我国流动性过剩与货币政策调控
发布时间：2018-07-29 10:00
【摘要】：无论是采用通货膨胀目标制的国家，还是传统的以货币供应量为中介目标的国家，，都需要对宏观经济的流动性状况进行有效的监控。因为流动性状况向货币当局传达了丰富的有关货币供求及未来价格水平变化的相关信息，并且对宏观经济、金融的稳定具有重要的影响。 改革开放以来，我国三个层次的货币供应量均出现了较高幅度的增长。然而与传统货币数量论描述的货币、价格与产出间关系不同的是，我国货币的高幅增长并没有全部转化为物价和产出水平的上涨，这被国际经济学界称为“中国之谜”。特别是1997年亚洲金融危机之后，尽管我国货币供应量仍然保持了较快的增长速度，但是居民消费价格却出现了持续多年的低增长甚至负增长的现象。货币供应量长期的高幅增长不可避免地导致了我国货币资金流动性过剩的局面。进入2003年以后，我国国民经济处于新的一轮经济周期上升阶段，在经济持续快速增长和人民币升值等因素的影响下，由于全球宽松的货币政策和低利率环境导致的过剩流动性以各种形式持续大量地涌入中国市场，使我国面临流动性泛滥的巨大压力。直至2007年下半年次贷危机的全面爆发，流动性过剩的局面才得以逆转。2008年下半年开始，为了应对国际金融危机，货币调控由“从紧”转为“适度宽松”。到2009、2010年，由于宽松货币政策的继续实施，以及受到美国等国家“量化宽松”政策的影响，宏观流动性再次过剩。流动性过剩已经成为当前我国宏观经济持续、健康发展所面临的主要挑战之一，它对我国货币政策的制定和实施以及经济金融的稳定构成了较大的威胁。对流动性过剩问题进行系统、深入的研究，不仅在理论上有助于深化对货币供应量与物价、产出之间关系的认识，而且在宏观经济政策实践上有利于化解流动性过剩风险，促进我国经济持续、健康发展。 流动性过剩问题引起了社会各界的极大关注，然而既有研究中关于流动性过剩的成因、判断标准及其对宏观经济的影响等问题远未达成一致性意见。流动性管理是中央银行的重要职责之一。鉴于宏观流动性在流动性体系中的基础地位，以及受到研究内容、研究水平的限制，本文主要研究宏观层面的流动性过剩及其对我国货币政策有效性的影响。本文首先从欧洲中央银行（ECB）经济学家Thorsten PolleitDieter Gerdesmeier（2005）提出的流动性过剩的概念及其测度方法出发，对我国1978-2010年宏观流动性状况进行了测度。在此基础上，对我国流动性过剩的成因展开了理论与实证研究。接下来，文章重点研究了流动性过剩对我国货币政策有效性的影响，并对我国应对流动性过剩的货币政策工具的效果进行了评估。在总结德国、日本、墨西哥等国治理流动性过剩的经验与教训的基础上，提出了我国未来应对流动性过剩的政策建议。 文章主要研究结论如下：一、我国宏观流动性状况具有基本平衡（1978-1994年）、流动性相对短缺（1995-1998年）、流动性相对过剩（2001-2006年）、流动性急剧短缺、逐步回复及再次过剩等（2007-2010年）四个明显的阶段。二、近年来国外资产（主要是由贸易顺差导致的外汇储备）的迅速增加是导致我国M1、M2两个层面宏观流动性过剩的主要因素。三、流动性过剩主要通过银行信贷的扩张推动产出与物价的上升。因此，流动性过剩在实现产出增长目标的同时，降低了货币当局对物价的控制能力。四、由于外汇储备增长过快，除了贷款基准利率的调整具有一定的流动性紧缩效应之外，其他工具变量调整的流动性紧缩效应有限。五、当面对“三元悖论”冲突时，我们应该给予货币政策独立性以更大的权重；流动性过剩并不一定能够马上对物价产生影响，政策反应滞后以及过于严厉均会给经济带来灾难性的后果；在对外开放中，我们应该对资本市场开放、短期资本流入、贸易赤字占GDP的比例等给予足够的重视。六、在流动性过剩时期，如果中央银行能够专注于物价与产出目标，采用多方面措施治理与利用过多的流动性，我们将能够更好地应对流动性过剩的潜在风险。
[Abstract]:Whether it is an inflation targeting country or a traditional country with a monetary supply as an intermediary, it is necessary to effectively monitor the liquidity situation of the macro-economy, because the liquidity situation conveys rich information about money supply and demand and the changes in the future price level to the monetary authorities, and to the macro level. Economic, financial stability has an important impact.
