我国商业银行供应链金融的国家风险研究

发布时间：2018-09-17 15:09

【摘要】：供应链金融是对一个产业供应链中的单个企业或上下游多个企业提供全面的金融服务,以促进供应链核心企业及上下游配套企业“产—供—销”链条的稳固和流转畅顺,并通过金融资本与实业经济协作,构筑银行、企业和商品供应链互利共存、持续发展、良性互动的产业生态。这是一种全新的金融服务模式,这种模式将供应链的管理理论及银行的管理理论有效的组合到一起,把信息流、物流和资金流作为一个整体来监控,不仅有效地解决了中小企业的融资问题,也为银行产品开拓了新的销售市场,提升了利润空间,同时还带动了物流业的发展。虽然供应链金融模式能够在一定程度上降低银行面临的风险,但是链条中仍隐含着一些风险,国家风险就是其中之一。国家风险不同于企业自身问题所产生的经营性风险,它是受国家政治、政策、社会发展、自然灾害等不由企业控制的外在因素所决定的风险,它是全球化的副产物。随着企业取代传统的民族国家成为全球化的主体,它成为将一国国家风险向别国乃至全世界进行传递的链条,并成为国家风险的最大的承担者和受害者。中国一向是贸易大国,我国商业银行在追随客户的要求下,其经营和管理也将会面临更多的国家风险,而联系银行、企业的供应金融服务模式也不可避免地会受到国家风险的影响。本文采用定量分析与定性分析相结合、理论解析与经典案例相结合的研究方法,着重对供应链金融国家风险的三个方面的问题进行研究。第一,如何识别国家风险。目前,国内外学者关于供应链金融的风险研究主要集中在信用风险等封闭条件下的风险,对于供应链金融的国家风险几乎无人研究。什么才是国家风险?国家风险是由什么构成的?供应链金融的国家风险的具体内容是什么? 第二,如何评估国家风险。国家风险是随时都存在的一种客观现象,那么这种国家风险到底有多大?我们应该如何判断国家风险的大小?有哪些指标可以作为判断国家风险的依据?哪种评估方法才是最合适的? 第三,如何控制国家风险。识别风险、评估风险的最终目的就是控制风险。那么我们应如何去控制国家风险?哪些措施是可行的?不同的国家风险种类又应该采取哪种相应措施?措施的力度该用多大? 围绕上述问题,本文共分为五章详细论述。除了在第一章提出问题和在第五章给出基本结论之外,本文主要用了三章对供应链金融的国家风险进行了具体的研究。第二章对如何识别国家风险进行了系统的论述。本文将供应链金融的国家风险来源分为三大类：经济金融风险、社会政治风险和自然风险,并针对这三类风险进行了详细的研究。第三章对如何评估和控制国家风险进行了系统的论述。对于国家风险评估方法的研究,本文从定性和定量两个角度进行,并结合国际知名评估机构的评估结果来验证国家风险评估结果的准确性,这就有效的克服了以往评估结果的主观性及不科学性。对于国家风险控制的研究,本文则从贷前检查和贷后监管两个角度出发,依据贷前和贷后的不同需求,采取不同的风险防范措施。第四章本文选取了一个典型的案例来剖析供应链金融的国家风险。通过案例研究,我们可以了解商业银行在实际的供应链管理中是如何识别、评估和控制国家风险的。在对供应链金融国家风险的识别、评估和管理研究之后,本文得出了如下几个结论：第一,供应链金融的国家风险是客观存在的。通过对国家风险的识别和评估,本文发现国家风险涉及经济、政治、文化、宗教、自然环境等等各方面,诸如自然灾害风险等是人力不可抗拒的风险,如同地震、海啸一样,国家风险也是客观存在的,但是我们是可以利用工具预测和评估国家风险的大小及可控程度的。第二,供应链金融的国家风险是可以合理规避和降低的。通过贷前审核和贷后监督两个环节,银行是可以合理防范国家风险的,主要的风险防范手段有：风险规避、风险分散、过程控制、风险转移、风险补偿、损失控制等。目前国内研究供应链金融的文献已经相对较多了,但是与前人的研究相比,本文在三个方面有一定的新意：第一,新的研究视角。本文研究发现,前人对供应链金融的研究主要是在封闭的经济条件下进行的,即只考虑国内的情形,而不考虑国外因素影响。在全球化背景的冲击和影响下,在我国WTO保护期结束的情形下,我国企业生存发展所面临的制约因素已不仅仅局限于国内因素,对于国际因素的关注也是必不可少的。本文创新性的从商业银行的角度出发,来观察和研究国内和国际两个视角可能给我国供应链金融发展带来的风险点。第二,新的研究方法。前人在研究供应链金融风险的时候,一般都是采用定性的方法去分析,使用定量分析法或者将二者结合使用的学者较少。本文的创新之处在于,对于应链金融国家风险的研究,是以风险识别、评估、管理的基本流程为思路,采用定量分析与定性分析相结合、理论分析与案例分析相结合的方式来研究,这样便克服了以往学者研究方法中存在的主观性及片面性的问题。第三,新的风险内容。在封闭条件下,供应链金融模式存在着信用风险、操作风险、法律风险等等风险,我国学者基本上都是研究的供应链金融封闭条件下的风险。本文从开放的视角去研究供应链金融的风险点,提出了供应链金融的国家风险。当然,由于供应链金融涉及的内容较多,且其在我国建立的时间尚短,理论还不是很成熟,再加上本人学识有限,本文对于供应链金融国家风险的研究依然存在一些不足,进一步研究和拓展的空间还很大。一是本文对于供应链金融国家风险的研究主要是从一个比较系统的方面去阐述的,没有采用某种具体的方法去验证本文的结果。实际上,还可以选择某种具体的研究工具如VAR模型等来详细的研究一下国家风险的大小及如何才能更好的控制国家风险。二是供应链金融的信用风险可以利用信用利差期权工具来防范,价格风险可以利用期货等金融衍生工具来防范,本文认为保险和再保险是防范国家风险的有效工具,但是这种工具如何才能更好的帮助银行规避或者降低风险,这就需要进一步的研究。三是供应链金融都是以核心企业作为支撑的。但核心企业毕竟是有限的,不是所有中小企业都能够受到核心企业的庇护,如何建立一个没有核心企业支撑的供应链融资模式,是需要进一步研究的。
