中国商业银行盈利能力影响因素的实证研究

发布时间：2018-09-17 17:17

【摘要】：金融是经济的核心，在我国，银行在金融体系中占据着主导地位，商业银行竞争力水平的高低长期以来一直受到我国社会各界共同的关注，而提升商业银行竞争力水平的关键要素之一就是提高其盈利能力。改革开放以来特别是中国加入WTO以来，随着我国资本市场对外资银行的进一步开放，国内商业银行的生存与发展面临着更大的压力与挑战。中国商业银行要想在与外资银行的竞争中立于不败之地，，最重要的是要提高盈利水平，壮大自身实力。因此，在这种背景下，对中国商业银行盈利能力及其影响因素进行探讨有助于了解我国整个银行业的盈利能力状况，也有利于指导我国商业银行更好地应对外部挑战以及实现更有效的内部管理。本文首先主要介绍选题背景、研究目的和意义以及国内外对商业银行盈利能力影响因素的研究成果。接着在理论方面，本文从商业银行概念和经营原则两方面阐述商业银行，从盈利能力界定和商业银行盈利能力模式角度介绍了盈利能力的相关理论，最后对影响商业银行盈利能力的内外部影响因素作了规范分析，并相应地提出了7个理论假设—假设1：我国商业银行资本充足率与盈利能力之间存在显著的正相关关系；假设2：我国商业银行资产质量与其盈利能力之间存在正相关关系；假设3：非利息费用/平均资产与我国商业银行盈利能力显著负相关；假设4：我国商业银行存在规模经济现象，即银行规模与盈利能力之间存在显著的正相关关系；假设5：税收与我国商业银行盈利能力之间存在显著的负相关关系；假设6：宏观经济环境对我国商业银行盈利能力有显著的影响，并且汇率波动与盈利能力之间存在显著的负相关关系；假设7：金融结构对我国商业银行盈利能力具有显著的影响。在实证部分，本文首先结合我国情况构建了包括一个被解释变量和十三个解释变量的指标体系，数据选取的是我国目前16家上市银行中的14家银行2003年至2010年的面板数据。然后，在对我国国有商业银行和股份制商业银行有关指标进行描述性统计之后，分别对四家国有商业银行、十家股份制商业银行以及十四家商业银行的面板数据作线性回归。结论显示，资本充足率、营运效率、资产质量、存款占比、银行规模、GDP增长率、通货膨胀、汇率波动以及银行在我国的地位与银行盈利性正相关；税收与利率银行盈利性负相关；另外，银行垄断程度对不利于我国国有商业银行收益的增减，却有利于股份制商业银行收益的增加。在前文实证分析的基础上，本文在第四部分结合国内外经济发展形势，提出旨在提高我国商业银行盈利能力的对策和建议，具体包括：提高贷款质量；增强金融创新能力；建立行之有效的风险控制体系；引入战略投资者，吸引外资参股；降低银行集中度，促进银行有效竞争；创造良好的外部经济环境等。
[Abstract]:Finance is the core of the economy. In China, banks play a dominant role in the financial system. The level of competitiveness of commercial banks has long been the common concern of all walks of life in China. One of the key factors to enhance the competitiveness of commercial banks is to improve their profitability. Since the reform and opening up, especially China has joined the WTO. Since the WTO, with the further opening of China's capital market to foreign banks, the survival and development of domestic commercial banks are facing greater pressure and challenges. In order to remain invincible in the competition with foreign banks, the most important thing for Chinese commercial banks is to improve their profitability and strengthen their own strength. The profitability of Chinese commercial banks and its influencing factors are helpful to understand the profitability of the whole banking industry in China, and to guide Chinese commercial banks to better meet external challenges and achieve more effective internal management.
This paper first introduces the background of the topic, the purpose and significance of the study and the research results on the influencing factors of the profitability of commercial banks at home and abroad. Then, in theory, this paper expounds the commercial banks from the two aspects of the concept and operating principles of commercial banks, and introduces the profitability from the perspective of the definition of profitability and the profitability model of commercial banks. Finally, the paper makes a normative analysis of the internal and external factors affecting the profitability of commercial banks, and puts forward seven theoretical hypotheses: hypothesis 1: there is a significant positive correlation between the capital adequacy ratio and profitability of commercial banks in China; hypothesis 2: the asset quality and profitability of commercial banks in China There is a positive correlation between them; hypothesis 3: non-interest expenses / average assets and the profitability of commercial banks in China are significantly negative correlation; hypothesis 4: China's commercial banks exist economies of scale, that is, there is a significant positive correlation between bank size and profitability; hypothesis 5: there is a tax and profitability of commercial banks in China. Hypothesis 6: Macroeconomic environment has a significant impact on the profitability of Chinese commercial banks, and there is a significant negative correlation between exchange rate fluctuation and profitability; Hypothesis 7: Financial structure has a significant impact on the profitability of Chinese commercial banks.
In the empirical part, this paper firstly constructs an index system which includes an explanatory variable and 13 explanatory variables according to the situation of our country. The data is collected from the panel data of 14 banks of 16 listed banks in China from 2003 to 2010. Then, the relevant indexes of state-owned commercial banks and joint-stock commercial banks are analyzed. After descriptive statistics, the panel data of four state-owned commercial banks, ten joint-stock commercial banks and fourteen commercial banks are linearly regressed. In addition, the degree of Bank Monopoly is not conducive to the increase or decrease of the income of state-owned commercial banks, but is conducive to the increase of the income of joint-stock commercial banks.
On the basis of the above empirical analysis, the fourth part of this paper combines the domestic and foreign economic development situation, puts forward countermeasures and suggestions aimed at improving the profitability of China's commercial banks, including: improving the quality of loans; enhancing the financial innovation capability; establishing an effective risk control system; introducing strategic investors to attract foreign investment. Stocks, reduce banking concentration, promote effective competition among banks, and create a favorable external economic environment.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F830.42;F224

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