中国外汇储备适度规模问题研究

发布时间：2018-06-21 15:00

本文选题：外汇储备 + 适度规模　；参考：《河北大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：外汇储备是国际货币体系的核心，也是国际金融领域的重要组成部分。它关系到各国调节国际收支和稳定汇率的能力，一直受到国际金融机构和各国政府的高度关注。充足的外汇储备表明一国拥有足够的干预外汇市场和维持汇价的能力；然而一国外汇储备规模过大，往往会减弱经济政策的效果，，对经济发展产生一定的阻碍作用。因此适度规模的外汇储备对维持一个国家的经济稳定至关重要。中国自1994年多次外汇体制改革后，外汇储备增长迅速，截至2010年年末外汇储备规模达到28473亿美元，位居世界前列。中国如何保持适度外汇储备规模，外汇储备适度规模如何确定，如何安全的以及有效地管理如此庞大的外汇储备已成为外汇储备总量管理的重要内容。本文是以外汇储备适度规模为研究对象，从外汇储备规模的基本理论入手，研究当前中国外汇储备适度规模的确定，并为如何加强外汇储备管理献计献策。论文首先确立了外汇储备适度规模的含义，继而介绍了中国外汇储备的基本情况，并对其快速增长的原因、及对宏观经济的影响进行了分析。随后以外汇储备的需求为出发点，通过对直接影响因素的量化处理，构建出界定外汇储备适度规模的方程，对1994-2008年中国的外汇储备进行实证分析，分析结果表明：近几年来中国的外汇储备规模偏大。最后，指出了目前在外汇管理过程中存在的问题，并建议在当前国际金融危机的影响尚未结束的情况下，尽管外汇储备的规模偏大，仍不宜使用过激的措施调整外汇储备规模，而应从合理安排超额部分、深化外汇管理体制改革、推进人民币汇率形成机制改革、提高外汇储备的变现能力和强化外部监督等几个方面，强化外汇储备的规模管理。
[Abstract]:Foreign exchange reserves are the core of the international monetary system and an important part of the international financial field. It is related to the ability of countries to adjust the balance of payments and stabilize the exchange rate, and has been highly concerned by international financial institutions and governments. Sufficient foreign exchange reserves show that a country has enough ability to intervene in foreign exchange market and maintain exchange rate. However, if a country's foreign exchange reserve is too large, it will weaken the effect of economic policy and hinder the economic development to a certain extent. Therefore, a moderate size of foreign exchange reserves is essential to maintain a country's economic stability. Since the reform of the foreign exchange system in 1994, China's foreign exchange reserves have grown rapidly. By the end of 2010, the scale of foreign exchange reserves had reached 2.8473 trillion US dollars, ranking among the top in the world. How to maintain the appropriate scale of foreign exchange reserves, how to determine the appropriate scale of foreign exchange reserves, and how to manage such huge foreign exchange reserves safely and effectively have become an important part of the total foreign exchange reserve management. This paper takes the appropriate scale of foreign exchange reserve as the research object, starting with the basic theory of the scale of foreign exchange reserve, studies the determination of the appropriate scale of China's foreign exchange reserve at present, and makes suggestions on how to strengthen the management of foreign exchange reserve. This paper first establishes the meaning of the moderate scale of foreign exchange reserves, then introduces the basic situation of China's foreign exchange reserves, and analyzes the reasons for its rapid growth and its impact on the macro economy. Then, taking the demand of foreign exchange reserve as the starting point, through the quantitative treatment of the direct influencing factors, the paper constructs the equation to define the appropriate scale of foreign exchange reserve, and makes an empirical analysis of China's foreign exchange reserve from 1994 to 2008. The results show that the scale of China's foreign exchange reserves is on the large side in recent years. Finally, the paper points out the existing problems in the process of foreign exchange management, and suggests that, while the impact of the current international financial crisis is not over, it is not appropriate to use drastic measures to adjust the size of foreign exchange reserves, although the scale of foreign exchange reserves is too large. In order to strengthen the scale management of foreign exchange reserve, we should arrange the excess part reasonably, deepen the reform of foreign exchange management system, push forward the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, improve the ability of realizing foreign exchange reserve and strengthen external supervision.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6

【参考文献】