国际热钱流入我国的问题研究

发布时间：2018-07-31 08:38

【摘要】：伴随着经济全球化以及金融一体化的发展，各国间贸易联系日益频繁，这为国际热钱在各国间频繁流动创造了条件，同时金融衍生工具的不断创新也为国际热钱以多种渠道流入其它国家提供了可能。2007年美国爆发次贷危机，随后其演变为席卷全球的金融海啸，世界各国经济都因此遭受重创。作为新兴的市场经济国家之一，我国率先走出经济衰退的困境，并一直保持着较高的经济增长速度，同时自2005年汇率改革以来，人民币对美元汇率持续单边升值，美元利率持续走低，中美利差倒挂现象非常严重。在这样的大背景下，人民币升值预期非常强烈，越来越多的国际热钱通过各种渠道流入我国市场进行套利。金融业是我国经济发展的重要行业，因而加深对国际热流入问题的研究以确保我国金融业健康稳定的发展，，以尽可能降低金融危机在我国发生的概率，具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文首先介绍了国际热钱流入我国的规模和渠道，运用残差法对国际热钱的规模进行估算，测量出截止到2010年底流入我国的国际热钱数量达到1808亿美元，进而分析近年来国际热钱进入我国的渠道，主要包括经常项目渠道、资本项目渠道、个人渠道和地下钱庄等灰色渠道。其次对国际热钱流入我国的原因进行分析，指出宽松的国际金融环境（即金融自由化、金融一体化以及资本证券化不断发展）、我国宏观经济基本面发展良好、人民币升值预期、中美利率倒挂、以及我国资本市场发展迅速是国际热钱流入我国的主要原因。再次，分析国际热钱大量流入对我国经济各个层面产生的不良影响，指出它干扰我国宏观调控政策的实施，增加宏观调控的难度；削弱我国货币政策的有效性和独立性，改变我国的货币供给结构，使得我国货币政策实施进退两难；使我国资产价格急剧上升，严重影响国民经济健康发展；进一步增加我国的外汇储备，给人民币升值造成巨大的压力。最后，借鉴其它遭受国际热钱冲击国家的监管经验，针对我国具体国情提出防范国际热钱流入的对策建议，主要包括完善人民币汇率机制、构建更有效的监控机制、加强防范资本流动风险控制的国际合作、提取无息存款准备金、必要时征收托宾税以及创新外汇储备管理。
[Abstract]:With the development of economic globalization and financial integration, trade links between countries are becoming more and more frequent, which creates conditions for the frequent flow of international hot money among countries. At the same time, the continuous innovation of financial derivatives also makes it possible for international hot money to flow into other countries through various channels. In 2007, the United States broke out the subprime mortgage crisis, and then it turned into a financial tsunami that swept the world. As one of the emerging market economy countries, China is the first to emerge from the economic recession, and has maintained a high economic growth rate. At the same time, since the exchange rate reform in 2005, the RMB has continuously appreciated unilaterally against the US dollar. The dollar interest rate continues to fall, the Chinese-American spread upside down phenomenon is very serious. Against this background, RMB appreciation is expected to be very strong, and more international hot money flows into our market through various channels to carry out arbitrage. The financial industry is an important industry in the economic development of our country, so the research on the international heat inflow problem is deepened to ensure the healthy and stable development of the financial industry of our country, so as to reduce the probability of the financial crisis in our country as far as possible. It has important theoretical and practical significance. This paper first introduces the scale and channel of international hot money flowing into our country, estimates the scale of international hot money by residual method, and measures that the amount of international hot money flowing into our country by the end of 2010 has reached 180.8 billion US dollars. Then it analyzes the channels of international hot money entering our country in recent years, including current account channel, capital account channel, individual channel and underground bank. Secondly, by analyzing the reasons for the inflow of international hot money into China, the author points out that the relaxed international financial environment (i.e. financial liberalization, financial integration and the continuous development of capital securitization), the macroeconomic fundamentals of our country are developing well, and the appreciation of the RMB is expected. Chinese-American interest rate inversion and the rapid development of China's capital market are the main reasons for the inflow of international hot money into China. Thirdly, it analyzes the adverse effects of the international hot money inflow on all levels of China's economy, points out that it interferes with the implementation of China's macro-control policies, increases the difficulty of macro-control, and weakens the effectiveness and independence of China's monetary policy. Changing the monetary supply structure of our country makes the implementation of monetary policy of our country in a dilemma; causing the asset price of our country to rise sharply, seriously affecting the healthy development of the national economy; and further increasing our foreign exchange reserves. Put great pressure on the appreciation of RMB. Finally, based on the regulatory experience of other countries affected by international hot money, the paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to prevent the inflow of international hot money according to the specific conditions of our country, mainly including perfecting the RMB exchange rate mechanism and establishing a more effective monitoring mechanism. We should strengthen international cooperation to prevent the risk of capital flow, draw out interest-free deposit reserves, levy Tobin tax if necessary, and innovate the management of foreign exchange reserves.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6

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