系统性金融风险演进与风险抑制研究

发布时间：2018-10-21 11:16

【摘要】：20世纪90年代以来,伴随着世界范围内大规模金融自由化浪潮,金融危机频繁爆发,对部分国家乃至全球经济带来巨大影响。在对危机的反思中,金融体系内生系统性风险的动态机制开始引起关注。次贷危机爆发进而演化成全球金融危机,更是暴露出系统性金融风险的巨大危害和传统金融监管体制识别、预警、防范和处置系统性金融风险的不足。但到目前为止,国内外对系统性金融风险的界定、动态演进机理及抑制等问题的认识都有待于进一步完善和深化。本文首先从历史经验的角度,对系统性金融风险的主要特征及其历史演变进行了梳理和归纳,试图提出一个更能反映其内涵和外延的定义,从而明确本文研究对象。其次,本文分别从金融体系亲周期性、特定冲击与系统重要性金融机构、金融拓扑结构和信贷紧缩等角度分析了系统性金融风险累积、触发、传导三个阶段的内生机制。在此基础上,本文在资产价格波动系统性效应的分析框架下,对上述因素和机制进行整合,完整分析了系统性金融风险的演进机理。随后,本文从风险预警、防范、处置三个方面探讨了抑制系统性金融风险的制度设计,从系统性金融风险的时空维度探讨了宏观审慎监管工具的设计问题。在对制度和工具的研究中,既对其理论基础进行分析,也对设计原则、思路、主要难题及解决方案等一般性的问题进行探讨,并结合国际经验对其有效性进行验证。最后,本文在对中国金融体系系统性风险的特征、制度根源、主要领域和测度方法进行分析的基础上,提出了中国抑制系统性金融风险的总体思路,并进一步开展了有针对性、可操作性的政策研究。
[Abstract]:Since the 1990s, with the large-scale financial liberalization in the world, the financial crisis broke out frequently, which brought great influence to some countries and even the global economy. In the reflection of the crisis, the dynamic mechanism of endogenous systemic risk in the financial system began to attract attention. The outbreak of the sub-prime mortgage crisis has evolved into a global financial crisis, which exposes the great harm of systemic financial risk and the deficiency of traditional financial supervision system to identify, warn, prevent and deal with systemic financial risk. So far, however, the definition of systemic financial risk, dynamic evolution mechanism and inhibition need to be further improved and deepened at home and abroad. In this paper, the main characteristics and historical evolution of systemic financial risk are analyzed and summarized from the perspective of historical experience, and a definition that reflects its connotation and extension is proposed to clarify the research object of this paper. Secondly, this paper analyzes the endogenous mechanisms of systemic financial risk accumulation, trigger and transmission from the perspective of pro-periodicity of financial system, specific impact and systemically important financial institutions, financial topology and credit crunch. On this basis, under the analysis frame of systematic effect of asset price fluctuation, this paper integrates the above factors and mechanisms, and analyzes the evolution mechanism of systemic financial risk. Then, this paper discusses the institutional design of suppressing systemic financial risk from three aspects of risk warning, prevention and disposal, and discusses the design of macro-prudential supervision tools from the space-time dimension of systemic financial risk. In the research of system and tools, it not only analyzes the theoretical basis, but also discusses the general problems, such as design principles, ideas, main problems and solutions, and verifies its validity with international experience. Finally, based on the analysis of the characteristics, institutional roots, main fields and measurement methods of the systemic risk in China's financial system, this paper puts forward the general idea of suppressing the systemic financial risk in China, and further develops the targeted approach. Operational policy research.
【学位授予单位】：南京农业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F830.99;F832.0

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