江西省森林碳汇交易价格均衡研究
发布时间：2018-09-05 20:35
【摘要】：气候变化是当今最重要的全球环境问题之一,它直接影响着所有的自然生态系统以及社会经济系统。全球气候变化带来的负面影响是全球人类面临的重大威胁,也是人类共同面对的巨大挑战。森林与气候变化有着十分密切的关系,在应对气候变化中森林具有独特的功能和地位。森林生态系统提供的众多公共服务,为人类做出了巨大贡献。然而,森林的所有者并没有得到相应的回报,原因在于森林生态价值的外部性。如何将森林生态价值量化,并反映到森林所有者或生产者的利润函数中,是世界各国政府和学术界关注的热点问题。森林是陆地上最大的有机碳库,树木的生长过程也是CO2的吸收过程,该过程能有效减少大气中CO2浓度。在全球应对气候变化的条件下,如何将森林碳汇及其价值量化,并反映到所有者或生产者的利润函数中,形成有效的价格机制,是当今学术界的焦点问题之一。 首先,本文简述了当今应对气候变化背景,在此基础上,根据KAYA公式构建了低碳经济模型,模型计算结果为：2007年,江西全省碳排放量为1.42亿t／年,人均碳排放量3.25t／人·年；利用模型计算江西森林植被抵消的本地区碳排放量0.265亿t／年,对江西省发展低碳经济的贡献率为18.7%。然后,对比多种森林碳储量和碳汇的计算方法,采用森林蓄积量扩展法计算江西森林碳储量和碳汇。计算结果为：2010年,江西森林碳储量为587.597×106t；按照江西森林蓄积增长率年均生长量4.03m3/hm2为基础,同时考虑多种因素的影响,推算出江西2020年江西森林碳储量为901.709×106t,2010年到2020年期间,江西森林总的碳汇潜力是314.112×106t,年均碳汇能力为31.411×106t。 其次,本文研究价值评估理论与森林碳汇经济学特性,得出森林碳汇价值评估模型；结合森林碳汇计量方法,计算了江西省森林碳汇的价值量。依据江西森林的状况,推算江西省2020年森林蓄积量为7.5亿m3,以此计算,得出在2010到2020年期间,森林年均碳汇能力可达到为31.411MtC。如果以68.3元/t C价位计算,则这期间的年均森林碳汇经济价值达21.45亿元；如果以305元/t C价位估算,其经济价值达95.80亿元；如以1024.5元/t C价格计算,其经济价值达321.65亿元。 再次,综合运用自然资源和环境经济学、微观经济学和可持续发展理论等相关经济学理论,在考察一般市场价值形成过程,结合实际问卷调查,304位居(或市)民调查、72家企业需求调查,52户林农与46个林场供给问卷调查,重点探讨森林碳汇的供给和需求,以及价格及形成条件和市场创建障碍等。构建了不同情景下的供给和需求函数。在不同情景下,碳汇交易的价格会发生变动：自愿情景下,需求曲线有较大的弹性,价格均衡点(Qo,Po)为(87553.03,23)；当有激励和引导机制的政策时,曲线会向右移动,价格均衡点(Qo,Po)为(105873.47,24.02),价格升高时,交易量增加；在征税情景下,个人和企业的对碳汇的需求曲线几乎是一条竖线,需求更趋向于刚性,价格均衡点(Qo,Po)为(67176.05,14.75)。在不同情景下,碳汇林(地)使用权的流转交易价格与供给和需求量的均衡：自愿情景下的价格均衡点(Qo,P0)为(1545,695.5)；激励情景下的价格均衡点(Qo,P0)为(4698,771.56)；征税情景下的价格均衡点(Qo,P0)为(2518.5,716.52)。在构建森林碳汇的供给函数和需求函数的基础上,结合南方森林产权交易市场2011年12月份交易的数据,对价格均衡模型进行实证研究,得到森林碳汇的价格和碳汇林(地)的价格。在林木砍伐之前,森林经营与森林碳汇经营相似,无林地的价格为1140元/hm2；当流转的面积保持不变时,有林地流转的平均价格是4308元/hm2；所以,碳汇林(地)使用权流转价格区间为1140元/hm2～4308元/hm2。森林活立木蓄积的价格是276.5元/m3,如果森林碳汇的生产与销售相当于林木砍伐之前的情况,通过森林蓄积量扩展法转换计算,得到森林碳汇的价格是230.04元/t C； 最后,结合森林碳汇计量和交易价格均衡过程研究,设计了适应江西森林碳汇发展的战略,探讨了鄱阳湖生态经济区碳基金的运作与管理模式。
[Abstract]:Climate change is one of the most important global environmental problems nowadays, which directly affects all natural ecosystems and socio-economic systems. The negative impact of global climate change is a major threat to mankind and a great challenge to mankind. Forest has a unique function and position in climate change. Many public services provided by forest ecosystems have contributed greatly to mankind. However, forest owners have not received corresponding returns because of the externality of forest ecological value. How to quantify forest ecological value and reflect it to forest owners or living beings Forest is the largest organic carbon pool on land, and the growth of trees is also a process of CO2 absorption. This process can effectively reduce the atmospheric CO2 concentration. How to quantify the forest carbon sink and its value under the conditions of global climate change and reflect it To form an effective price mechanism in the profit function of the owner or producer is one of the focuses in the academic circles.
