基于制造业A股上市公司的财务困境预警研究
发布时间：2018-10-19 17:33
【摘要】：公司财务困境预警是公司财务管理的重要研究领域之一。财务困境的发生是一个渐进的过程，因此财务困境发生之前是有征兆，并且是可以预测的。本文以我国在沪深两市上市的A股制造业公司为研究对象，研究的主要目的是建立一个公司财务困境预警模型并用于预测。 本文把因财务状况异常而被ST作为公司陷入财务困境的界定标准，并依据此标准选取了2009-2011年因财务状况异常而被ST的41家A股制造业上市公司作为样本并对其进行1:2配对，即选择了41家ST公司和82家非ST公司作为建模样本。本文选取2012年的A股制造业公司作为检验样本，对模型进行检验，最后利用模型预测2013年陷入财务困境可能性较大的上市制造业公司。 在指标的选取上，本文选取了财务指标，并引入公司治理方面的非财务指标，，使用Logistic回归模型分别构建财务困境预警模型。研究结果显示，引入公司治理指标后模型的解释力和预测准确率均有所提高，公司治理指标在财务困境方面也具有一定的预警作用。
[Abstract]:Early warning of corporate financial distress is one of the important research fields of corporate financial management. The occurrence of financial distress is a gradual process, so there are signs of financial distress before it occurs, and it can be predicted. In this paper, A share manufacturing companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets are taken as the research object. The main purpose of this study is to establish an early warning model of corporate financial distress and apply it to forecast. In this paper, ST is regarded as the definition standard of financial distress because of abnormal financial situation. According to this criterion, 41 A-share manufacturing companies listed by ST in 2009-2011 are selected as samples and matched at 1:2. That is, 41 ST companies and 82 non-ST companies were selected as modeling samples. In this paper, A share manufacturing companies in 2012 are selected as test samples to test the model. Finally, the model is used to predict the listed manufacturing companies that are likely to be in financial distress in 2013. In the selection of indicators, this paper selects the financial indicators, and introduces the non-financial indicators of corporate governance, using the Logistic regression model to build the financial distress warning model. The results show that the explanatory power and prediction accuracy of the model are improved after the introduction of corporate governance indicators, and the corporate governance indicators also play a certain role in early warning of financial distress.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F275;F832.51
本文编号：2281846
[Abstract]:Early warning of corporate financial distress is one of the important research fields of corporate financial management. The occurrence of financial distress is a gradual process, so there are signs of financial distress before it occurs, and it can be predicted. In this paper, A share manufacturing companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets are taken as the research object. The main purpose of this study is to establish an early warning model of corporate financial distress and apply it to forecast. In this paper, ST is regarded as the definition standard of financial distress because of abnormal financial situation. According to this criterion, 41 A-share manufacturing companies listed by ST in 2009-2011 are selected as samples and matched at 1:2. That is, 41 ST companies and 82 non-ST companies were selected as modeling samples. In this paper, A share manufacturing companies in 2012 are selected as test samples to test the model. Finally, the model is used to predict the listed manufacturing companies that are likely to be in financial distress in 2013. In the selection of indicators, this paper selects the financial indicators, and introduces the non-financial indicators of corporate governance, using the Logistic regression model to build the financial distress warning model. The results show that the explanatory power and prediction accuracy of the model are improved after the introduction of corporate governance indicators, and the corporate governance indicators also play a certain role in early warning of financial distress.
【学位授予单位】：华中科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F275;F832.51
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前7条
1 李华中;上市公司经营失败的预警系统研究[J];财经研究;2001年10期
2 张鸣,程涛;上市公司财务预警实证研究的动态视角[J];财经研究;2005年01期
3 周峗;唐炜;;上市公司财务指标比较及预警分析——来自房地产行业的实证[J];财会通讯(学术版);2006年04期
4 邓晓岚;;基于宏观经济因素的公司经营困境风险评价[J];武汉理工大学学报(信息与管理工程版);2007年07期
5 何小媚;梁艺敏;;企业财务预警模型研究问题及发展方向分析[J];现代商贸工业;2011年14期
6 杨淑娥,黄礼;基于BP神经网络的上市公司财务预警模型[J];系统工程理论与实践;2005年01期
7 杨保安,季海,徐晶,温金祥;BP神经网络在企业财务危机预警之应用[J];预测;2001年02期
本文编号：2281846
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/guanlilunwen/huobilw/2281846.html
