我国金融政策对房地产市场的调控效应分析
发布时间：2018-07-17 01:55
【摘要】：自从房地产市场化改革以来,特别是近十年来的高速发展,房地产行业已逐渐形成我国的支柱产业,房地产开发投资总额占GDP比重在1986年仅为1%,而到2010年已高达12.13%,其产业链长,关联效应强,能直接或间接带动多个上下游产业的发展从而对居民消费、扩大内需、增加就业和促进国民经济发展产生一系列拉动作用；在房地产行业快速发展的同时,作为最为敏感的房价呈现了快速上涨的态势,这也同时带来了资源配置失衡、资产泡沫积聚、金融系统风险提升甚至社会稳定等一系列问题,为保证房地产市场的稳定与健康发展,国家必需对房地产行业进行一系列的宏观调控,其中金融政策的调控首当其冲,国家近些年以来多次运用了利率、存款准备金率、信贷规模控制、首付比例控制等多项手段进行了房地产调控,也取得了一定的成效,但由于房地场行业本身存在较大的复杂性,如城市化进程高速发展下的供求失衡、土地财政现象突出、对于银行贷款的高度依赖,地区间发展的极不平衡等因素,造成了调控本身难度较大,同时宏观经济中的流动性过剩、人民币的升值预期、货币政策本身存在时滞性都造成金融政策调控效应的减弱,通过实证分析发现在各项金融工具运用中对房地产价格影响较大的为信贷规模,利率手段长期内影响房地产价格,但短期影响偏弱,汇率波动也对房地产价格有着正向的影响。通过对比发达国家地区调控的经验和教训来看,过于宽松和过于严厉的调控将对房地产市场带来的极为严重的影响,如美国的次贷危机和日本的房地产泡沫破灭。为了提高我国金融政策调控房地产市场的有效性,提出了几点建议,第一应该将调控的时点和力度与房地产发展周期相结合,第二是应结合地区差异采取不同的金融调控政策,第三应该采取更直接的金融调控政策。第四应该审慎使用货币政策,优化货币流通环境,第五应该加快房地产金融体系化建设,拓宽融资渠道,进行金融创新,第六是优化与完善住房公积金制度,形成多层次房地产金融体系,控制金融风险。
[Abstract]:Since the reform of real estate market, especially the rapid development in the past ten years, the real estate industry has gradually formed the pillar industry of our country. The proportion of total investment in real estate development to GDP is only 1% in 1986, but by 2010 it has reached 12.13%, and its industry chain is long. Strong correlation effect, can directly or indirectly drive the development of multiple upstream and downstream industries, thus producing a series of pulling effects on residents' consumption, expanding domestic demand, increasing employment and promoting the development of the national economy; while the real estate industry is developing rapidly, As the most sensitive housing price, housing prices have shown a rapid rise, which has also brought about a series of problems, such as imbalance in resource allocation, accumulation of asset bubbles, rising risks in the financial system and even social stability. In order to ensure the stability and healthy development of the real estate market, the state must carry out a series of macro-control over the real estate industry, among which the regulation of financial policy is the first. In recent years, the country has used interest rates and reserve requirements for many times. Many means, such as credit scale control and downpayment proportion control, have been used to control the real estate, and some achievements have been made. However, due to the complexity of the real estate industry itself, such as the imbalance between supply and demand in the rapid development of urbanization, The prominent phenomenon of land finance, the high dependence on bank loans, the extremely unbalanced development among regions, and other factors have resulted in the difficulty of adjustment and control itself. At the same time, there is excess liquidity in the macro economy and the expectation of appreciation of the RMB. The delay of monetary policy itself causes the weakening of financial policy regulation effect. Through empirical analysis, it is found that the scale of credit has a great impact on the real estate price in the use of various financial instruments, and the interest rate means affects the real estate price in the long run. But the short-term influence is weak, the exchange rate fluctuation also has the positive influence to the real estate price. By comparing the experiences and lessons of regional regulation in developed countries, too loose and too strict regulation will bring very serious impact on the real estate market, such as the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the bursting of the real estate bubble in Japan. In order to improve the effectiveness of China's financial policy to regulate the real estate market, several suggestions are put forward. Firstly, the timing and intensity of regulation and control should be combined with the real estate development cycle, and secondly, different financial control policies should be adopted in the light of regional differences. Third, more direct financial regulation and control policies should be adopted. Fourth, we should use monetary policy prudently to optimize the monetary circulation environment. Fifth, we should speed up the construction of the real estate financial system, widen the channels of financing, and carry out financial innovation. Sixth, we should optimize and improve the housing accumulation fund system. Form a multi-level real estate financial system to control financial risks.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F299.23;F832
[Abstract]:Since the reform of real estate market, especially the rapid development in the past ten years, the real estate industry has gradually formed the pillar industry of our country. The proportion of total investment in real estate development to GDP is only 1% in 1986, but by 2010 it has reached 12.13%, and its industry chain is long. Strong correlation effect, can directly or indirectly drive the development of multiple upstream and downstream industries, thus producing a series of pulling effects on residents' consumption, expanding domestic demand, increasing employment and promoting the development of the national economy; while the real estate industry is developing rapidly, As the most sensitive housing price, housing prices have shown a rapid rise, which has also brought about a series of problems, such as imbalance in resource allocation, accumulation of asset bubbles, rising risks in the financial system and even social stability. In order to ensure the stability and healthy development of the real estate market, the state must carry out a series of macro-control over the real estate industry, among which the regulation of financial policy is the first. In recent years, the country has used interest rates and reserve requirements for many times. Many means, such as credit scale control and downpayment proportion control, have been used to control the real estate, and some achievements have been made. However, due to the complexity of the real estate industry itself, such as the imbalance between supply and demand in the rapid development of urbanization, The prominent phenomenon of land finance, the high dependence on bank loans, the extremely unbalanced development among regions, and other factors have resulted in the difficulty of adjustment and control itself. At the same time, there is excess liquidity in the macro economy and the expectation of appreciation of the RMB. The delay of monetary policy itself causes the weakening of financial policy regulation effect. Through empirical analysis, it is found that the scale of credit has a great impact on the real estate price in the use of various financial instruments, and the interest rate means affects the real estate price in the long run. But the short-term influence is weak, the exchange rate fluctuation also has the positive influence to the real estate price. By comparing the experiences and lessons of regional regulation in developed countries, too loose and too strict regulation will bring very serious impact on the real estate market, such as the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the bursting of the real estate bubble in Japan. In order to improve the effectiveness of China's financial policy to regulate the real estate market, several suggestions are put forward. Firstly, the timing and intensity of regulation and control should be combined with the real estate development cycle, and secondly, different financial control policies should be adopted in the light of regional differences. Third, more direct financial regulation and control policies should be adopted. Fourth, we should use monetary policy prudently to optimize the monetary circulation environment. Fifth, we should speed up the construction of the real estate financial system, widen the channels of financing, and carry out financial innovation. Sixth, we should optimize and improve the housing accumulation fund system. Form a multi-level real estate financial system to control financial risks.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F299.23;F832
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