Since the reform and opening up, the three levels of China's money supply has increased considerably. However, the relationship between the price and output of the traditional currency quantity theory is different from that of the price and output. The high growth of China's currency has not been transformed to the rise in the level of price and output, which is called "the mystery of China" by the international economic circle. In particular, after the Asian financial crisis of 1997, although our country's money supply still maintained a fast growth rate, the consumption price of the residents had been low or even negative growth for many years. The long-term high growth of money supply inevitably led to the situation of excess liquidity in China's money and money. After 2003, China's national economy is in a new stage of rising economic cycle. Under the influence of sustained and rapid economic growth and RMB appreciation, the surplus liquidity caused by the global loose monetary policy and low interest rate environment influx into the Chinese market in a variety of forms, so that China faces the liquidity pan. In the second half of 2007, the overall outbreak of the subprime crisis broke out in the second half of 2007. The situation of excess liquidity was reversed in the second half of.2008. In order to cope with the international financial crisis, the monetary regulation changed from "tight" to "moderately loose". By the 20092010 year, because of the continued implementation of the loose currency policy, as well as in the United States and other countries. The impact of the "quantitative easing" policy, the macro liquidity surplus, excess liquidity has become one of the major challenges facing our country's macroeconomic sustainability and healthy development. It poses a great threat to the formulation and implementation of monetary policy and the stability of economic and financial stability. The study not only helps to deepen the understanding of the relationship between the money supply and the price and output in theory, but also helps to resolve the risk of excess liquidity in the practice of macroeconomic policy, and promote the sustained and healthy development of our economy.
The problem of excess liquidity has aroused great concern from all walks of life. However, there is no consensus on the causes of excess liquidity, the standard of judgement and its impact on the macro-economy. Liquidity management is one of the important responsibilities of the central bank. As well as the limitations of the research content and the level of research, this paper mainly studies the macro level of liquidity surplus and its impact on the effectiveness of China's monetary policy. This paper starts with the concept and measurement method of liquidity excess proposed by the Thorsten PolleitDieter Gerdesmeier (2005) economist of the European Central Bank (ECB), and 1 to China. In the past 978-2010 years, the macro liquidity situation was measured. On this basis, a theoretical and empirical study was carried out on the causes of excess liquidity in China. Then, the article focused on the effect of excess liquidity on the effectiveness of monetary policy in China, and evaluated the effect of the monetary policy tools to cope with the excess liquidity in China. Based on the experience and lessons of Germany, Japan, Mexico and other countries in overcoming excess liquidity, this paper puts forward policy proposals for China to deal with excess liquidity in the future.
The main conclusions are as follows: first, China's macro liquidity situation has a basic balance (1978-1994 years), relative shortage of liquidity (1995-1998 years), relative surplus of liquidity (2001-2006 years), rapid shortage of liquidity, gradual recovery and excess excess (2007-2010 years), four obvious stages. Two, foreign assets (mainly by trade) in recent years. The rapid increase in foreign exchange reserves caused by the ease of surplus is the main factor leading to the macro liquidity surplus in the two levels of M1 and M2 in China. Three, the excess liquidity is mainly through the expansion of bank credit to promote the rise of output and prices. Therefore, the excess liquidity has reduced the control of the price by the monetary authorities while realizing the target of output growth. Four, in addition to the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves, in addition to the adjustment of the loan benchmark interest rate has a certain liquidity contraction effect, the liquidity contraction effect of other tool variables is limited. Five, when facing the conflict of "three yuan paradox", we should give more weight to the independence of monetary policy; excess liquidity is not necessarily the same. It can have an immediate impact on prices, the lag of policy response and too much severity will bring disastrous consequences to the economy. In the opening up, we should pay enough attention to the opening of the capital market, the short term capital inflow, the proportion of the trade deficit in the GDP, and so on. Six, in the period of excess liquidity, if the central bank can concentrate on it We should be able to better cope with the potential risks of excess liquidity by adopting various measures to control and utilize excessive liquidity in terms of price and output objectives.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F822.0;F224
本文编号：2152322
[Abstract]:Whether it is an inflation targeting country or a traditional country with a monetary supply as an intermediary, it is necessary to effectively monitor the liquidity situation of the macro-economy, because the liquidity situation conveys rich information about money supply and demand and the changes in the future price level to the monetary authorities, and to the macro level. Economic, financial stability has an important impact.
