人民币升值对出口商品价格传递效应及应对策略研究
发布时间：2018-10-09 15:58
【摘要】：从中国2005年7月21日人民币汇率制度实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节，有管理的浮动汇率制度以来，人民币汇率呈现双向波动，长期升值的趋势。在人民币持续升值的七年多的时间内，中国总体还是分行业的贸易收支顺差较大状况并没有逆转，某些行业贸易顺差还有不断增加的趋势，特别是我国机电产品、化学工业产品等出口增长上升趋势明显。总的来看，中国贸易结构不断改善，但不同类别行业发展速度存在差异。传统的国际收支理论无法解释这种现象。本文利用汇率不完全传递理论考察不同出口行业特殊的市场结构和产业组织结构以及企业微观定价行为来进行分析，以期得到人民币升值对中国出口商品价格的传导效应及其原因。为出口企业转嫁汇率风险、提高竞争力提出应对措施，同时为中国的汇率政策、出口贸易战略、经济增长方式以及货币政策提出指导性的政策建议。 本文基于HS商品分类下12类主要制造业商品从2005年7月到2011年12月的数据，利用面板数据模型，实证检验了人民币汇率变动对不同行业出口商品价格传递弹性的差异。总体而言，在人民币升值期间，各行业的汇率传递效应是不完全的，出口商都通过降低本币出口价格吸收了一部分汇率变动。分行业来看，汇率对传统的劳动密集型产品出口价格传递弹性较小，汇率对我国主要资本技术含量较高的制造业类产品出口价格传递弹性较大。在进一步考虑汇率及技术创新会降低生产成本影响因素后，发现大部分出口产品汇率弹性减小。 基于理论与实证的研究基础，结合中国不同行业的实际情况，，本文从出口产品的市场势力、对国外市场的依赖程度、出口产品竞争优势多方面探讨了人民币汇率不完全传递的原因。在此基础上，本文提出我国出口企业在转嫁汇率风险能力较低的情况下，通过增加原材料进口、提高市场集中度、增强技术创新能力减少成本是可行的措施。从根本上来说，只有进一步完善人民币汇率形成机制，调整我国出口贸易战略，转变我国的经济增长方式，包括通过有效提高内需、转变高投入、高消耗增长方式、增强自主创新能力，提高经济增长的质量和效益等，才能实现我国内外经济的平衡发展。
[Abstract]:Since the RMB exchange rate system was implemented in China on July 21, 2005, based on the market supply and demand, with reference to a basket of currencies to adjust, the managed floating exchange rate system has shown a trend of two-way fluctuations and long-term appreciation. During the more than seven years of continuous appreciation of the RMB, China's overall trade surplus has not been reversed by industry, and the trade surplus in some industries has continued to increase, especially in China's machinery and electrical products. Chemical industrial products and other export growth trend is obvious. Overall, China's trade structure continues to improve, but there are differences in the speed of development of different categories of industries. Traditional balance of payments theory can not explain this phenomenon. Based on the exchange rate incomplete transfer theory, this paper analyzes the special market structure and industrial organization structure of different export industries, as well as the micro pricing behavior of enterprises. In order to obtain the RMB appreciation of China's export commodity price conduction effect and its reasons. The paper puts forward some countermeasures for export enterprises to pass on exchange rate risk and improve competitiveness, at the same time, it puts forward some guiding policy suggestions for China's exchange rate policy, export trade strategy, economic growth mode and monetary policy. Based on the data from July 2005 to December 2011 of 12 kinds of main manufacturing commodities under HS commodity classification, this paper empirically tests the difference between RMB exchange rate change and price transfer elasticity of export commodities in different industries by using panel data model. Overall, the effect of exchange rate transmission across sectors was incomplete during the appreciation of the yuan, with exporters absorbing some of the exchange rate movements by lowering export prices in their currencies. By industry, the exchange rate has less elasticity to the export price of the traditional labor-intensive products, and the exchange rate has a greater elasticity to the export price of the manufacturing products with higher capital and technology content. After further consideration of exchange rate and technological innovation, it is found that the exchange rate elasticity of most export products is reduced. Based on the theoretical and empirical research basis, combined with the actual situation of different industries in China, this paper from the market power of export products, the degree of dependence on foreign markets, This paper discusses the reasons of incomplete transmission of RMB exchange rate from many aspects of competitive advantage of export products. On this basis, this paper puts forward that it is feasible to increase the import of raw materials, increase the market concentration and enhance the ability of technological innovation to reduce the cost of the export enterprises in our country under the condition that the transfer of exchange rate risk ability is low. Fundamentally speaking, only by further improving the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, adjusting our export trade strategy, and transforming our country's economic growth mode, including by effectively increasing domestic demand, changing the pattern of high investment and high consumption, Only by enhancing the ability of independent innovation and improving the quality and benefit of economic growth can we achieve balanced economic development at home and abroad.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F752.62;F832.6;F224
[Abstract]:Since the RMB exchange rate system was implemented in China on July 21, 2005, based on the market supply and demand, with reference to a basket of currencies to adjust, the managed floating exchange rate system has shown a trend of two-way fluctuations and long-term appreciation. During the more than seven years of continuous appreciation of the RMB, China's overall trade surplus has not been reversed by industry, and the trade surplus in some industries has continued to increase, especially in China's machinery and electrical products. Chemical industrial products and other export growth trend is obvious. Overall, China's trade structure continues to improve, but there are differences in the speed of development of different categories of industries. Traditional balance of payments theory can not explain this phenomenon. Based on the exchange rate incomplete transfer theory, this paper analyzes the special market structure and industrial organization structure of different export industries, as well as the micro pricing behavior of enterprises. In order to obtain the RMB appreciation of China's export commodity price conduction effect and its reasons. The paper puts forward some countermeasures for export enterprises to pass on exchange rate risk and improve competitiveness, at the same time, it puts forward some guiding policy suggestions for China's exchange rate policy, export trade strategy, economic growth mode and monetary policy. Based on the data from July 2005 to December 2011 of 12 kinds of main manufacturing commodities under HS commodity classification, this paper empirically tests the difference between RMB exchange rate change and price transfer elasticity of export commodities in different industries by using panel data model. Overall, the effect of exchange rate transmission across sectors was incomplete during the appreciation of the yuan, with exporters absorbing some of the exchange rate movements by lowering export prices in their currencies. By industry, the exchange rate has less elasticity to the export price of the traditional labor-intensive products, and the exchange rate has a greater elasticity to the export price of the manufacturing products with higher capital and technology content. After further consideration of exchange rate and technological innovation, it is found that the exchange rate elasticity of most export products is reduced. Based on the theoretical and empirical research basis, combined with the actual situation of different industries in China, this paper from the market power of export products, the degree of dependence on foreign markets, This paper discusses the reasons of incomplete transmission of RMB exchange rate from many aspects of competitive advantage of export products. On this basis, this paper puts forward that it is feasible to increase the import of raw materials, increase the market concentration and enhance the ability of technological innovation to reduce the cost of the export enterprises in our country under the condition that the transfer of exchange rate risk ability is low. Fundamentally speaking, only by further improving the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, adjusting our export trade strategy, and transforming our country's economic growth mode, including by effectively increasing domestic demand, changing the pattern of high investment and high consumption, Only by enhancing the ability of independent innovation and improving the quality and benefit of economic growth can we achieve balanced economic development at home and abroad.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F752.62;F832.6;F224
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