地方政府投资行为对货币政策有效性的影响研究

发布时间：2018-06-26 04:25

本文选题：地方政府投资 + 货币政策　；参考：《湘潭大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：货币政策作为中央政府宏观经济调控的重要措施，要达到其既定的目标不仅要有高效的传导机制，也需要各微观主体——地方政府、银行、企业、消费者的积极配合。但在现实中，由于参与货币政策传导的微观主体为了追求自身利益最大化，所以其决策产生的结果可能与货币政策既定的目标不一致，导致货币政策效率降低。本文以地方政府作为研究对象，分析其为了追求本地区经济利益最大化而进行的投资行为对货币政策有效性的影响，对提高货币政策有效性具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。本文首先梳理了有关地方政府职能定位、地方政府投资行为与经济增长的关系、地方政府投资与货币政策有效性关系的国内外研究文献；其次根据地方政府行为理论以及我国的现实情况分析了地方政府产生投资冲动的原因以及投资的影响因素等；再次通过货币政策传导的利率、信贷渠道分析了地方政府投资行为对货币政策的响应程度，研究了地方政府投资如何影响总产出和物价，最终对货币政策有效性产生影响；最后利用我国的经济数据建立两个6变量VAR模型实证检验了地方政府投资行为对货币政策有效性的影响。通过研究，本文得出以下结论：货币政策的变动会引起地方政府投资行为的变化，不同货币政策工具的影响力由大到小依次是货币供应量、信贷规模、利率，但相对于扩张性货币政策，，地方政府投资对紧缩性货币政策的敏感性不强；数据显示我国地方政府投资常年保持高速增长的趋势，它的增长直接促进地区经济增长，并带动地方企业投资和居民消费的增长，引起地方总产出增长，但同时导致通货膨胀，最终降低货币政策有效性。本文在最后对规范地方政府投资行为，进而更有效地传导货币政策提出了政策建议，包括优化财政分权和分税制、完善绩效考核制度、优化财政支出结构、加强对地方政府的监督、提升地方政府的货币政策传导效率。本文的创新是将地方政府假设成追求本地区经济利益最大化的经济人，利用数据实证我国地方政府投资对货币政策有效性影响的现实状况。
[Abstract]:Monetary policy, as an important measure of the central government's macroeconomic control, needs not only efficient transmission mechanism, but also the active cooperation of local government, banks, enterprises and consumers in order to achieve its established goal. However, in reality, the micro-subjects involved in the transmission of monetary policy in order to maximize their own interests, so the results of its decision-making may not be consistent with the established objectives of monetary policy, resulting in lower efficiency of monetary policy. This article takes the local government as the research object, analyzes its investment behavior to pursue the local economic benefit maximization to the monetary policy validity influence, has the important theory significance and the practical significance to enhance the monetary policy validity. Firstly, this paper combs the domestic and international literature on the function orientation of local government, the relationship between local government investment behavior and economic growth, and the relationship between local government investment and monetary policy effectiveness. Secondly, according to the behavior theory of local government and the reality of our country, this paper analyzes the reason of local government's investment impulse and the influencing factors of investment, and the interest rate transmitted through monetary policy. The credit channel analyzes the response degree of the local government investment behavior to the monetary policy, studies how the local government investment affects the total output and the price, and finally has the influence on the monetary policy validity; Finally, two 6-variable VAR models based on Chinese economic data are established to test the effect of local government investment behavior on the effectiveness of monetary policy. Through the research, this paper draws the following conclusion: the change of monetary policy will cause the change of local government investment behavior, the influence of different monetary policy tools is money supply, credit scale, interest rate in turn. However, compared with the expansionary monetary policy, the local government investment is not sensitive to the contractionary monetary policy, and the data show that the local government investment in our country keeps increasing at a high speed all the year round, and its growth directly promotes the regional economic growth. It also leads to the growth of local enterprise investment and resident consumption, which leads to the increase of local total output, but at the same time leads to inflation, which ultimately reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy. In the end, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to standardize the investment behavior of local government and conduct monetary policy more effectively, including optimizing fiscal decentralization and tax distribution, perfecting the performance appraisal system, optimizing the structure of fiscal expenditure. Strengthen the supervision of local governments and improve the transmission efficiency of local governments' monetary policy. The innovation of this paper is to assume the local government as the economic man who pursues the maximization of the local economic benefits, and to use the data to demonstrate the actual situation of the influence of the local government investment on the effectiveness of monetary policy.
【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F822.0

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