人民币汇率与中美贸易收支关系的实证研究
发布时间：2018-10-31 09:48
【摘要】：中美两国是当今世界上最令人注目的两大经济体,影响着世界经济发展的大势,中美之间的贸易问题长期以来引起了世界各国的广泛关注。近年来,中美贸易格局基本上是以中国的贸易顺差以及美国的贸易逆差不断攀升为基本背景的。随着中美贸易的发展,中美之间的贸易摩擦也不断加剧。由大量的贸易赤字导致美国相关产业劳动岗位的流失,这使得美国国内贸易保护主义者不断挑起中美双边贸易的争端,争论的核心问题之一就是人民币汇率问题。由于中国贸易顺差的不断扩大,国际上对于人民币汇率被操纵,人民币币值被低估的言论甚嚣尘上。美国认为人民币币值严重低估是造成其贸易赤字的主要原因,因此近年来,美国一再对中国施压要求人民币升值,以解决其严重的贸易赤字问题,但是人民币汇率政策是否是导致中美贸易失衡的主要原因,人民币对美元升值是否能够成为解决问题的关键,值得探讨。文章构建实证分析模型,选取1995年第一季度至2010年第四季度的季度数据,建立VAR模型并运用Johansen协整检验和向量误差修正模型(VECM)等计量经济学方法实证分析了人民币兑美元实际汇率与中美贸易收支之间是否具有长期和短期均衡关系,通过协整检验发现无论是从汇率变量的t统计量看还是系数看,中美出口、进口、中美贸易收支与人民币兑美元实际汇率之间的长期均衡关系不显著,也就是说从长期来看美国对中国施压要求人民币升值并不能有效地缓解美对华的贸易赤字问题。在短期内通过向量误差修正模型得出,人民币兑美元实际汇率波动会对中美之间的出口、进口和贸易收支产生一定的影响,但是这种影响会在较短时间内消失,进而恢复到长期均衡状态。总而言之,不论是长期效应还是短期影响,人民币兑美元实际汇率波动都不能对中美出口、进口和中美贸易收支产生较大的影响,人民币升值并不能逆转中美贸易不平衡的现状,进而验证了美国给中国施压要求人民币升值是另有他因,而并非为了缓解中美之间的贸易摩擦问题。中国和美国的国内需求是影响中美贸易收支的主要因素,其中美国的国内需求对中美贸易不平衡起决定性作用。最后,本文分析了中美贸易失衡的主要原因,并对如何缓解中美贸易不平衡提出政策建议。
[Abstract]:China and the United States are the two most remarkable economies in the world today, which affect the development of the world economy. The trade between China and the United States has long been the focus of attention in the world. In recent years, the trade pattern between China and the United States is basically based on China's trade surplus and the rising trade deficit of the United States. With the development of Sino-American trade, the trade frictions between the two countries are becoming more and more serious. A large trade deficit has led to the loss of jobs in related industries in the United States, which has led to domestic trade protectionism incessantly provoking disputes between China and the United States in bilateral trade. One of the core issues of the dispute is the issue of the RMB exchange rate. As China's trade surplus continues to expand, international talk of currency manipulation and undervaluation of the yuan is rife. The United States believes that the serious undervaluation of the renminbi is the main cause of its trade deficit. Therefore, in recent years, the United States has repeatedly pressed China to appreciate the renminbi in order to solve its serious trade deficit problem. But whether the yuan exchange rate policy is the main cause of the trade imbalance between China and the United States, and whether the appreciation of the yuan against the dollar will be the key to solving the problem, is worth discussing. This paper constructs an empirical analysis model and selects the quarterly data from the first quarter of 1995 to the fourth quarter of 2010. The VAR model is established and econometrics methods such as Johansen cointegration test and vector error correction model (VECM) are used to empirically analyze whether there is a long-term and short-term equilibrium relationship between RMB / US dollar real exchange rate and Sino-US trade balance. Through cointegration test, it is found that the long-term equilibrium relationship between Sino-American exports, imports, Sino-US trade balance and the real exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is not significant in terms of the t statistics of the exchange rate variables or the coefficient. In other words, in the long run, U.S. pressure on China to revalue the yuan will not be effective in alleviating the U.S. trade deficit with China. In the short term, vector error correction model shows that the real exchange rate fluctuations of RMB / US dollar will have a certain impact on exports, imports and trade balance between China and the United States, but this effect will disappear in a relatively short period of time. And then return to the long-term equilibrium state. In a word, no matter whether it is a long-term effect or a short-term effect, the fluctuations in the real exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar cannot have a greater impact on Sino-US exports, imports, and Sino-US trade balance. The appreciation of the yuan does not reverse the trade imbalance between China and the United States, confirming that there is another reason why the United States is pressuring China to appreciate, not to ease trade frictions between China and the United States. The domestic demand of China and the United States is the main factor influencing the trade balance between China and the United States, and the domestic demand of the United States plays a decisive role in the trade imbalance between China and the United States. Finally, this paper analyzes the main causes of the trade imbalance between China and the United States, and puts forward policy recommendations on how to alleviate the trade imbalance between China and the United States.
