关于外汇波动的机遇与风险的研究
发布时间：2018-11-10 08:25
【摘要】：本文首先介绍了全球外汇市场的概况，从全球外汇市场的起源入手，详细介绍了国际外汇市场的规模和特点。考虑到我国自2005年汇改以来的种种努力，本文特别介绍了我国外汇市场的形成与发展以及我国外汇市场的交易状况。 为了说明一个风险，人们首先要了解这个风险的根源。对于全球外汇市场，外汇波动就是市场风险的根源。所以，本问介绍了波动的理论原理与成因分析。结合我国人民币浮动的内外因素，本文介绍了人民币波动的特征。为了分析种种波动，本文还介绍了几种广泛应用的波动分析工具。 在介绍了外汇市场的波动之后，作者试图通过介绍外汇风险与衡量方法导出人民币波动的风险与实证分析。通过作者研究发现，目前世界上还没有一种模型或者工具可以通过分析一种或几种因素的变化来准确预测外汇波动的变化。某些学者试图通过金融工具量化出一个因素的变化对某种汇率的影响或者汇率的变化对经济因素的影响。然后，由于影响汇率的因素多种多样，，通过这样的分析得出的结论未必能直接反映在真实的变化上，甚至可能和事实的趋势背道而驰。所以，在目前阶段，通过金融工具做出的外汇模型更多地停留于理论研究方面。 既然无法准确预估外汇的波动，那么就要探讨如何控制外汇波动对中国所带来的影响。本文从宏观经济，国内企业和外资企业三个角度阐述应对外汇波动，特别是人民币升值所采用的策略。
[Abstract]:This paper first introduces the general situation of the global foreign exchange market, starting with the origin of the global foreign exchange market, introduces in detail the scale and characteristics of the international foreign exchange market. Considering the efforts of China since the exchange rate reform in 2005, this paper introduces the formation and development of China's foreign exchange market and the trading situation of our country's foreign exchange market. To illustrate a risk, one must first understand the root causes of the risk. For the global foreign exchange market, foreign exchange volatility is the root of market risk. Therefore, this question introduces the theory of fluctuation and causes of analysis. Combined with the internal and external factors of RMB floating in China, this paper introduces the characteristics of RMB fluctuation. In order to analyze all kinds of fluctuations, this paper also introduces several widely used fluctuation analysis tools. After introducing the volatility of foreign exchange market, the author tries to deduce the risk and empirical analysis of RMB volatility by introducing foreign exchange risk and measuring methods. Through the author's research, there is no model or tool in the world that can accurately predict the change of foreign exchange volatility by analyzing the change of one or more factors. Some scholars try to quantify the influence of the change of a factor on a certain exchange rate or the influence of the change of exchange rate on economic factors by means of financial instruments. Then, because of the variety of factors affecting the exchange rate, the conclusions from this analysis may not be directly reflected in the real changes, and may even run counter to the actual trend. Therefore, at the present stage, the foreign exchange model made by financial instruments is more focused on theoretical research. Since it is impossible to accurately estimate the volatility of foreign exchange, it is necessary to explore how to control the impact of foreign exchange volatility on China. In this paper, the strategies of dealing with foreign exchange fluctuations, especially RMB appreciation, are discussed from three angles: macro economy, domestic enterprises and foreign enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.52
本文编号：2321919
[Abstract]:This paper first introduces the general situation of the global foreign exchange market, starting with the origin of the global foreign exchange market, introduces in detail the scale and characteristics of the international foreign exchange market. Considering the efforts of China since the exchange rate reform in 2005, this paper introduces the formation and development of China's foreign exchange market and the trading situation of our country's foreign exchange market. To illustrate a risk, one must first understand the root causes of the risk. For the global foreign exchange market, foreign exchange volatility is the root of market risk. Therefore, this question introduces the theory of fluctuation and causes of analysis. Combined with the internal and external factors of RMB floating in China, this paper introduces the characteristics of RMB fluctuation. In order to analyze all kinds of fluctuations, this paper also introduces several widely used fluctuation analysis tools. After introducing the volatility of foreign exchange market, the author tries to deduce the risk and empirical analysis of RMB volatility by introducing foreign exchange risk and measuring methods. Through the author's research, there is no model or tool in the world that can accurately predict the change of foreign exchange volatility by analyzing the change of one or more factors. Some scholars try to quantify the influence of the change of a factor on a certain exchange rate or the influence of the change of exchange rate on economic factors by means of financial instruments. Then, because of the variety of factors affecting the exchange rate, the conclusions from this analysis may not be directly reflected in the real changes, and may even run counter to the actual trend. Therefore, at the present stage, the foreign exchange model made by financial instruments is more focused on theoretical research. Since it is impossible to accurately estimate the volatility of foreign exchange, it is necessary to explore how to control the impact of foreign exchange volatility on China. In this paper, the strategies of dealing with foreign exchange fluctuations, especially RMB appreciation, are discussed from three angles: macro economy, domestic enterprises and foreign enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.52
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