人民币汇率波动对中美贸易差额的影响
发布时间：2018-09-06 12:47
【摘要】：中美两国自1979年1月1日建交以来,在政治、经济、文化等多个领域广泛合作,取得了多项成果,尤其是双边经贸的发展,在34年的交往中硕果累累。改革开放后,美国俨然已成为中国最重要的贸易伙伴,而中国也于2007年起成为美国最大的进口来源国。据中国海关统计,2012年1月至9月,中美商品贸易总额达3554.2亿美元,较2011年同期增长294.8亿美元,同比高出9个百分点,其中对美出口商品总额达2581.6亿美元,自美国进口商品总额972.6亿美元,实现净出口额高达1609亿美元。简而言之,中美两国的经贸关系已由互惠互利的合作关系上升为唇齿相依的战略合作者关系。 然而两国的贸易往来近几年来摩擦不断,在美方看来,这很大程度上归咎于中国的币值问题。从2001年开始,人民币币值是否被低估引起了国际社会及学术界的广泛关注与讨论,并且由最初单纯的经济问题上升至政治问题,在这场持久战中,美国无疑是主要的舆论制造者,不断推动着人民币的升值。2005年7月21日,中国人民银行宣布即日起实施“以市场供求为基础,参考一揽子货币进行调节,有管理的浮动汇率制度”,这无疑将我国的汇率制度改革进程推向一个全新的阶段。一个新的汇率制度的产生往往有着深刻的历史背景,对于我国而言,美国——这一支巨大的经济力量自始至终都极大程度地影响着我国的金融体制与汇率形成机制。自中美贸易出现顺差鸿沟伊始,美国便成为迫使人民币升值的主力军,并将顺差作为要挟人民币升值的理由,大肆鼓吹“中国威胁论”,而诸多唯美国马首是瞻的西欧国家以及日韩等国也或多或少地拿我国与之贸易顺差大做文章。 汇率改革七年来,美方依然坚决地认为人民币理应升值,其主要理由为：中国政府对货币运行机制的人为操纵导致了美国严重的失业问题和巨大的贸易逆差。而截至2012年12月,人民币兑美元汇率已跌至6.3左右,较汇率制度改革伊始时的8.27,人民币足足升值了23.82%。纵观2005年后的汇率与中美贸易相关数据,不难发现人民币汇率升值的同时,中美贸易余额仍然在不断扩大,美国的贸易逆差并没有像美国所希望的那样随人民币的升值而有所减小。由此可见,人民币升值不可能彻底解决中美之间严重的贸易失衡问题,美国数年来将其国内严重的失业问题归咎于人民币币值的低估也是毫无科学根据可言的。 本文将中美两国于改革开放后的双边贸易情况以及两国货币的汇率作为主要分析对象,首先对改革开放以来至今我国汇率制度的变迁及对应同时期人民币的汇率变动情况进行了回顾,并结合以上信息对1978年以来的中美贸易情况图文并茂地进行了分析；然后通过建立标准的两国之间的不完全替代模型,选取2005年第一季度到2012年第三季度(季度数据)的中美贸易收支、中国实际GDP、美国实际GDP和人民币兑美元实际汇率的数据(经名义汇率数据处理后得到),对人民币兑美元实际汇率对中美贸易收支之间进行了单位根检验、格兰杰因果检验以及协整检验,发现中美贸易差额与人民币兑美元实际汇率间的确存在协整关系。并且,笔者还计算出中美商品贸易的进出口弹性之和约为1.56,满足马歇尔勒纳条件,说明在短期内汇率对中美两国贸易有较为显著的影响。 由此,笔者最后得出的结论为：汇率仅仅是造成中美贸易顺差的辅因,真正的主因是美国的国内生产总值,它对两国贸易不平衡现象的产生存在最大的影响。此外,造成巨额顺差的因素还有很多,包括中美两国的贸易结构、美国对华的出口管制以及统计口径的不一致等等。因此,美国逼迫人民币升值,其醉翁之意不在酒,而是另有所图——美国大选政治的需要、遏制中国的发展、减少对中国的巨额负债等等。在此基础上,笔者进一步针对缓解中美贸易顺差这一问题提出自己的政策建议,主要从以下几方面入手：一是根据中美贸易发展的具体情况进一步完善人民币汇率形成机制；二是转变我国目前出口导向型的发展策略,扩大内需；三是多渠道优化中美贸易的商品结构；四是扩大美国对华的服务贸易的进口；五是打开视野,实现我国企业出口市场的多元化；六是抓住全球化机遇,推动我国企业走出去的步伐,实现跨国经营。
[Abstract]:Since the establishment of diplomatic relations on January 1, 1979, China and the United States have cooperated extensively in various fields, such as politics, economy, culture and so on. Many achievements have been made, especially in the development of bilateral economy and trade. After 34 years of exchanges, the United States has become the most important trade partner of China, and China has become the biggest advance of the United States since 2007. According to the statistics of China Customs, the total merchandise trade between China and the United States between January and September 2012 reached 355.42 billion US dollars, an increase of 29.48 billion US dollars over the same period in 2011, 9 percentage points higher than the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period. Among them, the total merchan As a result, Sino-US economic and trade relations have risen from a mutually beneficial cooperative relationship to a mutually dependent strategic cooperative relationship.
