人民币升值对中国汽车行业进出口的影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-16 02:12

本文选题：人民币升值 + 汽车行业　；参考：《上海外国语大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：汽车产业是国民经济经济的重要支柱产业，中国已成为“世界汽车生产大国”。2010年，我国汽车行业实现工业总产值43049亿元，同比增长36.2%。“十二五”期间，中国汽车年产量将达到2500万辆，工业总产值将达到4.5万亿元，汽车工业增加值占国内生产总值（GDP）的比例将达到3%。2010年，我国的汽车产品进出口额达到了1085.31亿美元，占我国进出口总额的3.65%，汽车行业是重要的贸易部门。汇率的变动会影响一国贸易，本文以中国的汽车行业进出口贸易为研究对象，，分别分析了可能影响汽车行业进口和出口的因素，包括人民币实际有效汇率变动对这两者的影响，并进一步从人民币汇率升值风险的角度，为汽车产品进出口企业应对汇率风险提供政策建议。本文主要做了以下研究工作： 1.梳理了现有汇率和一国整体进出口贸易的有关理论和研究成果，以及汇率变动对一国整体进出口贸易影响和对行业的影响有关文献，讨论了已有研究的优点和不足，不仅为本文的研究提供了理论工具以及可参考和借鉴的资料，而且发掘了进一步研究的空间。 2.阐述了中国汽车行业进出口现状，并对影响中国汽车行业进口和出口的可能因素进行了分析。 3.利用分析得到的变量和可得数据构建模型做定量分析，分别构建一个中国汽车行业进口的影响因素模型和一个中国汽车行业出口的影响因素模型，同时建立各自的扩展方程。在实证后分析了回归结果，得出到目前为止，人民币实际有效汇率的变动对于汽车行业进口和出口影响都不显著的结论。 4.借鉴已有的研究文献，试图从需求弹性不足、实际有效汇率和名义汇率的区分、收入等其他因素影响更为显著等方面解释以上结论。 5.基于我国目前面临的货币升值压力，提出汽车企业应该理性对待汇率升值、采取合理规避汇率风险措施、提高自身竞争力等建议。
[Abstract]:The automobile industry is an important pillar industry of the national economy, and China has become a "big country of automobile production in the world". In 2010, the total industrial output value of China's automobile industry reached 4.3049 trillion yuan, an increase of 36.2 percent over the same period last year. During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, China's annual automobile output will reach 25 million, the total industrial output value will reach 4.5 trillion yuan, and the added value of the automobile industry will account for the proportion of GDP to GDP in 3.2010. The import and export of automobile products in China has reached 108.531 billion US dollars, accounting for 3.65% of the total import and export of our country. Automobile industry is an important trade department. The change of exchange rate will affect the trade of a country. This paper takes the import and export trade of China's automobile industry as the research object, analyzes the factors that may affect the import and export of the automobile industry, including the influence of the change of the real effective exchange rate of RMB on these two factors. Furthermore, from the perspective of RMB exchange rate appreciation risk, policy suggestions are provided for automobile import and export enterprises to deal with exchange rate risk. The main work of this paper is as follows: 1. This paper reviews the relevant theories and research results on the exchange rate and a country's overall import and export trade, as well as the influence of exchange rate changes on a country's overall import and export trade and on the industry, and discusses the advantages and disadvantages of the existing studies. It not only provides the theoretical tools for the study of this paper, but also explores the space for further study. This paper expounds the current situation of import and export of China's automobile industry, and analyzes the possible factors affecting the import and export of China's automobile industry. Based on the analysis of variables and available data, a model of influencing factors of China's automobile industry import and a model of influencing factors of Chinese automobile industry's export are constructed, respectively, and their respective expansion equations are established. After the empirical analysis of the regression results, it is concluded that so far, the change of the real effective exchange rate of RMB has no significant impact on the import and export of automobile industry. 4. Drawing on the existing research literature, this paper tries to explain the above conclusions from the following aspects: insufficient elasticity of demand, distinction between real effective exchange rate and nominal exchange rate, and more significant influence of other factors such as income. Based on the pressure of currency appreciation in China at present, the paper puts forward some suggestions that automobile enterprises should treat exchange rate appreciation rationally, take reasonable measures to avoid exchange rate risk and improve their own competitiveness.
【学位授予单位】：上海外国语大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F752.6;F832.6;F426.471

【参考文献】