[Abstract]:Supply chain finance is to provide a comprehensive financial service to a single enterprise in an industrial supply chain or to a number of upstream and downstream enterprises in order to promote the stability and smooth flow of the chain of "production-supply-marketing" among the core enterprises in the supply chain and the supporting enterprises in the upstream and downstream of the supply chain. This is a brand-new financial service model, which combines supply chain management theory with bank management theory effectively and monitors information flow, logistics and capital flow as a whole. It not only effectively solves the financing problems of SMEs, but also for them. Banking products have opened up new sales markets, increased profit margins, and promoted the development of logistics industry.
Although the supply chain financial model can reduce the risks faced by banks to a certain extent, there are still some risks in the chain, and the national risk is one of them. As enterprises take the place of traditional nation-states and become the main body of globalization, they become the chain that transmits national risks to other countries and even the whole world, and become the biggest bearer and victim of national risks. Following the requirements of customers, their operation and management will also face more national risks, and the supply of financial services to banks and enterprises will inevitably be affected by national risks.
This paper combines quantitative analysis with qualitative analysis, theoretical analysis with classical case study, focusing on three aspects of supply chain financial national risk.
Firstly, how to identify the national risk. At present, the domestic and foreign scholars mainly focus on the risk of supply chain finance under closed conditions such as credit risk, and almost no one studies the national risk of supply chain finance. What is the national risk? What constitutes the national risk of supply chain finance? Specific national risk of supply chain finance. What is the content?