Firstly, this paper briefly describes the current climate change background, on this basis, according to the KAYA formula to build a low-carbon economic model, the model results are as follows: in 2007, Jiangxi Province's carbon emissions are 142 million tons per year, per capita carbon emissions are 3.25 tons per person per year; using the model to calculate Jiangxi forest vegetation offset the region's carbon emissions of 0.26 billion tons. The contribution rate to the development of low-carbon economy in Jiangxi Province was 18.7%. Then, the forest carbon storage and carbon sink were calculated by using the method of forest stock expansion. On the basis of 0.03 m3/hm2 and considering the influence of various factors, the forest carbon storage in Jiangxi Province in 2020 was estimated to be 901.709 *106 t. From 2010 to 2020, the total carbon sink potential of Jiangxi forests was 314.112 *106 t, and the annual average carbon sink capacity was 31.411 *106 t.
Secondly, this paper studies the theory of value assessment and the economic characteristics of forest carbon sequestration, and obtains the evaluation model of forest carbon sequestration value. Combined with the forest carbon sequestration measurement method, the value of forest carbon sequestration in Jiangxi Province is calculated. The average annual carbon sink capacity of the forest could reach 31.411 MtC. If calculated at 68.3 yuan/t C price, the annual economic value of the forest carbon sink would reach 2.145 billion yuan; if estimated at 305 yuan/t C price, its economic value would reach 9.580 billion yuan; if calculated at 1024.5 yuan/t C price, its economic value would reach 32.165 billion yuan.
Thirdly, using the theories of natural resources and environment economics, micro-economics and sustainable development theory, this paper investigates the formation process of general market value, combines the actual questionnaire survey, 304 residents (or city) survey, 72 enterprises demand survey, 52 farmers and 46 forest farms supply questionnaire survey, focusing on forest carbon sink. In different scenarios, the price of carbon sink trading will change: in voluntary scenarios, the demand curve has greater flexibility, the price equilibrium point (Qo, Po) is (87553.03, 23); when there is an incentive and guidance mechanism of government. In the case of taxation, the demand curve for carbon sinks of individuals and enterprises is almost a vertical line, and the demand tends to be more rigid, and the price equilibrium point (Qo, Po) is (67176.05, 14.75). In different scenarios, the right to use carbon sinks (land) is granted. Equilibrium of price and supply and demand in circulation transaction: price equilibrium point (Qo, P 0) in voluntary scenario is (1545, 695.5); price equilibrium point (Qo, P 0) in incentive scenario is (4698, 771.56); price equilibrium point (Qo, P 0 0) in taxation scenario is (2518.5, 716.52). On the basis of constructing supply function and demand function of forest carbon sink, the conclusion is made. Based on the data of the South Forest Property Exchange Market in December 2011, the price equilibrium model was used to study the price of forest carbon sink and carbon sink forest (land). The average price of carbon sequestration is 4308 yuan / hm2; therefore, the price range of carbon sequestration forest (land) right of use is 1 140 yuan / hm2 ~ 4308 yuan / hm2. The price of forest standing stock is 276.5 yuan / m3. If the production and sale of forest carbon sequestration is equivalent to the situation before deforestation, forest carbon sequestration can be calculated by the method of forest stock expansion. The price is 230.04 yuan /t C;
Finally, combined with the research on the process of forest carbon sink measurement and transaction price equilibrium, the strategy of adapting to the development of forest carbon sink in Jiangxi Province was designed, and the operation and management mode of carbon fund in Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone was discussed.
