人民币国际化的汇率风险研究

发布时间：2018-07-08 12:17

本文选题：人民币 + 国际化　；参考：《吉林大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来，随着经济金融全球化的不断深入，和亚洲区域内各国对人民币的各种货币职能的强烈需求，人民币国际化的雏形已开始逐渐显现。但相比于世界上通行的国际货币，人民币的国际化程度还明显偏低：资本项目领域仍然没有实现自由兑换，人民币利率仍然存在上下限，人民币汇率仍未实现自由浮动——人民币自由化尚未实现。在人民币国际化的过程中，汇率和利率管制必将逐步放开，这将对国内经济造成一定冲击。本文正是基于这一矛盾，努力探寻汇率在国内经济市场中的传导机制，以求在汇率管制的不断放开过程中，人民币国际化能够平稳推进。在研究方法上，本文采用了理论与实证相结合的方法，以模型来简化宏观问题，以数据来多角度描述这一问题，最终，得出了以下结论：人民币在现实经济中虽然有区域化和国际化的发展趋势，但实际达到的国际化水平还很低；在人民币国际化的推进过程当中，汇率风险是最大的瓶颈，尽管汇率的稳定保证了汇率错配风险的降低，但由于汇率的市场化水平还不高，诸多资本管制的存在，他国对人民币投资、利用人民币结算贸易的成本仍然较高；另外，，在汇率逐步放开管制的过程中，势必冲击国内商品和进口商品等的价格，从而对整个市场产生影响，而汇率的波动对企业商品价格的冲击是最大的，也就是说，当人民币放开管制，逐步向市场水平靠近，人民币会不断升值，对企业的出口和原材料进口产生不利的影响，从而推高国内整体的物价水平。全文分为五章：首先提出问题并作文献综述；其次，本文构建了人民币国际化指数模型来定量分析人民币国际化的现状；再次，本文说明了继续推进人民币国际化的有利条件和挑战；然后对汇率对物价的冲击进行定量分析；最后进行总结并提出有针对性的政策建议。本文的不足之处在于，由于本人学术能力有限，收集的信息有限，对于人民币国际化推进过程中的汇率风险的对策与建议尚需进一步研究探讨。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the deepening of economic and financial globalization, and the strong demand for various currency functions of RMB in the Asian region, the embryonic form of RMB internationalization has gradually appeared. However, compared with the international currency in the world, the degree of internationalization of the RMB is still on the low side: there is still no free convertibility in the capital account area, and there are still upper and lower levels of RMB interest rates. The RMB exchange rate has not yet been freely floated-the liberalization of the RMB has not yet been realized. In the process of RMB internationalization, the exchange rate and interest rate control will be gradually liberalized, which will have a certain impact on the domestic economy. Based on this contradiction, this paper tries to explore the transmission mechanism of the exchange rate in the domestic economic market, so that RMB internationalization can advance smoothly in the process of continuous liberalization of exchange rate control. In the research method, this paper adopts the method of combining theory with demonstration, simplifies the macroscopic problem with the model, describes the problem with the data from many angles, and finally, The following conclusions are drawn: although the RMB has the development trend of regionalization and internationalization in the real economy, the actual level of internationalization reached is still very low. In the process of promoting the internationalization of RMB, the exchange rate risk is the biggest bottleneck. Although the stability of the exchange rate ensures the reduction of the risk of exchange rate mismatch, due to the low level of marketization of the exchange rate and the existence of a lot of capital controls, the cost of other countries investing in RMB and using RMB to settle their trade is still relatively high; in addition, In the process of gradually liberalizing the exchange rate, it is bound to impact the prices of domestic commodities and imported commodities, thus having an impact on the whole market. The fluctuation of exchange rates has the greatest impact on enterprise commodity prices, that is to say, When the RMB is liberalized and gradually closer to the market level, the RMB will continue to appreciate, which will have a negative impact on the export of enterprises and the import of raw materials, thus pushing up the domestic price level as a whole. The full text is divided into five chapters: first, put forward the questions and write a summary; secondly, this paper constructs the RMB internationalization index model to quantitatively analyze the current situation of RMB internationalization; thirdly, This paper explains the favorable conditions and challenges of continuing to promote RMB internationalization; then carries out quantitative analysis of the impact of exchange rate on prices; finally summarizes and puts forward targeted policy recommendations. The deficiency of this paper is that, due to the limited academic ability and limited information collected, the countermeasures and suggestions for the exchange rate risk in the process of RMB internationalization still need to be further studied and discussed.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F224

【引证文献】