国际货币的选择:基于外汇储备职能的分析

发布时间：2018-10-17 21:57

【摘要】：中国作为正在崛起的经济和贸易大国,如何在世界货币游戏规则中谋求与经济和贸易地位相匹配的国际货币地位显得尤为重要。本文从国际货币职能之一外汇储备职能出发,选用1965~2008年间主要国际货币发行国的货币影响因素作为自变量,将国际货币占世界外汇储备的比重作为因变量,建立实证模型以证实货币国际化的影响因素。本文结论显示,除传统的基本因素外,强化因素由于包含了更多的未来信息,有助于解释国际货币的长期和结构性趋势。进一步地,我们根据选择的回归方程和未来经济情形的假设,对四大货币在1965~2020年间占世界外汇储备的比重进行了拟合与预测,指出在可预见的未来,人民币尚无法挑战美元和欧元的国际货币地位,但在外汇储备职能中达到与日元相当的国际化程度可能性很大。
[Abstract]:As a rising economic and trade power, it is very important for China to seek the international monetary status matching the economic and trade status in the rules of the world currency game. Starting from one of the functions of international currency, this paper selects the currency influence factors of the major international currency issuers in 19652008 as independent variables, and takes the proportion of international currency in the world foreign exchange reserve as dependent variable. An empirical model is established to prove the influence factors of currency internationalization. The conclusion of this paper shows that, in addition to the traditional basic factors, the strengthening factors are helpful to explain the long-term and structural trends of the international currency because they contain more information about the future. Furthermore, based on the selected regression equation and the assumptions of the future economic situation, we have fitted and predicted the share of the four major currencies in the world's foreign exchange reserves during the period 1965-2020, pointing out that in the foreseeable future, The yuan is not yet able to challenge the international currency status of the dollar and the euro, but it is likely to be as internationalized as the yen in the reserve function.
【作者单位】：复旦大学经济学院世界经济研究所;复旦大学中国社会主义经济研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然基金项目(项目批准号:70873021) 复旦大学亚洲研究中心项目 Eurasia Pacific UninetOEAD Fund资助
【分类号】：F821

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