人民币汇率制度选择对经济影响研究
发布时间：2018-10-04 22:35
【摘要】：近年来，随着我国经济的快速增长，为我国累积了丰厚的外汇储备，但同时也导致人民币升值压力不断加大，表明缺乏弹性的汇率制度已不适合我国经济的持续发展。我国人民币汇率制度先后于1994年、2005年7月21日两次大的改革后，开始实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币、有管理的浮动汇率制度，标志着人民币汇率制度走上了更加市场化、更加灵活的轨道。汇率制度主要通过汇率行为影响贸易和投资，进而经济增长趋势和方式。在人民币升值压力持续加大以及资本项目可自由兑换进程加快的背景下，如何选择人民币汇率制度，是实施稳定的钉住汇率制，，还是实施更加灵活的浮动汇率制，以及汇率制度对我国经济增长的影响，对加快中国经济深度融入全球经济的进程，具有重要的理论和现实意义。 论文以汇率制度理论为指导，以人民币汇率制度为研究对象，在借鉴国内外研究成果的基础上，阐述了各种汇率制度的理论分歧以及对经济增长的影响。分析了汇率制度的历史变迁、分类和分布状况。以人民币汇率制度演变为切入点，构建了人民币汇率制度选择依据、原则、路径、目标和模式。分析了人民币汇率制度对经济增长、贸易、资本、货币政策等宏观经济指标的影响。从政策层面提出了完成人民币汇率制度改革的政策建议。 论文研究结论：一是在经济金融飞速发展的今天，我国目前的汇率制度已不能适应经济发展的需要。当前国际社会对人民币施加的升值压力，从表象看是汇率问题，但实际上是汇率制度深层次问题的放映。二是人民币汇率制度选择问题是我国的主权，应坚定不移地坚持自主性的原则。同时，要在权衡利弊、有利于经济发展的基础上，加快汇制改革步伐。三是人民币汇率制度改革的近期目标是实行目标区汇率制度，中期目标是实行管理浮动汇率制度，采取的模式应该是货币政策独立+资本完全流动+浮动汇率制，这符合中国经济市场化改革的要求。四是汇率行为是汇率制度的表现形式，汇率问题是表象，反映的是汇率制度深层次的问题，因此要解决国际社会对汇率的“热心”关注，关键是要在坚持自主性、渐进性的基础上，彻底改革人民币汇率制度制度。五是人民币汇率制度对经济增长有一定的影响作用，但存在滞后效应。汇率制度要同其他经济调控工具及相关经济政策配套使用，才能更有效地促进经济增长。六是人民币汇率制度改革是一项复杂的系统工程，需要政府主导、金融机构配合、企业和个人顺利适应的一项综合性改革。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid growth of China's economy, the accumulation of rich foreign exchange reserves for China, but also led to increasing pressure on the appreciation of the RMB, indicating that the inelastic exchange rate system is no longer suitable for the sustainable development of China's economy. After two major reforms in 1994 and July 21, 2005, China's RMB exchange rate system began to implement a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand and referring to a basket of currencies. Marked the RMB exchange rate regime on a more market-oriented, more flexible track. Exchange rate system mainly affects trade and investment through exchange rate behavior, and then economic growth trend and mode. Under the background of the increasing pressure of RMB appreciation and the acceleration of the process of capital account convertibility, how to choose the RMB exchange rate system is to implement a stable pegged exchange rate system or a more flexible floating exchange rate system. The influence of exchange rate system on China's economic growth is of great theoretical and practical significance in speeding up the process of China's deep integration into the global economy. Guided by the theory of exchange rate regime and taking RMB exchange rate regime as the research object, this paper expounds the theoretical differences of various exchange rate regimes and their effects on economic growth on the basis of reference of domestic and foreign research results. This paper analyzes the historical changes, classification and distribution of exchange rate system. Based on the evolution of RMB exchange rate system, this paper constructs the basis, principle, path, target and mode of RMB exchange rate system selection. This paper analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate regime on economic growth, trade, capital, monetary policy and other macroeconomic indicators. From the policy level, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to complete the reform of RMB exchange rate system. The main conclusions are as follows: first, with the rapid development of economy and finance, the current exchange rate system in China can not meet the needs of economic development. The current pressure exerted by the international community on the appreciation of the RMB is seen as a matter of exchange rate, but it is in fact a projection of the deep-seated issue of the exchange rate regime. Second, the choice of RMB exchange rate system is the sovereignty of our country, and we should firmly adhere to the principle of autonomy. At the same time, we should speed up the pace of exchange rate system reform on the basis of weighing advantages and disadvantages and beneficial to economic development. Third, the short-term goal of the reform of the RMB exchange rate system is to implement the target zone exchange rate system, and the medium-term goal is to implement the management floating exchange rate system. The model adopted should be the completely floating exchange rate system of independent capital of monetary policy. This is in line with the requirements of market-oriented reform of China's economy. Fourth, exchange rate behavior is the manifestation of the exchange rate system, and the exchange rate problem is a superficial one, reflecting the deep-seated problem of the exchange rate regime. Therefore, to solve the international community's "enthusiastic" concern about the exchange rate, the key is to insist on its autonomy. On the basis of gradual reform of RMB exchange rate system. Fifth, RMB exchange rate system has certain influence on economic growth, but it has lag effect. The exchange rate system should be used in conjunction with other economic control tools and related economic policies in order to promote economic growth more effectively. Sixthly, the reform of RMB exchange rate system is a complex systematic project, which needs government leading, financial institutions to cooperate, enterprises and individuals to adapt to a comprehensive reform.
