财政支出对实际汇率的冲击效应研究——基于OECD国家的PVAR估计

发布时间：2018-09-04 13:19

【摘要】：开放经济条件下财政冲击会影响一国的国际竞争力和外部均衡。本文采用PVAR方法研究了OECD国家的各种财政支出对实际汇率的冲击效应。研究发现,财政支出对实际汇率的冲击效应,不但与财政支出的分类有关,而且与汇率制度有关。在固定汇率制度框架下,实际汇率倾向于升值;在浮动汇率制度框架下,实际汇率倾向于贬值。而对于冲击效应的大小和持久性而言,各种财政支出具有显著的差异,相对于财政消费支出,财政投资支出具有更大更持久的冲击效应;相对于财政非工资消费支出,财政工资消费支出具有更大更持久的冲击效应。就时间维度而言,实际汇率的财政支出冲击效应存在着与时弱化现象。
[Abstract]:Under the condition of open economy, financial shock will affect a country's international competitiveness and external equilibrium. In this paper, the PVAR method is used to study the impact of various fiscal expenditures on the real exchange rate in OECD countries. It is found that the impact of fiscal expenditure on the real exchange rate is not only related to the classification of fiscal expenditure, but also to the exchange rate system. Under the framework of fixed exchange rate system, the real exchange rate tends to appreciate, and under the floating exchange rate system, the real exchange rate tends to depreciate. For the magnitude and durability of the impact effect, there are significant differences in various fiscal expenditures. Compared with fiscal consumption expenditure, fiscal investment expenditure has a larger and more lasting impact effect, and compared to fiscal non-wage consumption expenditure, fiscal investment expenditure has a larger and more lasting impact effect. The fiscal wage consumption expenditure has the bigger and more lasting impact effect. As far as time dimension is concerned, the impact effect of real exchange rate on fiscal expenditure is weakened with time.
【作者单位】：浙江理工大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金青年项目:产业转移与区域协调发展:全球价值链视角下的对策研究(批准号08CJY005)资助成果之一浙江理工大学科研启动资金资助(项目编号1005820-Y)
【分类号】：F224;F810.45;F830.7

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