中国商业银行盈利能力测度及影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-06-16 23:52

本文选题：商业银行 + 盈利能力　；参考：《西南财经大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：面对逐渐全球化的中国金融市场和日益激烈的行业竞争,如何提高商业银行的盈利能力已成为各大行必须积极思考的问题。随着改革的不断深化,中国商业银行进入一个全新的整合发展时期,在这段时期内如果能够抓住机会,走出特色化发展路径,将会成为银行业的风向标。因此,不论是理论界还是实务界,已有大量文献对中国商业银行的盈利能力进行探讨。但现有文献大多以总资产收益率来衡量银行的盈利能力,研究资本充足情况、资产质量、资产负债结构等因素对银行盈利能力的影响,未能准确反映该银行的发展潜质及可能的风险,也未能从整个市场经济的角度来明晰银行的改革方向。本文基于中国商业银行股份制改革及利率市场化改革的背景,以20家商业银行2005年—2010年的数据为样本,对中国商业银行目前的盈利状况进行评估,并分析其影响因素。本文主要分为五大部分：第一章阐述了商业银行改革的现状和研究其盈利能力的现实意义。第二章从商业银行盈利能力评价研究、商业银行盈利能力影响因素研究两个方面,对现有的文献进行总结性地归纳与概括。第三章是理论分析部分,在进一步明确商业银行盈利能力概念和衡量方式的基础上,从宏观、中观、微观三个方面分析了影响其盈利能力的因素,并提出了本文的研究假设。第四章是实证分析部分,主要分为两部分,第一部分对文章的被解释变量进行重新测度,即选用10个财务指标进行因子分析,得出20家商业银行的综合盈利能力分数及排名；第二部分以国内生产总值增长率作为宏观经济环境的替代变量,以存款准备金率作为中观货币政策的替代变量,以股权集中度、国有股占比、外资股占比作为微观股权结构的替代变量,建立多元回归模型,分析宏观经济环境、中观货币政策、微观股权结构三个因素对商业银行综合盈利能力的影响。在进一步论证以前研究结果的基础上,本文的实证结果表明,GDP增长率越高、存款准备金率越高,商业银行的盈利能力越强；公司股权结构越分散,商业银行的盈利能力越强；国家持股比例越高,商业银行的盈利能力越弱；外资持股比例越高,商业银行的盈利能力就越强。第五章是对策建议和未来研究展望。本文可能的创新在于从初始投入、资产的使用效率以及过去的经营情况等多个方面入手,选取10个比较有代表意义的指标,得出银行的综合盈利能力分数,以此对商业银行的盈利能力进行客观、合理、全面的判断。另外,本文所选取的解释变量是基于中国商业银行改革背景下提出的,并非直接可以从报表中得到的财务数据,以期在解释财务信息的同时更能反映政策引导、股权改制的真实作用。
[Abstract]:In the face of the increasingly globalized financial market in China and the increasingly fierce industry competition, how to improve the profitability of commercial banks has become a problem that the banks must actively consider. With the deepening of the reform, Chinese commercial banks have entered a new period of integration and development. If they can seize the opportunity and walk out of the characteristic development path, they will become the vane of the banking industry. Therefore, both theoretical and practical circles, there have been a lot of literature on the profitability of Chinese commercial banks. However, most of the existing literatures measure the profitability of banks by the rate of return on total assets, and study the influence of capital adequacy, asset quality, structure of assets and liabilities on the profitability of banks. Failed to accurately reflect the bank's development potential and possible risks, nor to clarify the direction of the bank's reform from the perspective of the market economy as a whole. Based on the background of joint-stock system reform and interest rate marketization reform of China's commercial banks, this paper takes the data of 20 commercial banks from 2005 to 2010 as a sample to evaluate the current profit situation of Chinese commercial banks and analyze its influencing factors. This paper is divided into five parts: the first chapter describes the current situation of commercial bank reform and the practical significance of studying its profitability. The second chapter summarizes and generalizes the existing literature from two aspects: the evaluation of commercial banks' profitability and the study of the influencing factors of commercial banks' profitability. The third chapter is the theoretical analysis part. On the basis of further clarifying the concept and measurement of commercial banks' profitability, the author analyzes the factors that affect the profitability of commercial banks from three aspects: macro, meso and micro, and puts forward the research hypotheses of this paper. The fourth chapter is the empirical analysis, mainly divided into two parts, the first part of the article explained variables re-measure, that is, select 10 financial indicators for factor analysis, get 20 commercial banks' comprehensive profitability score and ranking; The second part takes the GDP growth rate as the substitute variable of the macroeconomic environment, takes the reserve requirement ratio as the substitute variable of the meso-monetary policy, and takes the degree of equity concentration as the proportion of state-owned shares. As a substitute variable of micro equity structure, the foreign capital share ratio is used to establish multiple regression model, to analyze the influence of macroeconomic environment, meso monetary policy and micro equity structure on the comprehensive profitability of commercial banks. On the basis of the previous research results, the empirical results show that the higher the GDP growth rate, the higher the reserve ratio, the stronger the profitability of commercial banks, the more dispersed the corporate equity structure, the stronger the profitability of commercial banks. The higher the national shareholding ratio, the weaker the profitability of commercial banks; the higher the proportion of foreign ownership, the stronger the profitability of commercial banks. The fifth chapter is the countermeasure suggestion and the future research prospect. The possible innovation of this paper is to select 10 representative indicators from the aspects of initial input, efficiency of asset use and past operating conditions, and get the score of comprehensive profitability of banks. In this way, the profitability of commercial banks is judged objectively, reasonably and comprehensively. In addition, the explanatory variables selected in this paper are based on the background of the reform of China's commercial banks, and are not directly available from the financial statements, in order to reflect the policy guidance while explaining the financial information. The real function of equity reform.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.33;F224

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