国际货币体系新架构:后金融危机时代的研究

发布时间：2018-10-08 19:01

【摘要】：本文旨在探讨金融危机之后国际货币体系的演变。我们首先分析国际金融危机爆发前世界经济发展基本格局,其特点包括新兴市场国家快速增长,国际贸易与全球化的飞速推进,以及全球金融深化、跨境资本流动金额迅速上升,这导致世界经济对具有普遍良好信用的国际货币的需求大大增加。与此密切相关的是危机爆发前国际货币体系的三大特点:(1)美元成为各国中央银行最为倚重的储备货币,事实上成为超级货币;(2)欧元的快速崛起;(3)美国货币政策以及美元货币条件对全球经济具有巨大影响力和冲击力。基于这些分析,我们论证,国际金融危机之后,现行国际货币体系难以为继,尤其是因为美元信用基础发生了根本性的动摇,其超级国际货币的地位必然丧失。我们认为金融危机后的国际货币体系有两种主要可能的演变方向,一是各国通力合作创造出超主权国际货币;二是欧元以及人民币不断崛起,与美元形成三足鼎立的多基准货币的新国际货币体系。我们论证,第二种可能性更大。我们建议,中国应长期倡导并参与国际货币体系的改革,积极参与IMF改革,以彰显中国作为一个崛起中的大国积极推动国际合作的风范;但是,由于各种国际政治力量的干扰,我们必须做好第二种情形的准备,人民币国际化是我们最为现实和有效的选择,而中国的长期贸易顺差则是人民币国际化的必要基础。
[Abstract]:This paper aims to explore the evolution of the international monetary system after the financial crisis. We first analyze the basic pattern of world economic development before the outbreak of the international financial crisis, which is characterized by the rapid growth of emerging market countries, the rapid development of international trade and globalization, and the deepening of global finance. The rapid rise in cross-border capital flows has led to a surge in the world economy's demand for a universally creditworthy international currency. Closely related to this is the three major features of the international monetary system before the crisis: (1) the United States dollar became the most heavily dependent reserve currency for central banks. In fact, it has become a super currency; (2) the rapid rise of the euro; (3) U.S. monetary policy and the dollar's currency conditions have tremendous influence and impact on the global economy. Based on these analyses, we argue that after the international financial crisis, the current international monetary system cannot sustain itself, especially because the dollar credit base has been fundamentally shaken, and its status as a super international currency must be lost. We believe that the international monetary system after the financial crisis has two main possible directions of evolution. One is the joint efforts of all countries to create a super-sovereign international currency; the other is the continuous rise of the euro and the renminbi. A new international monetary system with a three-pronged multi-benchmark currency against the dollar. We argue that the second is more likely. We suggest that China should advocate and participate in the reform of the international monetary system for a long time and take an active part in the reform of the IMF, so as to demonstrate China's style of actively promoting international cooperation as a rising power; however, due to the interference of various international political forces, We must prepare for the second scenario. RMB internationalization is our most realistic and effective choice, and China's long-term trade surplus is the necessary basis for RMB internationalization.
【作者单位】：清华大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：中国人民银行奖励计划教育部长江学者奖励计划国家自然科学基金(项目号:70473048)的支持
【分类号】：F821

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