银行信贷配给、财政政策与私人投资

发布时间：2018-06-20 07:26

本文选题：信贷配给 + 财政政策　；参考：《山东大学》2012年博士论文

【摘要】：1998年以来,伴随着我国财政实力的迅猛增长,我国政府越来越注重使用财政政策工具以促进国民经济持续、快速和健康的发展。我们应该清楚认识到：财政政策对总体经济发展往往仅能发挥间接和辅助功能,成功的财政政策应该,也必须能够更加有效地撬动私人投资,通过私人投资稳健和持续的增长来达成四大宏观政策目标。因此,首当其冲的问题就是要厘清财政政策与私人投资之间的关联机制。只有在解决此问题之后,才有可能制定出最优财政政策以最大限度地“挤入”私人投资。目前主流学界在研究财政政策与私人投资关联机制时大多采用IS-LM理论,但其理论解释力及政策指导意义却远不能令人满意。一方面,主流理论就财政政策对私人投资到底是否具有挤入效应,具有多大的挤入效应这个问题上仍没有达成一致见解；另一方面,IS-LM理论忽略了银行信贷市场上普遍存在且影响深刻的信贷配给因素,这个过强的假设与现实情况相距甚远,很有可能导致有偏结论的出现。部分开创性文献考虑到信贷配给因素在分析财政政策对私人投资影响时的重要性。这些研究在建模时对金融市场建立了两个基本假设,但这两个基本假设只是比较贴近发达国家金融市场,却并不符合发展中国家,尤其是不符合现阶段中国金融市场和银行信贷市场的根本特征。直接套用此类模型来分析和指导我国的具体问题将存在较大风险。本文针对现有模型中金融市场的基本假设进行修正,以贴近发展中国家的具体情况,从而建立起发展中国家模型来研究财政政策、私人投资和银行业信贷配给三者之间的关联性。根据发展中国家模型进行推演,论文得出两个基本命题。命题揭示出了财政政策对私人投资的影响会随着银行业信贷配给程度的变化会呈现出典型的非线性特征,即财政支出对私人投资的挤入效应与银行信贷配给程度呈现正向相关关系,并且这种关联机制还会受到其他融资渠道发展水平的制约。为使发展中国家模型的结论进一步精确化,本文建立包含家庭、企业、银行和政府的四部门一般均衡模型来深化相关问题分析。四部门一般均衡模型得出的结论进一步夯实了之前发展中国家模型得出的两个命题。论文的实证部分针对全国大陆30个省、直辖市和自治区(不含西藏)的面板数据,采用面板门限协整模型(PTCM)进行估计以检验两个基本命题。针对全国整体数据,以及针对东、中、西部三大区域的PTCM估计(包括敏感度分析)结果都较好的表现出财政支出对国内私人投资的挤入效应会随着银行信贷配给程度的增加而提升的态势,从而验证了命题1；三大区域其他融资渠道的发展程度由低到高分别为中部、西部和东部,而财政政策对私人投资挤入效应的大小由高到低也保持这一顺序(包括敏感度分析),从而验证了命题2。论文的理论和实证分析阐释了我国银行信贷配给、财政政策和国内私人投资三者之间的关联机制,而这种关联机制的存在与我国金融业当前发展水平的相对落后密不可分。本文从短期和长期两个层次入手,就如何提升财政政策对私人投资挤入效应而提出了一整套较为完备的政策建议,其中短期政策建议主要涉及财政政策出台时机的选择以及财政政策与其他宏观调控手段合理搭配等问题。这些问题的深入探讨都将有助于取得更好的财政政策效果。本文共分7章,第1-4章是理论部分,包括导论、相关文献综述、理论分析和研究对象阐述,第5-6章是实证分析部分,第7章为结论、政策建议与研究展望。本文可能的创新之处主要有以下两点： 1.建立发展中国家模型。 (1)调整现有相关文献对金融市场的基本假设以符合发展中国家基本特征,在此基础上重新演绎并诠释了发展中国家财政支出、私人投资与银行信贷配给程度之间的关联机制,并得出两个基本命题：命题1：发展中国家财政政策对私人投资的整体政策效应会表现出某种明显的非线性特征,即财政支出对私人投资的挤入效应与银行信贷配给程度之间呈现正向相关关系,而银行业信贷配给程度的变化则是导致这种非线性特征发生的根本原因。此命题与发达国家模型主要结论相反；命题2：财政支出对私人投资的挤入效应与银行信贷配给程度之间的相关关系会受到其他融资渠道发展水平的影响,即在大致相同的银行信贷配给条件下,如果某些发展中国家或地区其他融资渠道发展水平存在较大差异,则这些发展中国家或地区出台财政政策对私人投资的挤入效应与这些国家或地区间其他融资渠道发展水平呈现负向相关； (2)构建包含家庭、企业、银行和政府四部门的一般均衡模型。本文借鉴并发展了Freixas and Rochet(2008)提出的包括家庭、企业和银行的三部门模型,构建了包含家庭、企业、银行和政府四部门的一般均衡模型,进一步细化和拓展了发展中国家模型所得出的结论； 2.对现有的面板门限协整模型进行改进。论文在借鉴欧阳志刚(2008)模型的基础上又进行了部分调整： (1)使用Kao面板协整检验来代替Choi and Saikkonen(2005)提出的面板协整检验。 (2)采用更为有效的自助法(bootstrap)方法代替Monte Carlo模拟方法对门限阀值进行估计。
[Abstract]:Since 1998 , with the rapid growth of our country ' s financial strength , our government has paid more and more attention to the use of fiscal policy tools to promote the sustained , rapid and healthy development of national economy . We should realize that fiscal policy can only exert indirect and auxiliary functions on overall economic development , and the successful fiscal policy should , and must be able to make more effective use of private investment to achieve the four macro - policy objectives through the sound and sustained growth of private investment .

