欧洲主权债务危机对我国对欧出口的影响

发布时间：2018-07-18 08:33

【摘要】：欧盟是我国对外出口的第一大贸易伙伴,欧洲主权债务危机的爆发影响到欧洲的经济发展和消费信心,使我国对欧出口面临严重挑战,研究欧洲主权债务危机对我国出口的影响具有理论与实践意义。本文从欧洲主权债务危机的爆发根源入手,了解引发欧洲主权债务危机的原因以及其传导机制,分析欧洲主权债务危机给欧洲经济发展、全球经济复苏带来的影响,再从总需求的角度详细分析欧洲主权债务危机给我国对欧出口造成的影响,最后通过总模型以及面板数据分国家模型实证分析定量的得出欧洲主权债务危机对我国对欧出口贸易的具体影响,其中包括我国对整个欧盟地区的出口的影响以及分别对危机国家、非危机国家出口的影响。研究结果显示,欧洲主权债务危机的爆发确实使得我国对欧出口大幅下降,特别是对机电产品、金属制造品等价格弹性大、可替代性高的产品的影响最大。实证结果显示了主权债务危机所导致的欧洲总需求的减少是使得我国对欧出口贸易额下降的最主要原因,而汇率这一变量的实证结果并不稳定,因国家的差异其影响程度也略有差异,但总体上欧元对人民币的贬值也将给我国对欧出口带来负面影响,控制变量政府债务和单位劳动成本均对我国对欧出口具有一定影响力。最后,本文建议我国应尽快转变经济增长方式、扩大国内需求、降低经济增长对出口的依赖,同时也要以欧洲主权债务危机为戒,预防政府债务危机。具体为：第一、调整经济结构,降低出口在我国经济中所占的比例,加快实现出口导向型经济向内需拉动型经济的转变。第二、积极开拓多元化的海外市场,优化出口市场结构。第三、注重结算货币和结算方式的灵活运用,防止汇率波动带来的损失。第四、加强管理我国的财政收支以及各级政府债务,合理控制政府债务规模,防范潜在的财政风险。第五、采取有效措施合理解决人口老龄化问题,制定符合国情的社会福利制度,保持合适的政府机构。
[Abstract]:The European Union (EU) is the largest trading partner of China's foreign exports. The outbreak of the European sovereign debt crisis has affected the economic development and consumer confidence of Europe and made China's exports to Europe face serious challenges. It is of theoretical and practical significance to study the impact of European sovereign debt crisis on China's exports. Starting with the origin of the European sovereign debt crisis, this paper analyzes the causes of the European sovereign debt crisis and its transmission mechanism, and analyzes the impact of the European sovereign debt crisis on European economic development and global economic recovery. From the perspective of aggregate demand, the impact of the European sovereign debt crisis on China's exports to Europe is analyzed in detail. Finally, through the general model and panel data sub-country model empirical analysis of quantitative analysis of the European sovereign debt crisis on China's export trade to Europe specific impact, It includes the impact of our country on the export of the whole EU region and on the exports of crisis countries and non-crisis countries respectively. The results show that the outbreak of the European sovereign debt crisis has made China's exports to Europe drop sharply, especially to the products with high price elasticity and high substitutability, such as mechanical and electrical products, metal manufactures and so on. The empirical results show that the reduction of total European demand caused by the sovereign debt crisis is the main reason for the decline of China's export trade to Europe, while the empirical results of the exchange rate variable are not stable. However, the depreciation of the euro to the RMB will also have a negative impact on China's exports to Europe. Controlling variable government debt and unit labor cost have certain influence on China's exports to Europe. Finally, this paper suggests that our country should change the mode of economic growth as soon as possible, expand domestic demand and reduce the dependence of economic growth on exports. At the same time, we should take the European sovereign debt crisis as a warning to prevent the government debt crisis. First, we should adjust the economic structure, reduce the proportion of export in our economy, and accelerate the transition from export-oriented economy to domestic demand driven economy. Second, actively develop diversified overseas markets and optimize the export market structure. Third, pay attention to the flexible use of settlement currency and settlement methods to prevent losses caused by exchange rate fluctuations. Fourth, we should strengthen the management of our country's fiscal revenue and expenditure and government debts at all levels, reasonably control the scale of government debt, and guard against potential financial risks. Fifth, we should take effective measures to solve the problem of population aging rationally, formulate a social welfare system suitable for our national conditions, and maintain appropriate government institutions.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F831.59;F752.62;F224

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