金砖四国汇率制度的选择：比较研究

发布时间：2018-06-18 07:04

本文选题：金砖四国 + 汇率制度　；参考：《复旦大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：汇率制度对一国经济、贸易的发展起着重要的作用,合意的汇率制度能够有效控制通货膨胀、促进经济增长,相反则会加大金融危机爆发的可能性,甚至导致经济衰退。因此,汇率制度作为国际经济学研究的一个重点问题,一国选择何种汇率制度、汇率制度的决定因素一直是学术界研究和争论的热点。在20世纪90年代新兴市场国家金融危机爆发后,加上汇率制度划分标准的多样性,学术界开始重新研究新兴市场国家汇率制度选择的问题。同属新兴市场国家的金砖四国由于经济持续的高速增长以及在2008年金融危机中的出色表现受到国际经济学界的关注,而汇率制度作为促进国际贸易和资本流动、调节国内外经济平衡的重要因素必然首当其冲作为学术界研究的主要对象。金砖四国汇率选择的差异性何在?其内在的决定因素究竟又是什么?此外,作为金砖四国之一的中国来讲,近年来一直面临着“双顺差”以及“汇率升值”的困扰,中国的汇率制度又将朝着什么方向进行改革?能否从金砖四国汇率制度选择的比较研究中找到有价值的参考和借鉴?解决这些疑问即是本文的目的之所在,研究表明：第一,金砖四国汇率制度的选择受国际环境以及国内政策的影响,并且更加灵活的汇率制度是金砖四国汇率制度的发展趋势。汇率制度作为国际货币体系的重要组成部分,将受到各种国际货币体系类型的影响。与此同时,国内经济改革政策对汇率制度选择也有重要影响,激进的经济改革政策要求价格快速大幅度放开,而渐近的经济改革政策下,则是缓慢放开价格,开放资本账户。第二,从金砖四国各自的经济结构特征来看,经济规模较小、经济发展水平较低、产业结构高度较低、贸易集中度较高的国家倾向于选择固定汇率制度。当国内经济基础薄弱、经济发展形势恶化时,需要采取谨慎的汇率制度转换,逐步放开汇率、价格体系,钉住主要贸易国国币的汇率制度对其国内经济起到了很好的保护作用。而随着国内经济结构、贸易条件的改善,汇率制度的灵活性需要加强,否则对经济发展产生抑制作用。第三,从计量分析结果来看,金砖国家汇率制度的选择符合汇率制度选择理论。除了短期影响因素中的通货膨胀率以及国际资本流动指标不显著外,其它中、长期变量都符合前文的理论推导,且显著性较高。具体而言,经济规模、经济开放度与浮动汇率制度呈现出显著地正相关性,外汇储备水平、金融发展程度与汇率制度则呈现出显著地负相关性。据此,金砖四国汇率制度的选择充分说明了汇率制度不存在优劣之分,只有适合与否之别。一国要结合实际经济情况选择合意的汇率制度,也变相否定了“中间汇率制度消失论”。不同的汇率制度都有其各自的利弊特点,而合意的汇率制度能够化短为长,有利于经济的顺利转型；相反,如果不结合国内经济特征、政策、转换时机等因素,则会产生巨大的转换成本,更甚者将导致金融危机。
[Abstract]:The exchange rate system plays an important role in the development of a country ' s economy and trade . The exchange rate system can effectively control inflation and promote economic growth . In the opposite direction , it will increase the probability of the financial crisis and even lead to economic recession . Therefore , the exchange rate system is the focus of international economics research .

China ' s exchange rate system has been faced with " double surplus " and " exchange rate appreciation " in recent years because of the sustained high - speed growth of BRICS and its outstanding performance in the 2008 financial crisis . What is the difference between China ' s exchange rate system and exchange rate appreciation ?

First , the choice of the exchange rate system of BRICS is influenced by the international environment and domestic policy , and the more flexible exchange rate system is the developing trend of the exchange rate system of BRICS . As an important part of the international monetary system , the exchange rate system will be affected by the types of international monetary system . At the same time , the domestic economic reform policy has important influence on the choice of exchange rate system . At the same time , the radical economic reform policy requires the price to be released quickly and greatly , and under the policy of the gradual economic reform , it is the slow release price and open the capital account .

Second , from the economic structural characteristics of the four countries of BRICS , the economy is small , the level of economic development is low , the industrial structure is low , and the countries with higher trade concentration tend to choose the fixed exchange rate system . When the domestic economic foundation is weak and the economic development situation deteriorates , the exchange rate system of the national currency of the main trade country needs to be changed gradually . With the improvement of the domestic economic structure and the trade conditions , the flexibility of the exchange rate system needs to be strengthened , otherwise , the economic development is inhibited .

Third , from the results of measurement analysis , the choice of the national exchange rate system of BRICS accords with the theory of exchange rate system choice . In addition to the short - term impact factors , the inflation rate and the international capital flow index are not significant . In the other , long - term variables are consistent with the former theories and the significance is higher . Specifically , economic scale , economic openness and floating exchange rate system are positively correlated , foreign exchange reserve level , financial development degree and exchange rate regime show a significant negative correlation .

According to this , the choice of the exchange rate system of the four countries of the BRICS indicates that the exchange rate system does not have the advantages and disadvantages , only if it is suitable or not . One country chooses the desirable exchange rate system according to the actual economic situation , and also rejects the " intermediate exchange rate system disappearance theory " . The different exchange rate system has its own advantages and disadvantages , and the desirable exchange rate system can be shortened to be long , which is beneficial to the smooth transition of the economy ;
On the contrary , if the factors such as domestic economic characteristics , policies , transition opportunities and the like are not combined , huge conversion costs can be generated , and even worse will lead to the financial crisis .
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F831.52

【相似文献】