Since the reform and opening up, the three levels of China's money supply has increased considerably. However, the relationship between the price and output of the traditional currency quantity theory is different from that of the price and output. The high growth of China's currency has not been transformed to the rise in the level of price and output, which is called "the mystery of China" by the international economic circle. In particular, after the Asian financial crisis of 1997, although our country's money supply still maintained a fast growth rate, the consumption price of the residents had been low or even negative growth for many years. The long-term high growth of money supply inevitably led to the situation of excess liquidity in China's money and money. After 2003, China's national economy is in a new stage of rising economic cycle. Under the influence of sustained and rapid economic growth and RMB appreciation, the surplus liquidity caused by the global loose monetary policy and low interest rate environment influx into the Chinese market in a variety of forms, so that China faces the liquidity pan. In the second half of 2007, the overall outbreak of the subprime crisis broke out in the second half of 2007. The situation of excess liquidity was reversed in the second half of.2008. In order to cope with the international financial crisis, the monetary regulation changed from "tight" to "moderately loose". By the 20092010 year, because of the continued implementation of the loose currency policy, as well as in the United States and other countries. The impact of the "quantitative easing" policy, the macro liquidity surplus, excess liquidity has become one of the major challenges facing our country's macroeconomic sustainability and healthy development. It poses a great threat to the formulation and implementation of monetary policy and the stability of economic and financial stability. The study not only helps to deepen the understanding of the relationship between the money supply and the price and output in theory, but also helps to resolve the risk of excess liquidity in the practice of macroeconomic policy, and promote the sustained and healthy development of our economy.
The problem of excess liquidity has aroused great concern from all walks of life. However, there is no consensus on the causes of excess liquidity, the standard of judgement and its impact on the macro-economy. Liquidity management is one of the important responsibilities of the central bank. As well as the limitations of the research content and the level of research, this paper mainly studies the macro level of liquidity surplus and its impact on the effectiveness of China's monetary policy. This paper starts with the concept and measurement method of liquidity excess proposed by the Thorsten PolleitDieter Gerdesmeier (2005) economist of the European Central Bank (ECB), and 1 to China. In the past 978-2010 years, the macro liquidity situation was measured. On this basis, a theoretical and empirical study was carried out on the causes of excess liquidity in China. Then, the article focused on the effect of excess liquidity on the effectiveness of monetary policy in China, and evaluated the effect of the monetary policy tools to cope with the excess liquidity in China. Based on the experience and lessons of Germany, Japan, Mexico and other countries in overcoming excess liquidity, this paper puts forward policy proposals for China to deal with excess liquidity in the future.
The main conclusions are as follows: first, China's macro liquidity situation has a basic balance (1978-1994 years), relative shortage of liquidity (1995-1998 years), relative surplus of liquidity (2001-2006 years), rapid shortage of liquidity, gradual recovery and excess excess (2007-2010 years), four obvious stages. Two, foreign assets (mainly by trade) in recent years. The rapid increase in foreign exchange reserves caused by the ease of surplus is the main factor leading to the macro liquidity surplus in the two levels of M1 and M2 in China. Three, the excess liquidity is mainly through the expansion of bank credit to promote the rise of output and prices. Therefore, the excess liquidity has reduced the control of the price by the monetary authorities while realizing the target of output growth. Four, in addition to the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves, in addition to the adjustment of the loan benchmark interest rate has a certain liquidity contraction effect, the liquidity contraction effect of other tool variables is limited. Five, when facing the conflict of "three yuan paradox", we should give more weight to the independence of monetary policy; excess liquidity is not necessarily the same. It can have an immediate impact on prices, the lag of policy response and too much severity will bring disastrous consequences to the economy. In the opening up, we should pay enough attention to the opening of the capital market, the short term capital inflow, the proportion of the trade deficit in the GDP, and so on. Six, in the period of excess liquidity, if the central bank can concentrate on it We should be able to better cope with the potential risks of excess liquidity by adopting various measures to control and utilize excessive liquidity in terms of price and output objectives.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F822.0;F224
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