了国内外金融发展理论及金融发展实证分析的研究现状，阐述了对我国沿海地区金融发展水平评价研究的意义。其次，对金融发展理论进行了概述，介绍了金融发展理论的渊源，并分析了金融发展内涵，界定了本文所研究的金融发展水平涵义。并系统分析了国内外以及我国沿海地区三个层次金融发展的现状，，通过现状比较分析，指出现阶段沿海地区金融发展存在的问题。随后根据指标体系构建原则，运用解释结构模型梳理了沿海地区金融发展水平影响因素，结合沿海地区金融发展内涵及现状，构建出评价指标体系。再次，根据沿海地区金融发展水平综合评价指标体系的设计，分别选取灰色关联分析法、德尔菲评价法、熵值法和Topsis综合评价法分析法等方法建立联合测度模型，运用联合测度模型对沿海地区金融发展水平进行了评价研究，并运用Kendall一致性检验对不同方法研究结果进行了一致性检验，结合聚类分析的结果，最终得出沿海地区十二省市金融发展水平梯队划分，研究结果科学、客观、真实地反映了沿海地区金融发展规律，为沿海地区金融发展水平定位提供了科学的参考依据。最后，根据金融发展水平排名分别选取了各个梯队层次中比较有代表性的省市，运用SWOT分析方法对代表省市金融发展进行深度剖析研究，研究不同梯队省市面临的的发展机遇及优劣势，并通过对未来沿海地区金融发展进行预测分析及展望，判断了沿海地区金融发展趋势。最后，根据沿海地区过去和现在发展水平的评价以及未来发展的预测展望，客观合理的制定促进沿海地区金融发展的政策建议，有利于沿海地区各省市找出自身发展不足，争取在“十二五”期间有所突破。
[Abstract]:Finance is the core of modern economy. The level of financial development in a certain region determines the utilization efficiency of financial resources, the size of financial benefit and the strength of financial risk resistance. The continuous improvement of financial development level during the "11th Five-Year Plan" period helped our country smoothly through the global financial crisis since 2008, and greatly enhanced the position of the financial industry in the economic development of our country. The development of the financial sector is crucial in the next 12-year plan. As the most developed region in China, coastal areas have become the main driving force to support the economic development and enhance national competitiveness. The sustained and stable economic growth in coastal areas is related to the overall situation of national economic development in China, and the level of financial development in coastal provinces and cities can basically represent the highest level of financial development in China at present. The purpose of this paper is to sort out the present situation of financial development in coastal areas and to evaluate and predict the level of financial development in coastal areas both horizontally and vertically. The clear orientation of the financial development level in coastal areas and the future trend of financial development in coastal areas are obtained. Firstly, this paper analyzes the current situation of the financial development theory and empirical analysis at home and abroad, and expounds the significance of the evaluation of the financial development level in the coastal areas of China. Secondly, the financial development theory is summarized, the origin of financial development theory is introduced, the connotation of financial development is analyzed, and the meaning of financial development level is defined. The present situation of the financial development at home and abroad as well as in the coastal areas of our country is analyzed systematically. Through the comparative analysis of the present situation, the problems existing in the financial development of the coastal areas are pointed out. Then according to the construction principle of the index system, the paper combs the influencing factors of the financial development level in the coastal areas by using the explanatory structure model, and constructs the evaluation index system combining the connotation and the present situation of the financial development in the coastal areas. Thirdly, according to the design of the comprehensive evaluation index system of the financial development level in coastal areas, the joint measurement model is established by selecting the grey relational analysis method, Delphi evaluation method, entropy method and Topsis comprehensive evaluation method, etc. The joint measure model is used to evaluate the level of financial development in coastal areas, and Kendall consistency test is used to test the results of different methods, combined with the results of cluster analysis. Finally, it is concluded that the echelon division of financial development level of 12 provinces and cities in coastal areas, scientific, objective and true reflects the law of financial development in coastal areas, and provides a scientific reference for the positioning of financial development level in coastal areas. Finally, according to the ranking of financial development level, selected representative provinces and cities in each echelon level, using SWOT analysis method to analyze the financial development of representative provinces and cities in depth. The development opportunities, advantages and disadvantages faced by different echelon provinces and cities are studied, and the trend of financial development in coastal areas is judged by forecasting, analyzing and looking forward to the future financial development of coastal areas. Finally, according to the evaluation of the development level of coastal areas in the past and present and the forecast of future development, objectively and reasonably formulating policy recommendations to promote the financial development of coastal areas will help the provinces and cities of coastal areas to find out their own underdevelopment. Strive for a breakthrough during the 12th five-year Plan.
【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832;F224

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