Second, how to evaluate the national risk. National risk is an objective phenomenon that exists at any time. How much is the national risk? How should we judge the size of the national risk? What indicators can be used to judge the national risk? Which evaluation method is the most appropriate?
Thirdly, how to control national risks. The ultimate purpose of identifying risks and assessing risks is to control risks. Then how should we control national risks? What measures are feasible? What measures should be taken according to different types of national risks? How much should the measures be used?
In addition to the questions raised in the first chapter and the basic conclusions drawn in the fifth chapter, this paper mainly uses three chapters to study the national risk of supply chain finance.
In the second chapter, how to identify the national risk is discussed systematically. This paper divides the national risk sources of supply chain finance into three categories: economic and financial risks, social and political risks and natural risks.
Chapter 3 systematically discusses how to evaluate and control national risk. For the study of national risk assessment methods, this paper carries out qualitative and quantitative analysis, and verifies the accuracy of national risk assessment results by combining with the assessment results of well-known international assessment institutions, which effectively overcomes the subjectivity of previous assessment results. For the study of national risk control, this paper proceeds from the two angles of pre-loan inspection and post-loan supervision, and takes different risk prevention measures according to the different needs of pre-loan and post-loan.
Chapter 4 chooses a typical case to analyze the national risk of supply chain finance. Through the case study, we can understand how commercial banks identify, evaluate and control the national risk in the actual supply chain management.
After discerning, evaluating and managing the national risk of supply chain finance, this paper draws the following conclusions:
Firstly, the national risk of supply chain finance exists objectively. Through identifying and evaluating the national risk, this paper finds that the national risk involves economic, political, cultural, religious, natural environment and other aspects, such as natural disaster risk is an irresistible human risk, just like earthquake, tsunami, national risk is also an objective existence. But we can use tools to predict and assess the size and controllability of country risks.
Second, the national risk of supply chain finance can be reasonably avoided and reduced. Through pre-loan audit and post-loan supervision, banks can reasonably guard against national risk. The main risk prevention means are risk aversion, risk dispersion, process control, risk transfer, risk compensation, loss control and so on.
At present, there are many literatures on Supply Chain Finance in China, but compared with previous studies, this paper has some new ideas in three aspects.
This paper finds that the predecessors'researches on supply chain finance are mainly carried out under closed economic conditions, that is, they only consider the domestic situation without considering the influence of foreign factors. Restricting factors are not only limited to domestic factors, but also essential to international factors. This paper innovatively observes and studies the risk points that domestic and international perspectives may bring to the development of supply chain finance in China from the perspective of commercial banks.
Second, new research methods. Previous studies on supply chain financial risks, generally using qualitative methods to analyze, using quantitative analysis or the combination of the two scholars less. The way of thinking is to combine quantitative analysis with qualitative analysis, and combine theoretical analysis with case analysis, so as to overcome the subjectivity and one-sidedness existing in the previous research methods of scholars.
Thirdly, the new risk content. Under the closed condition, the supply chain financial model has the risk of credit risk, operation risk, legal risk and so on. Our scholars are basically studying the risk under the closed condition of supply chain finance. Risk.
Of course, because supply chain finance involves a lot of content, and its establishment time in China is still short, the theory is not mature, coupled with my limited knowledge, this paper still has some shortcomings in the study of supply chain finance country risk, and there is still a lot of room for further research and development. In fact, we can choose some specific research tools such as VAR model to study the size of national risk and how to better control national risk. Second, supply chain finance. Credit risk can be prevented by credit spread options, and price risk can be prevented by financial derivatives such as futures. This paper argues that insurance and reinsurance are effective tools to prevent national risks, but how to better help banks avoid or reduce risks, this requires further study. The supply chain finance is supported by the core enterprises. But the core enterprises are limited after all. Not all SMEs can be sheltered by the core enterprises. How to establish a supply chain financing model without the support of the core enterprises needs further study.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.33

【参考文献】