人民币国际化的收益与成本分析

发布时间：2018-11-11 14:13

【摘要】：在过去的几十年中，中国快速增加的经济水平以及其与世界其他国家经济交流合作的不断深入，已经使得中国的国际地位有了很大的提升。早在98年至97年的亚洲金融危机期间，在周边其他国家货币不断贬值的时候，中国就因为其对人民币币值的稳定做出的努力而给其他国家留下了一个负责任的大国的形象。而如今，中国不仅仅是世界第三大经济体、第二大贸易国，也是全球外汇储备总量最多的国家。中国再也不是全球经济运行的旁观者，而是置身其中，其货币对于世界其他国家的影响也越来越大了。当下，有关人民币国际化的一切也成为了中国决策层和理论界关注的热点。文章伊始，笔者将会收集关于人民币国际化的文献，，尤其是有关人民币国际化收益与成本的文献进行综述。至今为止，对于货币国际化的收益与成本的研究与分析，学者们已经有了比较的系统的方法和理论，其各自研究得出的观点与结论也不尽相同。总结完前人的研究成果之后，文章将结合中国当前的经济环境，探讨什么是货币国际化、货币国际化的条件以及人民币国际化的程度等问题。为下文阐述人民币国际化的成本与收益作铺垫。然后，文章将结合我国的实际情形，收集国内的数据，结合前人的各种理论，分别从收益与成本的角度对人民币国际化的问题进行理论与数量上的研究。关于人民币国际化收益部分，铸币税的收益分析将成为重点，结合实证分析，文章将不仅将从数量上估算出人民币国际铸币税的收益，还要对其变化进行剖析。而有关人民币国际化成本部分，则会更关注国内的货币替代风险，通过实证分析文章将研究货币替代现象在中国的现状，并分析影响中国货币替代现象各种因素对其影响的程度。最后，基于全文的分析和我国现实国情，作者将会对人民币国际化的程度、收益与成本以及人民币国际化的路径得出几点总结。除此之外，文章还将会根据人民币国际化收益和成本的理论和实证分析，对于如何促进人民币国际化的进程给出相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In the past few decades, China's rapidly increasing economic level and the deepening of its economic exchanges and cooperation with the rest of the world have greatly enhanced China's international status. As early as 1998 and 1997, during the Asian financial crisis, as the currencies of other neighboring countries depreciated, China left the image of a responsible big country to other countries because of its efforts to stabilize the value of the renminbi. Today, China is not only the world's third largest economy, the second largest trading nation, but also the world's largest foreign exchange reserves. China is no longer a bystander to the functioning of the global economy. It is in it, and its currency is having a growing impact on the rest of the world. At present, all about RMB internationalization has become the focus of Chinese policy-making and theoretical circles. At the beginning of the article, the author will collect the literature about RMB internationalization, especially the literature about RMB internationalization income and cost. Up to now, there have been systematic methods and theories for the study and analysis of the income and cost of currency internationalization, and their respective viewpoints and conclusions are different. After summing up the previous research results, the article will discuss what is currency internationalization, the condition of currency internationalization and the degree of RMB internationalization, combining with the current economic environment of China. For the following expounding the RMB internationalization costs and benefits to pave the way. Then, the article will combine our country's actual situation, collect the domestic data, combine all kinds of theories of predecessors, separately carry on the theoretical and quantitative research on RMB internationalization from the angle of income and cost. On the part of RMB internationalization income, the analysis of seigniorage income will become the key point. Combining with the empirical analysis, the paper will not only estimate the RMB international seigniorage income from the quantity, but also analyze the change of RMB international seigniorage tax. On the part of RMB internationalization cost, it will pay more attention to the risk of currency substitution in China. Through empirical analysis, the paper will study the current situation of currency substitution in China. It also analyzes the influence of various factors on Chinese currency substitution. Finally, based on the analysis of the full text and the reality of our country, the author will summarize the degree of RMB internationalization, the benefits and costs, and the path of RMB internationalization. In addition, based on the theoretical and empirical analysis of the RMB internationalization benefits and costs, the paper gives some policy recommendations on how to promote the RMB internationalization process.
【学位授予单位】：南京财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F832.6

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