汇率结构突变的诱因及给人民币加速升值的警示——来自人民币和日元兑换美元汇率的证据

发布时间：2018-06-26 19:04

本文选题：人民币兑换美元的汇率 + 日元兑换美元的汇率　；参考：《中山大学学报(社会科学版)》2010年06期

【摘要】：试图检验人民币兑换美元的汇率在1981年1月2日至2008年6月17日间和日元兑换美元的汇率在1971年1月4日至2008年6月17日间的结构突变,发现中日汇率的结构突变的时间恰好是出现重大汇率事件的时候。经实证发现,货币加速贬值或升值均会导致汇率结构突变。1994年1月1日人民币官方汇率与市场汇率并轨,导致人民币兑美元汇率贬值性的结构突变;1985年9月22日西方五国达成的"广场协议"致使日元兑美元汇率升值性的结构突变。中日汇率结构突变的深层次原因以及日元人民币加速升值为我们提供了可以借鉴的教训:追赶型的经济体制只适应经济转轨期;汇率应渐进地升值,不能使货币政策成为汇率政策的附庸;政策实施不能太突然和过于激烈;金融自由化要慎行等。
[Abstract]:Attempts to test the structural changes in the exchange rate between the renminbi and the United States dollar between 2 January 1981 and 17 June 2008 and between the yen and the United States dollar between 4 January 1971 and 17 June 2008, The discovery of a structural change in the exchange rate between China and Japan coincides with a major exchange rate event. It is found by empirical evidence that accelerated devaluation or appreciation of the currency will lead to a sudden change in the exchange rate structure. On January 1, 1994, the official RMB exchange rate and the market exchange rate were in line with each other. The structural change that led to the depreciation of the RMB against the dollar and the "Plaza Agreement" reached by the five Western countries on September 22, 1985 led to a structural change in the appreciation of the yen against the US dollar. The deep causes of the sudden change in the exchange rate structure of China and Japan and the accelerated appreciation of the yen and RMB provide us with lessons to be learned: the catch-up economic system only adapts to the period of economic transition, and the exchange rate should gradually appreciate. Monetary policy should not become an appendage of exchange rate policy; policy implementation should not be too sudden and too fierce; financial liberalization should be carried out carefully.
【作者单位】：中山大学岭南学院经济系;
【分类号】：F832.6

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