特殊条件下我国国际收支可持续性研究

发布时间：2018-11-04 10:07

【摘要】：国际收支可持续性是一国宏观金融安全的重要组成部分,现有的相关文献主要是研究和平时期我国国际收支的失衡问题及其宏观经济效应,如何防范我国国际收支双顺差所带来的外汇储备增长过快,以及由此引发的基础货币发行量过大,最终造成资产和消费品价格上涨的现象。但是这些研究都是建立在我国的经济建设处于一个和平稳定的发展时期,在当前国际金融危机不断深化、演进的过程中,经济困境可能会引发某些周边国家的政治动荡,一旦有了重大的突发事件,在特殊条件下我国国际收支的可持续性将会面临严峻的挑战,产生较大的风险。本文对特殊条件下我国国际收支的可持续性进行研究,分析了特殊时期我国国际收支的结构存在的问题,对特殊条件下国际收支的风险因素进行了探讨,最后针对如何保持特殊条件下国际收支的可持续性,维护我国宏观经济的稳定性提出了相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Balance of payments sustainability is an important part of a country's macro-financial security. The existing literature mainly studies the imbalance of China's balance of payments in peacetime and its macroeconomic effects. How to prevent the excessive growth of foreign exchange reserves brought by the double surplus of balance of payments and the excessive circulation of the basic currency, which will eventually lead to the rise in the prices of assets and consumer goods. However, these studies are all based on the fact that China's economic construction is in a period of peaceful and stable development. In the process of deepening and evolving the current international financial crisis, economic difficulties may lead to political turmoil in some neighboring countries. Once there is a major emergency, the sustainability of our balance of payments will face a severe challenge under special conditions, which will lead to greater risks. This paper studies the sustainability of China's balance of payments under special conditions, analyzes the problems existing in the structure of China's balance of payments in the special period, and probes into the risk factors of international balance of payments under special conditions. Finally, some policy suggestions on how to maintain the sustainability of international balance of payments under special conditions and maintain the stability of China's macro economy are put forward.
【作者单位】：复旦大学国际金融系;北京大学光华管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(70603008) 国家社科基金(07BJY153) 教育部人文社会科学青年基金(05JC790091)
【分类号】：F832.6

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