工业竞争力、资本账户开放与货币国际化——德国马克的国际化为什么比日元成功

发布时间：2018-08-09 10:57

【摘要】：二战结束后德国马克和日元国际化的初始条件基本相同,但是马克在全球官方外汇储备中的份额从1973年的不到2%稳步上升到欧元诞生前夕的13%左右;而日元则是一路下滑,从1991年高峰时期的8.5%下降到2013年的3.9%。德国马克的国际化之所以比日元成功,作者认为关键在于两者国际化的路径不同。马克走了一条"工业型"的国际化道路:德国以强大的工业竞争力为核心打造了一个全球产业链和相关生产要素的交易与分配网络,在这个网络里,马克是绝对主导的支付清算货币。日元则走了一条"金融型"国际化道路:通过放开资本管制,日本政府积极鼓励本国和海外金融机构参与和日元相关的金融资产交易,以金融渠道对外输出日元。马克和日元国际化的历史经验表明:简单的解除资本管制并不能构成对一国货币国际化可持续、强有力的支撑,强大的工业竞争力以及在此基础之上对全球产业链和商品及要素交易网络的控制,即"工业型"的货币国际化之路,才是大国特别是后起大国更应选择的途径。
[Abstract]:The initial conditions for internationalization of the German mark and the yen were essentially the same after World War II, but the mark's share of the world's official foreign exchange reserves rose steadily from less than 2 per cent in 1973 to about 13 per cent before the euro was born, while the yen continued to slide. It dropped from a peak of 8.5% in 1991 to 3.9% in 2013. The author believes that the key to the success of the German mark is the different path of internationalization. Mark took the "industrial" path of internationalization: Germany built a global network of industrial chains and related factors of production, trading and distribution, with strong industrial competitiveness at its core, and in this network, Mark is the absolute dominant payment clearing currency. By liberalizing capital controls, the Japanese government has actively encouraged domestic and overseas financial institutions to participate in transactions related to the yen and exported yen through financial channels. The historical experience of the internationalization of the Mark and the yen shows that simply deregulating capital does not constitute a sustainable and strong support for the internationalization of a country's currency. On the basis of strong industrial competitiveness and the control of global industrial chain and commodity and factor trading network, that is, the way of currency internationalization of "industrial type" is the most important way for big countries, especially the later ones.
【作者单位】：中共中央党校国际战略研究所;
【分类号】：F835.16

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