人民币汇率变化对广东省进出口影响实证研究

发布时间：2018-07-26 06:59

【摘要】：自2005年7月21日中国人民银行宣布实行汇率体制改革以来,人民币开始步入大幅升值的轨道,截止到2012年8月底已累计升值23.33%。2012年4月16日央行再次宣布提高银行间即期外汇市场美元兑人民币交易价浮动幅度,即由最初的0.3%到0.5%,再到现在的1%,人民币汇率更具弹性。广东省作为我国最大的对外贸易主体,是典型的外向型经济,其进出口总额连续多年来一直稳居我国首位,占全国进出口总额的四分之一以上。汇率,作为调节对外贸易的关键变量,对广东省进出口的影响范围更大、程度更深。因此本文以广东省为研究对象,深入研究汇率变化对其进出口的影响。文章首先对汇率变化影响进出口的相关理论进行了梳理和总结。随后在对人民币汇率变化情况和广东省进出口贸易现状进行描述性分析的基础上,分别从短期和长期两个方面实证研究了人民币汇率变化对广东省进出口的影响。短期分析主要借鉴Cushmax的分析模型,将双边汇率水平变化和第三国汇率风险纳入研究范畴,综合分析汇率变化对广东省进出口的短期影响。研究表明,双边汇率水平变化和第三国汇率风险均对广东省进出口产生显著影响,但第三国汇率风险的影响方向是不确定的。长期分析基于传统的供求分析理论,使用弹性分析法,对人民币实际有效汇率与广东省进出口的长期关系进行了协整检验。结论显示,人民币升值将促进广东省进口的增长,但对广东省出口产生显著的负向影响。最后针对实证分析结论,分别从我国政府和进出口企业两个角度提出改善广东省进出口贸易的相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the people's Bank of China announced the reform of the exchange rate system in July 21, 2005, the RMB has begun to step into the track of substantial appreciation. By the end of August 2012, the central bank has revalued the exchange rate of the exchange market in the inter bank exchange market to increase the exchange rate of the RMB exchange rate, from the initial 0.3% to 0.5%, from the initial 0.3% to 0.5%. At present 1%, the RMB exchange rate is more flexible. As the largest foreign trade subject in China, Guangdong is the typical export-oriented economy. Its import and export volume has been the first place in China for many years, accounting for more than 1/4 of the total import and export of the country. The exchange rate, as the key variable in the regulation of foreign trade, is the shadow of the import and export of Guangdong province. This article takes Guangdong Province as the research object, and deeply studies the impact of exchange rate changes on its import and export.
First, the paper combs and summarizes the related theories of exchange rate change affecting import and export. Then, on the basis of a descriptive analysis of the change of RMB exchange rate and the status of Guangdong import and export trade, the effect of the change of RMB exchange rate on the import and export of Guangdong province is empirically studied in two aspects of short-term and long-term. Based on the analysis model of Cushmax, the change of bilateral exchange rate and the risk of the third country exchange rate are included in the study category, and the short-term influence of exchange rate changes on the import and export of Guangdong province is synthetically analyzed. The study shows that the change of bilateral exchange rate and the exchange rate risk of the third country have a significant influence on the import and export of Guangdong Province, but the exchange rate wind of the third country is the same. The long-term analysis based on the traditional supply and demand analysis theory and the elastic analysis method, the long-term relationship between the actual effective exchange rate of RMB and the import and export of Guangdong province is cointegration test. The conclusion shows that the appreciation of RMB will promote the increase of the import of Guangdong Province, but there is a significant negative shadow on the export of Guangdong province. Finally, according to the conclusion of empirical analysis, we put forward relevant policies and suggestions to improve Guangdong's import and export trade from two perspectives, namely, our government and import and export enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.6

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