However, the trade between the two countries has been in constant friction in recent years, which, in the view of the US side, is largely attributable to China's currency value. Since 2001, whether the value of the RMB is undervalued has aroused widespread concern and discussion in the international community and academic circles, and has risen from the initial simple economic issues to political issues, in this protracted war. On July 21, 2005, the People's Bank of China announced the implementation of a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, with reference to a package of currencies, which will undoubtedly push the reform of China's exchange rate system to a new level. The emergence of a new exchange rate regime often has a profound historical background. For China, the United States, a huge economic force, has greatly influenced the financial system and exchange rate formation mechanism of China from beginning to end. Army, and the surplus as a reason to coerce the appreciation of the renminbi, widely advocated the "China threat theory", and many only the United States is looking forward to Western European countries and Japan and South Korea and other countries more or less to China's trade surplus with it.
Seven years after the exchange rate reform, the US side has remained firmly convinced that the Renminbi should appreciate, mainly because the Chinese government's manipulation of the currency operation mechanism has led to serious unemployment and a huge trade deficit in the United States. It is not difficult to find that the trade balance between China and the United States is still expanding, and the US trade deficit is not decreasing with the appreciation of the RMB as expected by the United States. There is no scientific basis for the U.S. to blame the undervaluation of the Renminbi for years of serious unemployment in the country, which could completely solve the serious trade imbalance between China and the United States.
This paper takes the bilateral trade situation between China and the United States after the reform and opening up and the exchange rate of their currencies as the main analysis object. First, it reviews the changes of China's exchange rate system since the reform and opening up and the exchange rate changes of RMB in the corresponding period, and combines the above information to analyze the Sino-US trade situation since 1978. Then, by establishing a standard incomplete substitution model between the two countries, we select the Sino-US trade balance from the first quarter of 2005 to the third quarter of 2012 (quarterly data), China's real GDP, the real GDP of the United States and the real exchange rate of Renminbi against the U.S. dollar (after processing the nominal exchange rate data), to the people. The unit root test, Granger causality test and cointegration test of the real exchange rate of RMB against US dollar show that there is a cointegration relationship between the trade balance between China and US and the real exchange rate of RMB against US dollar. The NAC conditions indicate that the exchange rate has a significant impact on Sino US trade in the short term.