【学位授予单位】：延边大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.7;F224
[Abstract]:China and the United States are the two most remarkable economies in the world today, which affect the development of the world economy. The trade between China and the United States has long been the focus of attention in the world. In recent years, the trade pattern between China and the United States is basically based on China's trade surplus and the rising trade deficit of the United States. With the development of Sino-American trade, the trade frictions between the two countries are becoming more and more serious. A large trade deficit has led to the loss of jobs in related industries in the United States, which has led to domestic trade protectionism incessantly provoking disputes between China and the United States in bilateral trade. One of the core issues of the dispute is the issue of the RMB exchange rate. As China's trade surplus continues to expand, international talk of currency manipulation and undervaluation of the yuan is rife. The United States believes that the serious undervaluation of the renminbi is the main cause of its trade deficit. Therefore, in recent years, the United States has repeatedly pressed China to appreciate the renminbi in order to solve its serious trade deficit problem. But whether the yuan exchange rate policy is the main cause of the trade imbalance between China and the United States, and whether the appreciation of the yuan against the dollar will be the key to solving the problem, is worth discussing. This paper constructs an empirical analysis model and selects the quarterly data from the first quarter of 1995 to the fourth quarter of 2010. The VAR model is established and econometrics methods such as Johansen cointegration test and vector error correction model (VECM) are used to empirically analyze whether there is a long-term and short-term equilibrium relationship between RMB / US dollar real exchange rate and Sino-US trade balance. Through cointegration test, it is found that the long-term equilibrium relationship between Sino-American exports, imports, Sino-US trade balance and the real exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is not significant in terms of the t statistics of the exchange rate variables or the coefficient. In other words, in the long run, U.S. pressure on China to revalue the yuan will not be effective in alleviating the U.S. trade deficit with China. In the short term, vector error correction model shows that the real exchange rate fluctuations of RMB / US dollar will have a certain impact on exports, imports and trade balance between China and the United States, but this effect will disappear in a relatively short period of time. And then return to the long-term equilibrium state. In a word, no matter whether it is a long-term effect or a short-term effect, the fluctuations in the real exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar cannot have a greater impact on Sino-US exports, imports, and Sino-US trade balance. The appreciation of the yuan does not reverse the trade imbalance between China and the United States, confirming that there is another reason why the United States is pressuring China to appreciate, not to ease trade frictions between China and the United States. The domestic demand of China and the United States is the main factor influencing the trade balance between China and the United States, and the domestic demand of the United States plays a decisive role in the trade imbalance between China and the United States. Finally, this paper analyzes the main causes of the trade imbalance between China and the United States, and puts forward policy recommendations on how to alleviate the trade imbalance between China and the United States.
【学位授予单位】：延边大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6;F752.7;F224
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