人民币汇率波动对外商直接投资的影响研究

发布时间：2018-08-21 09:19

【摘要】：随着世界经济高度一体化，流入我国的外商直接投资规模越发扩大，，我国外商直接投资从高速成长期进入成熟期，引资结构发生巨大变化，FDI已经成为我国经济发展的重要组成部分。自2005年中国实施浮动汇率制度以来，汇率波动幅度的加大，影响着投资环境，增加了外商直接投资的不确定性，人民币汇率变动对FDI投资的影响呈现出一定复杂性。汇率作为影响外商直接投资的重要因素，主要体现在汇率水平及波动两个方面，因此，探究人民币汇率变动对我国外商直接投资的影响具有现实意义。本文首先详细地介绍了人民币汇率制度和汇率水平及波动相关概念，汇率水平是指货币当前价值，波动是指货币价值变动程度。接着在数学模型理论分析FDI机制的基础上，运用VAR模型、协整理论、误差修正模型、格兰杰因果关系检验等研究方法，从总体上分析我国FDI流入量与人民币汇率水平、汇率波动之间的长期协整关系和短期动态非均衡关系。通过对1994年到2013年的年度数据进行实证研究，结果表明，长期地看，人民币实际有效汇率升值会抑制外商直接投资，汇率水平的波动对外商直接投资没有直接影响；而短期内汇率的升值对外商的抑制作用比长期更明显，汇率波动的影响依旧不显著；中国市场规模和对外开放度对FDI流入有正面影响。本文最后基于我国外商直接投资的特点和实证检验的分析结果，提出了今后我国吸引外商直接投资的政策建议，应该积极支持、充分引导外资，规范汇率制度和引资制度，保持汇率进中求稳，为吸引外资创造良好的市场环境。
[Abstract]:With the high degree of integration of the world economy, the scale of foreign direct investment (FDI) flowing into China has expanded more and more, and the foreign direct investment (FDI) in China has entered a mature period from the period of high-speed growth. FDI has become an important part of China's economic development. Since the implementation of floating exchange rate system in China in 2005, the increase of exchange rate fluctuation has affected the investment environment and increased the uncertainty of foreign direct investment. The impact of RMB exchange rate change on FDI investment has shown some complexity. Exchange rate, as an important factor affecting foreign direct investment, is mainly reflected in two aspects: exchange rate level and fluctuation. Therefore, it is of practical significance to explore the influence of RMB exchange rate change on foreign direct investment in China. This paper first introduces the RMB exchange rate regime and the relative concepts of exchange rate level and fluctuation in detail. The exchange rate level refers to the current value of the currency and the fluctuation refers to the degree of change in the value of the currency. Then on the basis of mathematical model theory analysis of FDI mechanism, using VAR model, cointegration theory, error correction model, Granger causality test and other research methods, this paper analyzes FDI inflow and RMB exchange rate level in China as a whole. Long-term cointegration and short-term dynamic disequilibrium between exchange rate fluctuations. Through the empirical study of the annual data from 1994 to 2013, the results show that, in the long run, the appreciation of the real effective exchange rate of RMB will restrain foreign direct investment, and the fluctuation of exchange rate level has no direct impact on foreign direct investment. In the short term, the revaluation of exchange rate is more obvious than in the long run, and the effect of exchange rate fluctuation is still not significant, and the scale of Chinese market and the degree of opening to the outside world have a positive effect on the inflow of FDI. Finally, based on the characteristics of foreign direct investment in China and the results of empirical analysis, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions for attracting foreign direct investment in China in the future. We should actively support, fully guide foreign investment, standardize the exchange rate system and foreign investment system. Keep the exchange rate stable and create a good market environment for attracting foreign investment.
【学位授予单位】：东华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F832.6

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