Therefore, the author concludes that the exchange rate is only a subsidiary factor of the Sino-US trade surplus, and the real main factor is the US GDP, which has the greatest impact on the production and survival of the trade imbalance between the two countries. Therefore, the United States forces the appreciation of the RMB, and its drunken intention is not to drink, but to have other purposes - the needs of the U.S. election politics, to curb China's development, to reduce China's huge debt and so on. On this basis, the author further aims at alleviating the Sino-U.S. trade surplus this issue from the Our policy suggestions are as follows: firstly, to further improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism according to the specific situation of Sino-US trade development; secondly, to change China's current export-oriented development strategy and expand domestic demand; thirdly, to optimize the commodity structure of Sino-US trade through multiple channels; and fourthly, to expand the service trade between the United States and China. Easy import; Fifth, open the horizon to realize the diversification of China's enterprises'export market; Sixth, seize the opportunity of globalization, promote the pace of China's enterprises going out and realize transnational operation.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752.7;F832.6
本文编号：2226396
[Abstract]:Since the establishment of diplomatic relations on January 1, 1979, China and the United States have cooperated extensively in various fields, such as politics, economy, culture and so on. Many achievements have been made, especially in the development of bilateral economy and trade. After 34 years of exchanges, the United States has become the most important trade partner of China, and China has become the biggest advance of the United States since 2007. According to the statistics of China Customs, the total merchandise trade between China and the United States between January and September 2012 reached 355.42 billion US dollars, an increase of 29.48 billion US dollars over the same period in 2011, 9 percentage points higher than the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period in the same period. Among them, the total merchan As a result, Sino-US economic and trade relations have risen from a mutually beneficial cooperative relationship to a mutually dependent strategic cooperative relationship.
However, the trade between the two countries has been in constant friction in recent years, which, in the view of the US side, is largely attributable to China's currency value. Since 2001, whether the value of the RMB is undervalued has aroused widespread concern and discussion in the international community and academic circles, and has risen from the initial simple economic issues to political issues, in this protracted war. On July 21, 2005, the People's Bank of China announced the implementation of a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, with reference to a package of currencies, which will undoubtedly push the reform of China's exchange rate system to a new level. The emergence of a new exchange rate regime often has a profound historical background. For China, the United States, a huge economic force, has greatly influenced the financial system and exchange rate formation mechanism of China from beginning to end. Army, and the surplus as a reason to coerce the appreciation of the renminbi, widely advocated the "China threat theory", and many only the United States is looking forward to Western European countries and Japan and South Korea and other countries more or less to China's trade surplus with it.
Seven years after the exchange rate reform, the US side has remained firmly convinced that the Renminbi should appreciate, mainly because the Chinese government's manipulation of the currency operation mechanism has led to serious unemployment and a huge trade deficit in the United States. It is not difficult to find that the trade balance between China and the United States is still expanding, and the US trade deficit is not decreasing with the appreciation of the RMB as expected by the United States. There is no scientific basis for the U.S. to blame the undervaluation of the Renminbi for years of serious unemployment in the country, which could completely solve the serious trade imbalance between China and the United States.
This paper takes the bilateral trade situation between China and the United States after the reform and opening up and the exchange rate of their currencies as the main analysis object. First, it reviews the changes of China's exchange rate system since the reform and opening up and the exchange rate changes of RMB in the corresponding period, and combines the above information to analyze the Sino-US trade situation since 1978. Then, by establishing a standard incomplete substitution model between the two countries, we select the Sino-US trade balance from the first quarter of 2005 to the third quarter of 2012 (quarterly data), China's real GDP, the real GDP of the United States and the real exchange rate of Renminbi against the U.S. dollar (after processing the nominal exchange rate data), to the people. The unit root test, Granger causality test and cointegration test of the real exchange rate of RMB against US dollar show that there is a cointegration relationship between the trade balance between China and US and the real exchange rate of RMB against US dollar. The NAC conditions indicate that the exchange rate has a significant impact on Sino US trade in the short term.
Therefore, the author concludes that the exchange rate is only a subsidiary factor of the Sino-US trade surplus, and the real main factor is the US GDP, which has the greatest impact on the production and survival of the trade imbalance between the two countries. Therefore, the United States forces the appreciation of the RMB, and its drunken intention is not to drink, but to have other purposes - the needs of the U.S. election politics, to curb China's development, to reduce China's huge debt and so on. On this basis, the author further aims at alleviating the Sino-U.S. trade surplus this issue from the Our policy suggestions are as follows: firstly, to further improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism according to the specific situation of Sino-US trade development; secondly, to change China's current export-oriented development strategy and expand domestic demand; thirdly, to optimize the commodity structure of Sino-US trade through multiple channels; and fourthly, to expand the service trade between the United States and China. Easy import; Fifth, open the horizon to realize the diversification of China's enterprises'export market; Sixth, seize the opportunity of globalization, promote the pace of China's enterprises going out and realize transnational operation.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F752.7;F832.6
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