关于人民币汇率与我国对外直接投资关系的实证研究
发布时间：2018-07-24 12:39
【摘要】：在经济全球化的背景下,国与国之间的对外直接投资具有越来越重要的意义。伴随着我国经济的增长和“走出去”步伐的加快,我国的对外直接投资发展迅速。人民币汇率面临不断升值的压力,其对我国企业的对外直接投资产生一定程度的影响。本文通过对已有国内外文献进行回顾,发现发展中国家汇率与对外直接投资的关系并没有一个统一的结论。接下来介绍了我国汇率制度改革的过程与我国对外直接投资的发展历程,并详细分析了我国现阶段对外直接投资的特点。然后以我国1985-2010年人民币实际有效汇率、人均国内生产总值、对外直接投资流量为研究变量,运用实证分析模型,分析了人民币汇率与汇率制度改革如何在长短期影响我国总体对外直接投资。随后利用2002-2010年的时间序列数据分析汇率对我国各行业对外直接投资的影响。研究发现,汇率在长短期都正向影响我国总体对外直接投资,即人民币升值会促进我国对外直接投资的增加。汇率制度改革对我国对外直接投资的影响程度不同,1994年的汇率制度改革之前,人民币反向影响对外直接投资,1994年汇率制度改革之后,人民币正向影响对外直接投资,并且2005年的汇率制度改革对我国对外直接投资有更大的促进作用。大部分行业的对外直接投资与汇率呈现显著正相关关系。本文最后根据我国汇率与对外直接投资的特点,结合实证分析结果,对于目前人民币变动情况下我国如何更好的发展对外直接投资,提出了些政策建议。
[Abstract]:Under the background of economic globalization, foreign direct investment (FDI) between countries is becoming more and more important. With the economic growth and the acceleration of "going out", China's foreign direct investment (OFDI) is developing rapidly. The RMB exchange rate is under constant pressure of appreciation, which has a certain degree of influence on the foreign direct investment of Chinese enterprises. By reviewing the domestic and foreign literature, this paper finds that there is no uniform conclusion on the relationship between exchange rate and foreign direct investment in developing countries. Then it introduces the process of exchange rate system reform and the development course of China's foreign direct investment, and analyzes the characteristics of China's current foreign direct investment in detail. Then taking the real effective exchange rate of RMB from 1985 to 2010, per capita GDP and FDI flow as the research variables, the empirical analysis model is used. This paper analyzes how the RMB exchange rate and exchange rate regime reform affects China's overall foreign direct investment in the long and short term. Then we use the time series data from 2002 to 2010 to analyze the impact of exchange rate on foreign direct investment (FDI). It is found that the exchange rate has a positive effect on China's overall foreign direct investment in the long and short term, that is, the appreciation of RMB will promote the increase of China's foreign direct investment. The impact of exchange rate regime reform on China's foreign direct investment is different. Before the exchange rate system reform in 1994, the RMB negatively affected foreign direct investment, and after the 1994 exchange rate system reform, the renminbi positively affected foreign direct investment. Moreover, the exchange rate system reform in 2005 will promote China's foreign direct investment (OFDI). There is a significant positive correlation between OFDI and exchange rate in most industries. Finally, according to the characteristics of China's exchange rate and foreign direct investment, combined with the results of empirical analysis, this paper puts forward some policy recommendations on how to better develop foreign direct investment in China under the current situation of RMB change.
【学位授予单位】：青岛大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6
本文编号：2141412
[Abstract]:Under the background of economic globalization, foreign direct investment (FDI) between countries is becoming more and more important. With the economic growth and the acceleration of "going out", China's foreign direct investment (OFDI) is developing rapidly. The RMB exchange rate is under constant pressure of appreciation, which has a certain degree of influence on the foreign direct investment of Chinese enterprises. By reviewing the domestic and foreign literature, this paper finds that there is no uniform conclusion on the relationship between exchange rate and foreign direct investment in developing countries. Then it introduces the process of exchange rate system reform and the development course of China's foreign direct investment, and analyzes the characteristics of China's current foreign direct investment in detail. Then taking the real effective exchange rate of RMB from 1985 to 2010, per capita GDP and FDI flow as the research variables, the empirical analysis model is used. This paper analyzes how the RMB exchange rate and exchange rate regime reform affects China's overall foreign direct investment in the long and short term. Then we use the time series data from 2002 to 2010 to analyze the impact of exchange rate on foreign direct investment (FDI). It is found that the exchange rate has a positive effect on China's overall foreign direct investment in the long and short term, that is, the appreciation of RMB will promote the increase of China's foreign direct investment. The impact of exchange rate regime reform on China's foreign direct investment is different. Before the exchange rate system reform in 1994, the RMB negatively affected foreign direct investment, and after the 1994 exchange rate system reform, the renminbi positively affected foreign direct investment. Moreover, the exchange rate system reform in 2005 will promote China's foreign direct investment (OFDI). There is a significant positive correlation between OFDI and exchange rate in most industries. Finally, according to the characteristics of China's exchange rate and foreign direct investment, combined with the results of empirical analysis, this paper puts forward some policy recommendations on how to better develop foreign direct investment in China under the current situation of RMB change.
【学位授予单位】：青岛大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6
【引证文献】
相关硕士学位论文 前1条
1 涂春丽;人民币汇率对中国对外直接投资影响分析[D];重庆师范大学;2013年
，本文编号：2141412
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