消费信贷对经济增长的促进作用研究

发布时间：2018-07-21 13:56

【摘要】：2008年10月,北欧小国冰岛的主权债务问题就开始逐渐显现,在之后的一两年时间里,主权债务危机全面暴露,并最终演变成欧洲主权债务危机。欧洲债务危机对各国经济造成了不小的冲击,尤其使我国以出口拉动经济增长的发展模式遭遇考验。我国拥有13亿人口的广泛市场,若要在全球经济增速下滑的情况下保持较高的经济增长,必需依靠内需,通过扩大消费刺激经济。由于消费信贷在刺激消费需求、促进经济稳定增长、改善银行的资产结构方面有十分重要的作用,我国金融机构应该大力发展消费信贷业务。但遗憾的是,在欧美等发达国家发展已经相当成熟的消费信贷在我国还只有短短十几年的发展时间,其发展特征、方法都还在摸索阶段。鉴于此,本文运用实证分析的方法对我国消费信贷的发展历程、特征、对中国经济总量的贡献度等方面进行了研究。文章首次利用中国31个省市的大量数据,从学术角度全面分析了中国消费信贷的数量特征,用平衡面板数据分析了消费信贷对我国经济的拉动作用,并从五个方面研究了中国消费信贷的可持续发展策略。本论文分为五章。第一章为导论,阐述本论文研究的背景以及意义,评述有关这一问题的国内外研究成果,阐明研究方法和本文创新之处。第二章是消费信贷概述,本章依次介绍了消费信贷的产生和发展、消费信贷的特点及分类和消费信贷在我国的发展历史。第三章介绍了我国消费信贷的发展现状,并依次对中国消费市场和中国消费信贷市场做出分析,提出了我国现有消费信贷发展存在的问题。第四章即本文的实证分析部分,本章利用面板数据,通过混合回归、固定效应分析法以及随机效应分析法来分析中国消费信贷与宏观经济GDP之间的计量关系。文章选取消费信贷余额、GDP,城镇居民可支配收入、房地产投资和净出口五个个变量构成计量模型。为了消除数据的非平稳性,对变量取了对数。最终的结果表明我国消费信贷每增长一个百分点,国内生产总值增长0.06个百分点,这个结果符合前文介绍的消费信贷与宏观经济关系的相关理论。第五章,本文探讨了我国发展消费信贷的对策,提出大力发展住房贷款、逐步加大汽车消费信贷的市场份额、将推进农村消费信贷作为增长亮点和完善个人征信系统等对策与建议,此外,本文从贷前预防、贷中管理、贷后监督三个方面提出了我国消费信贷市场风险防范的措施。
[Abstract]:In October 2008, the sovereign debt problem of Iceland, a small Nordic country, began to emerge, and in the following one or two years, the sovereign debt crisis was fully exposed and eventually developed into a European sovereign debt crisis. The European debt crisis has had a great impact on the economies of all countries, especially the export-led economic growth model of our country has been tested. China has a broad market of 1.3 billion people. If we want to maintain high economic growth while global economic growth is declining, we must rely on domestic demand to stimulate the economy by expanding consumption. Since consumer credit plays a very important role in stimulating consumer demand, promoting stable economic growth and improving the asset structure of banks, our financial institutions should vigorously develop consumer credit business. However, it is a pity that the developed countries such as Europe and America have developed quite mature consumer credit in China for only ten years, and its development characteristics and methods are still in the stage of exploration. In view of this, this paper uses the method of empirical analysis to study the development process, characteristics and contribution of China's total economic volume of consumer credit in China. This paper, for the first time, makes use of a large number of data from 31 provinces and cities in China to comprehensively analyze the quantitative characteristics of consumer credit in China from an academic point of view, and analyzes the pulling effect of consumer credit on China's economy by using balance panel data. The sustainable development strategy of consumer credit in China is studied from five aspects. This paper is divided into five chapters. The first chapter is an introduction, which describes the background and significance of this paper, reviews the domestic and foreign research results on this issue, and clarifies the research methods and innovations of this paper. The second chapter is an overview of consumer credit. This chapter introduces the emergence and development of consumer credit, the characteristics and classification of consumer credit, and the history of consumer credit in China. The third chapter introduces the current situation of the development of consumer credit in China, and analyzes the consumer market and consumer credit market in turn, and puts forward the existing problems in the development of consumer credit in China. The fourth chapter is the empirical analysis part of this paper, this chapter uses panel data, through mixed regression, fixed effect analysis and stochastic effect analysis to analyze the econometric relationship between China's consumer credit and macroeconomic GDP. This paper selects five variables of consumption credit balance GDP, disposable income of urban residents, real estate investment and net export to constitute the econometric model. In order to eliminate the nonstationarity of the data, the logarithm of the variables is taken. The final results show that for every one percentage point increase of consumer credit, GDP increases by 0.06 percentage points. This result is in line with the theory of the relationship between consumer credit and macro-economy. In the fifth chapter, this paper discusses the countermeasures of developing consumer credit in our country, and puts forward to develop housing loan vigorously and increase the market share of automobile consumption credit step by step. The countermeasures and suggestions of promoting rural consumer credit as a bright spot of growth and perfecting personal credit information system are put forward in this paper. In addition, this paper puts forward some measures to prevent the risk of consumer credit market in China from three aspects: pre-loan prevention, loan management and post-loan supervision.
【学位授予单位】：山东大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.479

【参考文献】