In the current mainstream academic circle , the IS - LM theory is mostly adopted in the study of the mechanism of the association between fiscal policy and private investment , but its theoretical explanation and policy directive significance are far from satisfactory . On the one hand , the mainstream theory has not reached a consensus on whether the financial policy has an extruding effect on private investment , and has many crowding effects .
On the other hand , IS - LM theory ignores the widespread and influential factors of credit rationing in the bank credit market , which is very likely to lead to the emergence of biased conclusions . Some open literature takes into account the importance of credit rationing factors in analyzing the influence of fiscal policy on private investment .

Based on the developing country model , the paper draws two basic propositions . The proposition reveals that the influence of fiscal policy on private investment can be restricted by the development level of other financing channels . In order to make the conclusion of developing country model more accurate , this paper establishes four general equilibrium models including family , enterprise , bank and government to deepen the analysis of related problems .

The empirical part of this paper is aimed at the panel data of 30 provinces , municipalities directly under the Central Government and autonomous regions ( excluding Tibet ) in the whole country . The panel threshold co - integration model ( PTCM ) is used to estimate two basic propositions .
The degree of development of other financing channels in the three major regions is from low to high , respectively , in the central , western and east , while fiscal policy keeps this order ( including sensitivity analysis ) on the size of the crowding effect of private investment , thereby verifying proposition 2 .

Based on the short - term and long - term two levels , this paper puts forward a complete set of policy suggestions on how to improve the fiscal policy ' s choice of fiscal policy and the rational collocation of fiscal policy and other macro - control measures .

Chapter 7 , Chapter 1 - 4 is a theoretical part , including introduction , related literature review , theoretical analysis and research object . Chapter 5 - 6 is an empirical analysis part . Chapter 7 is the conclusion , policy suggestion and research prospect .

Possible innovations of this article include the following two points :

1 . Building a developing country model .

( 1 ) To adjust the basic assumptions of financial markets in accordance with the basic characteristics of developing countries , and reinterpret and interpret the mechanism between financial expenditure , private investment and bank credit rationing in developing countries , and draw two basic propositions :

Proposition 1 : The overall policy effect of developing country ' s fiscal policy on private investment shows some obvious non - linear characteristic , that is , the effect of fiscal expenditure on private investment is positively correlated with the degree of bank credit rationing , and the change of credit rationing degree is the root cause of this non - linear characteristic . This proposition is contrary to the main conclusion of developed country model .

Proposition 2 : The relationship between the squeezing effect of fiscal expenditure on private investment and the level of bank credit rationing will be influenced by the development level of other financing channels , that is , if there is a large difference in the development level of other financing channels in some developing countries or regions under the same bank credit rationing conditions , the crowding effect of fiscal policy on private investment in some developing countries or regions is negatively related to the development level of other financing channels in those countries or regions ;

( 2 ) To build a general equilibrium model which includes four sectors of family , enterprise , bank and government . This paper draws on and develops the three - sector model of Freixas and Rochet ( 2008 ) , which includes family , enterprise and bank , and constructs a general equilibrium model including family , enterprise , bank and government , further thinning and expanding the conclusion drawn by developing country model ;

2 . The existing panel threshold co - integration model is improved . Based on the model of Yuanyang Zhigang ( 2008 ) , the thesis also makes some adjustments :

( 1 ) The panel co - integration test proposed by Choi and Saikkonen ( 2005 ) was used instead of Choi and Saikkonen ( 2005 ) .

( 2 ) The threshold threshold is estimated using a more effective bootstrap method instead of the Monte Carlo simulation method .
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.4;F812.0;F224

【参考文献】