开放经济条件下高额外汇储备对我国货币政策的影响研究

发布时间：2018-07-12 17:35

本文选题：外汇储备 + 货币政策　；参考：《安徽农业大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：自2001加入世贸组织后，我国贸易顺差急剧扩大，大量外资不断流入，国际收支不平衡矛盾日益突出。我国外汇储备于2006年10月首次突破1万亿美元，到2009年6月突破2万亿美元。近年来，我国外汇储备连续突破高位。截至2011年底，我国外汇储备已达到3.18万亿美元。外汇储备虽然在清偿国际收支逆差、干预外汇市场以及维持一国货币汇率稳定、抵抗金融风险等方面发挥着重要作用，但外汇储备水平过高，储备规模急剧扩大，将会对本国经济产生一系列的负面影响。在开放经济条件下，高额的外汇储备不仅将产生巨大的机会成本，同时容易引起国际“热钱”加速流入、国内通货膨胀压力提升等问题，这些都将对本国的经济政策，尤其是货币政策产生不可忽视的影响。本文在开放经济下外汇储备与货币政策相互影响关系的理论分析基础上，利用2006-2011年共61个月的相关经济变量的数据进行具体分析，以求探究我国外汇储备、冲销操作、货币供给等货币政策因素之间的关系。分析表明：外汇储备对货币供给有着显著的正相关关系，外汇储备在促进经济增长的同时，导致国内货币供给被动增加，削弱了货币政策的调控力度与效果；而以央行票据为主的公开市场业务通过收缩银根，能有效冲销流通中货币供给的增加，，从而在短期内缓解国内流动性过剩的问题。据此，本文建议外汇储备的有效管理，应伴随着金融改革的深入、公开市场操作的完善、汇率制度改革的推进和人民币国际化步伐的加快等配套举措，才能更好应对持续增长的外汇储备对我国货币政策带来的影响，提高货币政策的自主性与独立性。
[Abstract]:Since China joined the WTO in 2001, China's trade surplus has expanded rapidly, a large amount of foreign capital has been flowing in, and the contradiction of international balance of payments has become increasingly prominent. China's foreign exchange reserves exceeded $1 trillion for the first time in October 2006 and $2 trillion in June 2009. In recent years, China's foreign exchange reserves continue to break through high levels. By the end of 2011, China's foreign exchange reserves have reached $3.18 trillion. Although foreign exchange reserves play an important role in liquidating the balance of payments deficit, intervening in the foreign exchange market, maintaining the stability of a country's currency exchange rate, and resisting financial risks, the level of foreign exchange reserves is too high and the scale of reserves expands rapidly. Will have a series of negative effects on the national economy. Under the conditions of open economy, high foreign exchange reserves will not only produce huge opportunity costs, but also will easily cause problems such as accelerated international "hot money" inflow, rising domestic inflationary pressure, and so on. All of these will have an impact on domestic economic policies. In particular, monetary policy has an impact that cannot be ignored. Based on the theoretical analysis of the relationship between foreign exchange reserves and monetary policy under open economy, this paper makes a concrete analysis of the relevant economic variables data of 61 months from 2006 to 2011, in order to explore the foreign exchange reserves and sterilize operations in China. The relationship between monetary policy factors such as money supply. The analysis shows that the foreign exchange reserve has a significant positive correlation with the money supply. While promoting the economic growth, the foreign exchange reserve leads to the passive increase of the domestic money supply, which weakens the intensity and effect of the monetary policy. The open market business, which is dominated by central bank bills, can effectively sterilize the increase of money supply in circulation by shrinking the monetary resources, thus alleviating the problem of excess domestic liquidity in the short term. Accordingly, this paper suggests that the effective management of foreign exchange reserves should be accompanied by the deepening of financial reform, the improvement of open market operation, the promotion of exchange rate system reform and the acceleration of the pace of RMB internationalization. Only then can we better deal with the influence of the increasing foreign exchange reserves on our monetary policy and improve the autonomy and independence of monetary policy.
【学位授予单位】：安徽农业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F822.0;F832.6;F224

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