地方政府融资平台贷款风险研究

发布时间：2018-08-13 12:10

【摘要】：地方政府融资平台是以地方政府为主体，，以所属投融资机构为载体，主要承担政府在本地进行城市基础设施建设等公共项目的开发。2008年，国家为了应对全球金融风暴、继续城市化建设等，开始大力支持地方政府融资平台的发展，并取得了良好的成效。随后融资平台进入了高速扩张阶段，使得贷款规模迅速膨胀，导致目前地方政府融资平台已经进入偿债高峰期，并且面临着较大还贷压力。虽然国务院在2010年下发了关于加强地方政府融资平台公司管理的通知，银监会在2012年已经开始研究如何给融资平台的贷款进行有条件的延期，但融资平台面临的偿债风险仍然不小。以上情况表明，如何应对地方政府融资平台在偿债高峰期存在的贷款风险，已经成为一个重点关注的问题。首先研究了地方政府融资平台的概念和发展过程，贷款风险的基本理论，比较了KMV、Credit Risk+和Credit Metrics三种贷款风险度量模型的特点和优缺点。接着分析了我国地方政府融资平台当前的债务情况，贷款风险的可能成因与潜在后果，以及融资平台贷款风险实际案例。然后通过使用Credit Metrics模型计算VaR在险价值来建模，并结合融资平台公司的贷款进行实证，验证我国融资平台的贷款风险。最后提出对融资平台贷款风险进行监管与防范的策略。根据我国地方政府融资平台的特征和贷款风险情况，结合实际研究了如何对融资平台的贷款风险进行更好的度量，提出了融资平台的贷款风险管理策略，将有助于加强对地方政府融资平台贷款风险的防范和管理，保障我国地方政府融资平台的健康发展。
[Abstract]:Local government financing platform is a local government as the main body, with affiliated investment and financing institutions as the carrier, mainly undertake the government in the local urban infrastructure construction and other public projects development. In 2008, the country in order to cope with the global financial turmoil, Continued urbanization, began to support the development of local government financing platform, and achieved good results. Then the financing platform entered the stage of rapid expansion, which made the loan scale expand rapidly, leading to the current local government financing platform has entered the peak of debt service, and is facing a greater pressure to repay the loan. Although the State Council issued a notice in 2010 on strengthening the management of local government financing platform companies, the CBRC began to study in 2012 how to extend loans to the financing platform in a conditional manner. But the financing platform faces the repayment risk is still not small. The above situation shows that how to deal with the loan risk of local government financing platform in the peak of debt servicing has become a key concern. Firstly, this paper studies the concept and development process of local government financing platform, the basic theory of loan risk, and compares the characteristics, advantages and disadvantages of three loan risk measurement models: KMV Credit Risk and Credit Metrics. Then it analyzes the current debt situation of the local government financing platform, the possible causes and potential consequences of the loan risk, and the actual cases of the financing platform loan risk. Then, by using Credit Metrics model to calculate the value of VaR in risk, and combining with the loan of the financing platform company to verify the loan risk of the financing platform in China. Finally, the paper puts forward some strategies to supervise and prevent the loan risk of financing platform. According to the characteristics of local government financing platform and the situation of loan risk, this paper studies how to better measure the loan risk of financing platform, and puts forward the loan risk management strategy of financing platform. It will help to strengthen the prevention and management of loan risk of local government financing platform and ensure the healthy development of local government financing platform.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.4

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