【学位授予单位】：江西农业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F326.2
本文编号：2225393
[Abstract]:Climate change is one of the most important global environmental problems nowadays, which directly affects all natural ecosystems and socio-economic systems. The negative impact of global climate change is a major threat to mankind and a great challenge to mankind. Forest has a unique function and position in climate change. Many public services provided by forest ecosystems have contributed greatly to mankind. However, forest owners have not received corresponding returns because of the externality of forest ecological value. How to quantify forest ecological value and reflect it to forest owners or living beings Forest is the largest organic carbon pool on land, and the growth of trees is also a process of CO2 absorption. This process can effectively reduce the atmospheric CO2 concentration. How to quantify the forest carbon sink and its value under the conditions of global climate change and reflect it To form an effective price mechanism in the profit function of the owner or producer is one of the focuses in the academic circles.
Firstly, this paper briefly describes the current climate change background, on this basis, according to the KAYA formula to build a low-carbon economic model, the model results are as follows: in 2007, Jiangxi Province's carbon emissions are 142 million tons per year, per capita carbon emissions are 3.25 tons per person per year; using the model to calculate Jiangxi forest vegetation offset the region's carbon emissions of 0.26 billion tons. The contribution rate to the development of low-carbon economy in Jiangxi Province was 18.7%. Then, the forest carbon storage and carbon sink were calculated by using the method of forest stock expansion. On the basis of 0.03 m3/hm2 and considering the influence of various factors, the forest carbon storage in Jiangxi Province in 2020 was estimated to be 901.709 *106 t. From 2010 to 2020, the total carbon sink potential of Jiangxi forests was 314.112 *106 t, and the annual average carbon sink capacity was 31.411 *106 t.
Secondly, this paper studies the theory of value assessment and the economic characteristics of forest carbon sequestration, and obtains the evaluation model of forest carbon sequestration value. Combined with the forest carbon sequestration measurement method, the value of forest carbon sequestration in Jiangxi Province is calculated. The average annual carbon sink capacity of the forest could reach 31.411 MtC. If calculated at 68.3 yuan/t C price, the annual economic value of the forest carbon sink would reach 2.145 billion yuan; if estimated at 305 yuan/t C price, its economic value would reach 9.580 billion yuan; if calculated at 1024.5 yuan/t C price, its economic value would reach 32.165 billion yuan.
Thirdly, using the theories of natural resources and environment economics, micro-economics and sustainable development theory, this paper investigates the formation process of general market value, combines the actual questionnaire survey, 304 residents (or city) survey, 72 enterprises demand survey, 52 farmers and 46 forest farms supply questionnaire survey, focusing on forest carbon sink. In different scenarios, the price of carbon sink trading will change: in voluntary scenarios, the demand curve has greater flexibility, the price equilibrium point (Qo, Po) is (87553.03, 23); when there is an incentive and guidance mechanism of government. In the case of taxation, the demand curve for carbon sinks of individuals and enterprises is almost a vertical line, and the demand tends to be more rigid, and the price equilibrium point (Qo, Po) is (67176.05, 14.75). In different scenarios, the right to use carbon sinks (land) is granted. Equilibrium of price and supply and demand in circulation transaction: price equilibrium point (Qo, P 0) in voluntary scenario is (1545, 695.5); price equilibrium point (Qo, P 0) in incentive scenario is (4698, 771.56); price equilibrium point (Qo, P 0 0) in taxation scenario is (2518.5, 716.52). On the basis of constructing supply function and demand function of forest carbon sink, the conclusion is made. Based on the data of the South Forest Property Exchange Market in December 2011, the price equilibrium model was used to study the price of forest carbon sink and carbon sink forest (land). The average price of carbon sequestration is 4308 yuan / hm2; therefore, the price range of carbon sequestration forest (land) right of use is 1 140 yuan / hm2 ~ 4308 yuan / hm2. The price of forest standing stock is 276.5 yuan / m3. If the production and sale of forest carbon sequestration is equivalent to the situation before deforestation, forest carbon sequestration can be calculated by the method of forest stock expansion. The price is 230.04 yuan /t C;
Finally, combined with the research on the process of forest carbon sink measurement and transaction price equilibrium, the strategy of adapting to the development of forest carbon sink in Jiangxi Province was designed, and the operation and management mode of carbon fund in Poyang Lake Eco-economic Zone was discussed.
【学位授予单位】：江西农业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F326.2
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