我国货币超发问题的实证研究
发布时间：2018-09-03 09:05
【摘要】：近些年来，“货币超发”问题已成为社会各界一个争论的热点。相应的，流动性过剩则成了描述中国经济现状的关键词之一。目前的研究学者普遍认为流动性过剩是指实际的广义货币供应量持续并且显著地超出社会经济产出所需要的货币数量。基于此为了测量流动性过剩与否，本文首先介绍了几种测量流动性的理论和方法，然后从货币需求的角度来进行实证研究,通过构造广义货币需求模型在与实际的广义货币供给量进行比较，从而得出流动性是否过剩。实证过程中本文选取2001年第1季度到2010年第4季度的数据作为原始样本，模拟出我国广义货币需求模型，然后选取2011年第1季度到第4季度数据作为分析样本，对该时期的流动性过剩状况进行实证研究，实证结果表明：在分析样本期内，我国各个季度均存在流动性过剩的情况，广义货币过剩总量7.21万亿元人民币，每季度平均过剩1.8万亿元人民币。而从单个季度来看，，第一季度和第三季度流动性过剩的程度。 通过前面的实证结论，本文又从流动性过剩在我国的表现、影响进行了系统分析,然后得出了造成货币超发是由于多重原因共同作用形成的结论。以间接融资为主导的金融体系是流动性过剩的制度原因，高储蓄率与高投资率是导致流动性过剩的经济原因，人民币升值预期、外汇储备激增、汇率体制僵化共同造成的货币被动性投放是流动性过剩的货币条件。 最后，根据流动性过剩形成的原因，本文分别提出了化解流动性过剩的政策建议。要化解当前我国的流动性过剩问题，应从制度、政策、运行机制等各个方面进行改进。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the issue of "currency overshoot" has become a hot issue in all walks of life. Accordingly, excess liquidity has become one of the key words to describe the current state of China's economy. Current researchers generally believe that excess liquidity refers to the amount of money that the actual broad money supply continues to exceed the amount of money needed by the social economic output. Based on this, in order to measure excess liquidity, this paper first introduces several theories and methods to measure liquidity, and then carries out empirical research from the perspective of monetary demand. By constructing the generalized money demand model and comparing it with the actual generalized money supply, we can find out whether there is excess liquidity. In the empirical process, this paper selects the data from the first quarter of 2001 to the fourth quarter of 2010 as the original sample, simulates the generalized money demand model of our country, and then selects the data from the first quarter to the fourth quarter of 2011 as the analysis sample. The empirical results show that there is excess liquidity in every quarter of China during the sample period, and the total amount of excess money in broad sense is RMB 7.21 trillion yuan. An average surplus of 1.8 trillion yuan per quarter. And from a single quarter, the first quarter and the third quarter of excess liquidity. Through the previous empirical conclusions, this paper makes a systematic analysis of the influence of excess liquidity in China, and then draws the conclusion that the currency overcirculation is caused by the joint action of multiple reasons. The financial system dominated by indirect financing is the institutional cause of excess liquidity, and the high savings rate and high investment rate are the economic reasons leading to excess liquidity. Currency passivity caused by rigid exchange rate system is the monetary condition of excess liquidity. Finally, according to the causes of excess liquidity, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to resolve the excess liquidity. In order to solve the problem of excess liquidity in our country, we should improve the system, policy, operation mechanism and so on.
【学位授予单位】：吉林财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F822.2
本文编号：2219520
[Abstract]:In recent years, the issue of "currency overshoot" has become a hot issue in all walks of life. Accordingly, excess liquidity has become one of the key words to describe the current state of China's economy. Current researchers generally believe that excess liquidity refers to the amount of money that the actual broad money supply continues to exceed the amount of money needed by the social economic output. Based on this, in order to measure excess liquidity, this paper first introduces several theories and methods to measure liquidity, and then carries out empirical research from the perspective of monetary demand. By constructing the generalized money demand model and comparing it with the actual generalized money supply, we can find out whether there is excess liquidity. In the empirical process, this paper selects the data from the first quarter of 2001 to the fourth quarter of 2010 as the original sample, simulates the generalized money demand model of our country, and then selects the data from the first quarter to the fourth quarter of 2011 as the analysis sample. The empirical results show that there is excess liquidity in every quarter of China during the sample period, and the total amount of excess money in broad sense is RMB 7.21 trillion yuan. An average surplus of 1.8 trillion yuan per quarter. And from a single quarter, the first quarter and the third quarter of excess liquidity. Through the previous empirical conclusions, this paper makes a systematic analysis of the influence of excess liquidity in China, and then draws the conclusion that the currency overcirculation is caused by the joint action of multiple reasons. The financial system dominated by indirect financing is the institutional cause of excess liquidity, and the high savings rate and high investment rate are the economic reasons leading to excess liquidity. Currency passivity caused by rigid exchange rate system is the monetary condition of excess liquidity. Finally, according to the causes of excess liquidity, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to resolve the excess liquidity. In order to solve the problem of excess liquidity in our country, we should improve the system, policy, operation mechanism and so on.
【学位授予单位】：吉林财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F822.2
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