热钱流入对住宅类房地产价格影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-10-14 10:07

【摘要】：近年来,随着人民币的不断升值和中美利差的加大,热钱大量流入我国,特别是房地产市场。然而,热钱如同一把“双刃剑”,其在促进国内经济发展的同时,亦会引起资产价格的快速上涨,甚至形成资产泡沫,一旦该领域无利可图,热钱将大量流出,最终可能会造成资产泡沫的破灭,甚至导致危机。因此,如何利用热钱促进房地产业健康发展,同时有效地防止热钱恶意炒作房价,这需要我们能够合理地度量热钱流入规模,以及正确认识热钱流入对房地产价格的影响。本文主要研究热钱流入对住宅类房地产价格的影响,重点对热钱流入我国规模进行度量,并建立了热钱与住宅类房价相关指标的VAR模型,进行实证研究。在热钱流入规模度量上,侧重研究隐藏在FDI的热钱。研究方法是构建FDI的九个影响指标,并建立了FDI的预测模型,将FDI实际值与预测值的差额作为隐藏在FDI中的热钱。本文对所构建的VAR模型进行实证检验,得出结论：(1)热钱与住宅类房价是呈正相关关系的；(2)热钱与住宅类房价存在长期均衡关系,但是,热钱流入并不是住宅类房价的主要原因；(3)热钱变动并不能格兰杰引起经济房房价变动；(4)住宅类房价对热钱冲击呈正负交替的响应,即没有持久效应,相比较而言,高档住宅对热钱冲击的响应最明显也最持久；(5)热钱对高档住宅的贡献度最大达到28.26%,而对经济房的只有1.84%。最后,本文针对实证结果提出建立多部门合作机制,监控热钱流动,并合理引导热钱流向等政策建议,并提出研究展望。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the appreciation of RMB and the increase of interest rate difference between China and America, hot money flows into our country, especially the real estate market. However, hot money is like a "double-edged sword". While promoting domestic economic development, it will also cause a rapid rise in asset prices and even form an asset bubble. Once this area is unprofitable, hot money will flow out in large quantities. Eventually, it could lead to the bursting of asset bubbles and even crisis. Therefore, how to use hot money to promote the healthy development of real estate and effectively prevent hot money malicious speculation of house prices, which requires us to reasonably measure the scale of hot money inflows, and correctly understand the impact of hot money inflows on real estate prices. This paper mainly studies the influence of hot money inflow on housing real estate prices, especially measures the scale of hot money inflow into our country, and establishes the VAR model of hot money and housing price related indexes, and carries on the empirical research. In the hot money inflow scale measurement, focuses on the research hidden in the FDI hot money. The research method is to construct nine influence indexes of FDI and establish the prediction model of FDI. The difference between the actual value of FDI and the predicted value is regarded as the hot money hidden in FDI. This paper empirically tests the VAR model and draws the following conclusions: (1) the relationship between hot money and housing prices is positive; (2) there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between hot money and housing prices, however, The inflow of hot money is not the main reason of housing price; (3) the change of hot money can not cause Granger to change the house price; (4) the housing price has a positive or negative response to the impact of hot money, that is, there is no lasting effect. The response of high-grade housing to hot money shock is the most obvious and the most lasting; (5) the contribution of hot money to high-grade housing reaches 28.26, but only 1.84 to economic housing. Finally, based on the empirical results, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions such as establishing a multi-sector cooperation mechanism, monitoring the flow of hot money, and reasonably guiding the flow of hot money, and puts forward the research prospect.
【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F299.23;F832.5

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