FDI、产业结构与国际经济周期协动性研究

发布时间：2018-09-05 15:43

【摘要】：本文分析国际贸易强度、外商直接投资(FDI)强度和产业结构变化与中国贸易伙伴经济周期协动变化的相关性,探讨在经济全球化条件下经济周期协动性的主要传递因素、传递效应及对中国经济增长的影响。选取1990—2008年中国及其27个主要贸易伙伴的数据,用面板数据模型的普通最小二乘估计法进行实证检验,研究结果表明:中国与发达贸易伙伴之间的经济周期协动性的影响因素中,贸易强度的影响大于投资强度。对中国与发展中贸易伙伴之间的经济周期协动性检验结果是:双边贸易强度、FDI强度、产业结构相似性与GDP周期协动性呈显著正相关关系。本文研究同时表明,虽然目前中国经济增长仍然主要靠国内劳动力和国内投资拉动,但双边贸易强度和FDI强度已经成为国际经济周期协动性的重要影响因素。经济全球化发展中出现国际经济周期趋同性,使国际经济政策协调的研究成为重要的课题。
[Abstract]:This paper analyzes the correlation between the intensity of international trade, the intensity of foreign direct investment (FDI) and the change of industrial structure and the cooperativeness of Chinese trading partners in the business cycle, and discusses the main transmission factors of the cooperativeness of the business cycle under the condition of economic globalization. Transmission effect and its effect on China's economic growth. Using the data of China and its 27 main trading partners from 1990 to 2008, the empirical test is carried out by using the general least square estimation method of panel data model. The results show that the influence of trade intensity is greater than that of investment among the influencing factors of economic cycle synergy between China and developed trading partners. The test results of the economic cycle synergy between China and developing trading partners are as follows: there is a significant positive correlation between the intensity of bilateral trade and the intensity of GDP, the similarity of industrial structure and the periodicity of GDP. This paper also shows that although China's economic growth is still mainly driven by domestic labor force and domestic investment, the intensity of bilateral trade and FDI has become an important factor affecting the coordination of the international economic cycle. The convergence of international economic cycle in the development of economic globalization makes the research of international economic policy coordination become an important subject.
【作者单位】：浙江工业大学经贸管理学院;浙江工业大学;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金课题的阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：F832.6;F121.3;F113.7

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