【学位授予单位】：西北农林科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.61
本文编号：2252135
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid growth of China's economy, the accumulation of rich foreign exchange reserves for China, but also led to increasing pressure on the appreciation of the RMB, indicating that the inelastic exchange rate system is no longer suitable for the sustainable development of China's economy. After two major reforms in 1994 and July 21, 2005, China's RMB exchange rate system began to implement a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand and referring to a basket of currencies. Marked the RMB exchange rate regime on a more market-oriented, more flexible track. Exchange rate system mainly affects trade and investment through exchange rate behavior, and then economic growth trend and mode. Under the background of the increasing pressure of RMB appreciation and the acceleration of the process of capital account convertibility, how to choose the RMB exchange rate system is to implement a stable pegged exchange rate system or a more flexible floating exchange rate system. The influence of exchange rate system on China's economic growth is of great theoretical and practical significance in speeding up the process of China's deep integration into the global economy. Guided by the theory of exchange rate regime and taking RMB exchange rate regime as the research object, this paper expounds the theoretical differences of various exchange rate regimes and their effects on economic growth on the basis of reference of domestic and foreign research results. This paper analyzes the historical changes, classification and distribution of exchange rate system. Based on the evolution of RMB exchange rate system, this paper constructs the basis, principle, path, target and mode of RMB exchange rate system selection. This paper analyzes the impact of RMB exchange rate regime on economic growth, trade, capital, monetary policy and other macroeconomic indicators. From the policy level, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to complete the reform of RMB exchange rate system. The main conclusions are as follows: first, with the rapid development of economy and finance, the current exchange rate system in China can not meet the needs of economic development. The current pressure exerted by the international community on the appreciation of the RMB is seen as a matter of exchange rate, but it is in fact a projection of the deep-seated issue of the exchange rate regime. Second, the choice of RMB exchange rate system is the sovereignty of our country, and we should firmly adhere to the principle of autonomy. At the same time, we should speed up the pace of exchange rate system reform on the basis of weighing advantages and disadvantages and beneficial to economic development. Third, the short-term goal of the reform of the RMB exchange rate system is to implement the target zone exchange rate system, and the medium-term goal is to implement the management floating exchange rate system. The model adopted should be the completely floating exchange rate system of independent capital of monetary policy. This is in line with the requirements of market-oriented reform of China's economy. Fourth, exchange rate behavior is the manifestation of the exchange rate system, and the exchange rate problem is a superficial one, reflecting the deep-seated problem of the exchange rate regime. Therefore, to solve the international community's "enthusiastic" concern about the exchange rate, the key is to insist on its autonomy. On the basis of gradual reform of RMB exchange rate system. Fifth, RMB exchange rate system has certain influence on economic growth, but it has lag effect. The exchange rate system should be used in conjunction with other economic control tools and related economic policies in order to promote economic growth more effectively. Sixthly, the reform of RMB exchange rate system is a complex systematic project, which needs government leading, financial institutions to cooperate, enterprises and individuals to adapt to a comprehensive reform.
【学位授予单位】：西北农林科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.61
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